Opinion Poll by MMR, 11–14 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.6% |
22.0–25.4% |
21.5–25.9% |
21.1–26.3% |
20.3–27.2% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.8% |
12.5–15.2% |
12.1–15.6% |
11.8–16.0% |
11.2–16.7% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.6% |
12.3–15.0% |
11.9–15.4% |
11.6–15.8% |
11.0–16.5% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.4% |
10.2–12.8% |
9.9–13.2% |
9.6–13.5% |
9.1–14.2% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.1% |
10.0–12.5% |
9.6–12.9% |
9.3–13.2% |
8.8–13.9% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.4% |
8.3–10.6% |
8.0–11.0% |
7.7–11.3% |
7.2–11.9% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.0% |
7.0–9.2% |
6.7–9.5% |
6.5–9.8% |
6.1–10.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.7% |
3.9–5.6% |
3.7–5.9% |
3.6–6.2% |
3.2–6.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
2.5% |
2.0–3.3% |
1.9–3.5% |
1.7–3.7% |
1.5–4.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
15 |
19% |
97% |
|
16 |
22% |
78% |
Last Result |
17 |
35% |
57% |
Median |
18 |
18% |
22% |
|
19 |
4% |
4% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
14% |
98% |
|
9 |
35% |
84% |
Median |
10 |
32% |
49% |
|
11 |
16% |
17% |
|
12 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
22% |
98% |
|
9 |
48% |
76% |
Median |
10 |
21% |
28% |
|
11 |
7% |
7% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
44% |
95% |
|
8 |
38% |
50% |
Median |
9 |
11% |
12% |
|
10 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
18% |
94% |
|
8 |
63% |
76% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
7% |
13% |
|
10 |
5% |
6% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
12% |
99.5% |
|
6 |
59% |
88% |
Median |
7 |
26% |
29% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
12% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
55% |
88% |
Median |
6 |
30% |
33% |
|
7 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
70% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
30% |
|
2 |
0% |
30% |
|
3 |
25% |
30% |
|
4 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
32 |
69% |
30–34 |
30–34 |
29–35 |
29–35 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
77% |
30–34 |
30–35 |
29–35 |
29–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
20% |
28–32 |
28–32 |
27–33 |
26–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
6% |
28–31 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
22–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
22–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
19–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
15–19 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
17 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–19 |
14–19 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
13 |
0% |
12–14 |
11–15 |
11–15 |
11–16 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
29 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
30 |
8% |
97% |
|
31 |
19% |
89% |
|
32 |
37% |
69% |
Majority |
33 |
18% |
32% |
Median |
34 |
12% |
15% |
|
35 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
30 |
8% |
95% |
|
31 |
10% |
87% |
|
32 |
26% |
77% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
32% |
51% |
|
34 |
12% |
19% |
|
35 |
5% |
6% |
|
36 |
2% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
9% |
96% |
|
29 |
19% |
87% |
|
30 |
26% |
68% |
Median |
31 |
21% |
42% |
|
32 |
16% |
20% |
Majority |
33 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
6% |
99.2% |
|
28 |
14% |
93% |
|
29 |
16% |
79% |
|
30 |
37% |
63% |
Median |
31 |
20% |
27% |
Last Result |
32 |
6% |
6% |
Majority |
33 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
24 |
11% |
96% |
Last Result |
25 |
14% |
86% |
|
26 |
27% |
71% |
Median |
27 |
29% |
44% |
|
28 |
11% |
15% |
|
29 |
4% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.2% |
Last Result |
24 |
7% |
96% |
|
25 |
22% |
88% |
|
26 |
26% |
66% |
Median |
27 |
27% |
41% |
|
28 |
13% |
14% |
|
29 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
22 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
23 |
11% |
97% |
|
24 |
23% |
86% |
|
25 |
28% |
63% |
Median |
26 |
23% |
35% |
Last Result |
27 |
9% |
12% |
|
28 |
2% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
5% |
98.7% |
|
23 |
19% |
94% |
|
24 |
21% |
75% |
Last Result |
25 |
33% |
54% |
Median |
26 |
17% |
20% |
|
27 |
3% |
4% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
10% |
98% |
|
23 |
14% |
88% |
|
24 |
38% |
73% |
|
25 |
18% |
36% |
Median |
26 |
15% |
18% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.2% |
Last Result |
21 |
11% |
96% |
|
22 |
24% |
85% |
|
23 |
34% |
61% |
Median |
24 |
20% |
27% |
|
25 |
6% |
7% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
7% |
97% |
|
21 |
18% |
90% |
|
22 |
27% |
72% |
Median |
23 |
25% |
45% |
|
24 |
15% |
20% |
|
25 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
19 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
20 |
14% |
96% |
|
21 |
17% |
82% |
|
22 |
32% |
64% |
Median |
23 |
26% |
32% |
Last Result |
24 |
5% |
6% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
26 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
19 |
10% |
98% |
|
20 |
37% |
88% |
|
21 |
24% |
50% |
Median |
22 |
19% |
26% |
|
23 |
5% |
7% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
8% |
98% |
|
16 |
21% |
90% |
|
17 |
32% |
69% |
Median |
18 |
26% |
37% |
Last Result |
19 |
9% |
11% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
10% |
97% |
|
16 |
34% |
88% |
|
17 |
33% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
15% |
21% |
|
19 |
5% |
7% |
|
20 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
11% |
97% |
|
15 |
43% |
87% |
|
16 |
29% |
43% |
Median |
17 |
11% |
15% |
|
18 |
3% |
4% |
|
19 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
11 |
8% |
99.5% |
|
12 |
35% |
91% |
|
13 |
28% |
57% |
Median |
14 |
23% |
28% |
|
15 |
5% |
5% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–14 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1025
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.60%