Opinion Poll by MMR, 11–14 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.6% 22.0–25.4% 21.5–25.9% 21.1–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.8% 12.5–15.2% 12.1–15.6% 11.8–16.0% 11.2–16.7%
Píratar 9.2% 13.6% 12.3–15.0% 11.9–15.4% 11.6–15.8% 11.0–16.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.1–14.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.1% 10.0–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.8–13.9%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.4% 8.3–10.6% 8.0–11.0% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.7% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–19
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–10
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 19% 97%  
16 22% 78% Last Result
17 35% 57% Median
18 18% 22%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100% Last Result
8 14% 98%  
9 35% 84% Median
10 32% 49%  
11 16% 17%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 2% 100%  
8 22% 98%  
9 48% 76% Median
10 21% 28%  
11 7% 7%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 5% 99.9%  
7 44% 95%  
8 38% 50% Median
9 11% 12%  
10 1.5% 1.5%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 6% 99.9%  
7 18% 94%  
8 63% 76% Last Result, Median
9 7% 13%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100% Last Result
5 12% 99.5%  
6 59% 88% Median
7 26% 29%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 12% 99.9%  
5 55% 88% Median
6 30% 33%  
7 2% 3% Last Result
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 0% 30%  
2 0% 30%  
3 25% 30%  
4 5% 5% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 69% 30–34 30–34 29–35 29–35
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 33 77% 30–34 30–35 29–35 29–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 20% 28–32 28–32 27–33 26–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 30 6% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 24–28 24–28 23–29 22–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 24–28 24–28 23–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 23–27 23–27 22–28 22–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 22–26 22–26 22–27 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 19–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 21–24 20–25 19–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 18–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 15–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 17 0% 15–18 15–19 14–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 12–14 11–15 11–15 11–16

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.5% 100%  
29 3% 99.5%  
30 8% 97%  
31 19% 89%  
32 37% 69% Majority
33 18% 32% Median
34 12% 15%  
35 2% 3% Last Result
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100% Last Result
29 4% 99.5%  
30 8% 95%  
31 10% 87%  
32 26% 77% Median, Majority
33 32% 51%  
34 12% 19%  
35 5% 6%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.4%  
28 9% 96%  
29 19% 87%  
30 26% 68% Median
31 21% 42%  
32 16% 20% Majority
33 4% 4% Last Result
34 0.8% 0.9%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.8%  
27 6% 99.2%  
28 14% 93%  
29 16% 79%  
30 37% 63% Median
31 20% 27% Last Result
32 6% 6% Majority
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.8% 100%  
23 3% 99.2%  
24 11% 96% Last Result
25 14% 86%  
26 27% 71% Median
27 29% 44%  
28 11% 15%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.7% 0.7%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.7% 100%  
23 3% 99.2% Last Result
24 7% 96%  
25 22% 88%  
26 26% 66% Median
27 27% 41%  
28 13% 14%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 3% 99.6%  
23 11% 97%  
24 23% 86%  
25 28% 63% Median
26 23% 35% Last Result
27 9% 12%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.8%  
22 5% 98.7%  
23 19% 94%  
24 21% 75% Last Result
25 33% 54% Median
26 17% 20%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 10% 98%  
23 14% 88%  
24 38% 73%  
25 18% 36% Median
26 15% 18%  
27 3% 3% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.8% 100%  
20 3% 99.2% Last Result
21 11% 96%  
22 24% 85%  
23 34% 61% Median
24 20% 27%  
25 6% 7%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 3% 99.7%  
20 7% 97%  
21 18% 90%  
22 27% 72% Median
23 25% 45%  
24 15% 20%  
25 5% 5% Last Result
26 0.6% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.6% 100%  
19 4% 99.3%  
20 14% 96%  
21 17% 82%  
22 32% 64% Median
23 26% 32% Last Result
24 5% 6%  
25 0.8% 0.8%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 2% 99.5%  
19 10% 98%  
20 37% 88%  
21 24% 50% Median
22 19% 26%  
23 5% 7%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 8% 98%  
16 21% 90%  
17 32% 69% Median
18 26% 37% Last Result
19 9% 11%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 10% 97%  
16 34% 88%  
17 33% 54% Last Result, Median
18 15% 21%  
19 5% 7%  
20 1.0% 1.1%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 11% 97%  
15 43% 87%  
16 29% 43% Median
17 11% 15%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 8% 99.5%  
12 35% 91%  
13 28% 57% Median
14 23% 28%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations