Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–31 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
25.0% |
24.1–25.9% |
23.9–26.2% |
23.6–26.4% |
23.2–26.9% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.9% |
15.2–16.7% |
15.0–16.9% |
14.8–17.1% |
14.4–17.5% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.6% |
11.0–12.3% |
10.8–12.5% |
10.6–12.7% |
10.3–13.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.6% |
11.0–12.3% |
10.8–12.5% |
10.6–12.7% |
10.3–13.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.3% |
9.7–11.0% |
9.5–11.2% |
9.4–11.3% |
9.1–11.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
9.0% |
8.4–9.6% |
8.2–9.8% |
8.1–10.0% |
7.8–10.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.0% |
8.4–9.6% |
8.2–9.8% |
8.1–10.0% |
7.8–10.3% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.7% |
3.3–4.1% |
3.2–4.2% |
3.1–4.3% |
3.0–4.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.5% |
3.1–3.9% |
3.0–4.0% |
3.0–4.1% |
2.8–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
17 |
34% |
98% |
|
18 |
25% |
64% |
Median |
19 |
39% |
39% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
17% |
100% |
|
11 |
77% |
83% |
Median |
12 |
6% |
6% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
55% |
100% |
Median |
8 |
42% |
45% |
|
9 |
3% |
3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
42% |
100% |
|
8 |
54% |
58% |
Median |
9 |
4% |
4% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
8% |
100% |
|
7 |
86% |
92% |
Median |
8 |
6% |
6% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
7% |
100% |
|
6 |
89% |
93% |
Median |
7 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
5% |
100% |
|
6 |
89% |
95% |
Median |
7 |
6% |
6% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
99.8% |
32–34 |
32–34 |
32–35 |
32–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
32 |
58% |
31–32 |
30–32 |
30–33 |
30–33 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
9% |
30–31 |
29–32 |
29–32 |
29–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
0.2% |
29–31 |
29–31 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–30 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
25–26 |
24–26 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
24–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
24 |
0% |
24–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
19 |
0% |
19–20 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
18–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
18–19 |
18–20 |
17–20 |
17–20 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–16 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
13 |
0% |
13–14 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
13 |
0% |
13–14 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
12–15 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
32 |
38% |
99.8% |
Majority |
33 |
27% |
61% |
Median |
34 |
30% |
34% |
|
35 |
4% |
4% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
9% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
33% |
91% |
Median |
32 |
55% |
58% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
6% |
100% |
|
30 |
61% |
94% |
Median |
31 |
24% |
33% |
|
32 |
9% |
9% |
Majority |
33 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
30% |
96% |
|
30 |
27% |
66% |
Median |
31 |
38% |
38% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
35% |
96% |
|
29 |
26% |
61% |
Median |
30 |
35% |
35% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
37% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
29% |
63% |
Median |
27 |
29% |
34% |
|
28 |
4% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
9% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
35% |
91% |
Median |
26 |
54% |
56% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
5% |
100% |
|
24 |
58% |
95% |
Median |
25 |
30% |
37% |
|
26 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
62% |
95% |
Median |
25 |
23% |
32% |
Last Result |
26 |
9% |
9% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
3% |
100% |
|
24 |
31% |
97% |
|
25 |
27% |
65% |
Median |
26 |
39% |
39% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
2% |
100% |
|
23 |
35% |
98% |
Last Result |
24 |
25% |
63% |
Median |
25 |
38% |
38% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
4% |
100% |
|
23 |
29% |
96% |
|
24 |
27% |
67% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
39% |
40% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
2% |
100% |
|
19 |
58% |
98% |
Median |
20 |
32% |
40% |
|
21 |
8% |
8% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
5% |
100% |
|
18 |
59% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
30% |
36% |
|
20 |
6% |
6% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
32% |
100% |
|
15 |
28% |
68% |
Median |
16 |
37% |
40% |
|
17 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
57% |
99.8% |
Median |
14 |
36% |
43% |
|
15 |
6% |
6% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
2% |
100% |
|
13 |
57% |
98% |
Median |
14 |
35% |
41% |
|
15 |
6% |
6% |
|
16 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–31 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 3715
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.99%