Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–31 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.0% 24.1–25.9% 23.9–26.2% 23.6–26.4% 23.2–26.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.9% 15.2–16.7% 15.0–16.9% 14.8–17.1% 14.4–17.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.6% 11.0–12.3% 10.8–12.5% 10.6–12.7% 10.3–13.0%
Píratar 9.2% 11.6% 11.0–12.3% 10.8–12.5% 10.6–12.7% 10.3–13.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.3% 9.7–11.0% 9.5–11.2% 9.4–11.3% 9.1–11.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.0% 8.4–9.6% 8.2–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.0% 8.4–9.6% 8.2–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.7% 3.3–4.1% 3.2–4.2% 3.1–4.3% 3.0–4.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.5% 3.1–3.9% 3.0–4.0% 3.0–4.1% 2.8–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 17–19 17–19 17–19 16–19
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–11 10–12 10–12 10–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–9
Píratar 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–9
Viðreisn 4 7 7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100% Last Result
17 34% 98%  
18 25% 64% Median
19 39% 39%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 17% 100%  
11 77% 83% Median
12 6% 6%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 55% 100% Median
8 42% 45%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 42% 100%  
8 54% 58% Median
9 4% 4%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 8% 100%  
7 86% 92% Median
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 7% 100%  
6 89% 93% Median
7 4% 4% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100%  
6 89% 95% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 33 99.8% 32–34 32–34 32–35 32–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 58% 31–32 30–32 30–33 30–33
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 9% 30–31 29–32 29–32 29–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 30 0.2% 29–31 29–31 28–31 28–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 0% 28–30 28–30 27–30 27–30
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–28 25–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–26 24–26 24–27 24–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 24–25 23–26 23–26 23–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 24–25 23–26 23–26 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 25 0% 24–26 24–26 23–26 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 23–25 23–25 22–25 22–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 19 0% 19–20 19–21 19–21 18–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 18–19 18–20 17–20 17–20
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–17 14–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 13–14 13–15 13–15 13–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 13–14 13–15 13–15 12–15

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 38% 99.8% Majority
33 27% 61% Median
34 30% 34%  
35 4% 4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 9% 99.9%  
31 33% 91% Median
32 55% 58% Majority
33 3% 3%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 6% 100%  
30 61% 94% Median
31 24% 33%  
32 9% 9% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 4% 99.9%  
29 30% 96%  
30 27% 66% Median
31 38% 38% Last Result
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 4% 99.9%  
28 35% 96%  
29 26% 61% Median
30 35% 35%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100% Last Result
25 37% 99.9%  
26 29% 63% Median
27 29% 34%  
28 4% 4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 9% 99.9%  
25 35% 91% Median
26 54% 56%  
27 3% 3% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 5% 100%  
24 58% 95% Median
25 30% 37%  
26 7% 7% Last Result
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 5% 99.9%  
24 62% 95% Median
25 23% 32% Last Result
26 9% 9%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 3% 100%  
24 31% 97%  
25 27% 65% Median
26 39% 39%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 2% 100%  
23 35% 98% Last Result
24 25% 63% Median
25 38% 38%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 4% 100%  
23 29% 96%  
24 27% 67% Last Result, Median
25 39% 40%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 2% 100%  
19 58% 98% Median
20 32% 40%  
21 8% 8%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 5% 100%  
18 59% 95% Last Result, Median
19 30% 36%  
20 6% 6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 32% 100%  
15 28% 68% Median
16 37% 40%  
17 3% 3% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 57% 99.8% Median
14 36% 43%  
15 6% 6%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 57% 98% Median
14 35% 41%  
15 6% 6%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations