Opinion Poll by MMR, 4–9 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.7% |
20.0–23.5% |
19.6–24.0% |
19.2–24.5% |
18.4–25.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
15.0% |
13.6–16.6% |
13.2–17.1% |
12.8–17.5% |
12.2–18.2% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.9% |
12.6–15.5% |
12.2–15.9% |
11.8–16.3% |
11.2–17.1% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.4% |
9.2–11.8% |
8.8–12.1% |
8.6–12.5% |
8.0–13.2% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.2% |
9.0–11.5% |
8.6–11.9% |
8.4–12.3% |
7.8–13.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.0% |
7.9–10.3% |
7.5–10.7% |
7.3–11.0% |
6.8–11.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.7% |
7.7–10.0% |
7.3–10.4% |
7.1–10.7% |
6.6–11.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.4% |
4.6–6.5% |
4.3–6.8% |
4.1–7.1% |
3.7–7.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.5% |
3.8–5.5% |
3.6–5.8% |
3.4–6.1% |
3.0–6.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
10% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
23% |
90% |
|
15 |
47% |
67% |
Median |
16 |
11% |
20% |
Last Result |
17 |
6% |
9% |
|
18 |
3% |
4% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
31% |
97% |
|
10 |
29% |
65% |
Median |
11 |
32% |
36% |
|
12 |
4% |
4% |
|
13 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
14% |
98% |
|
9 |
44% |
84% |
Median |
10 |
34% |
40% |
|
11 |
5% |
5% |
|
12 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
36% |
96% |
|
7 |
46% |
59% |
Median |
8 |
12% |
14% |
|
9 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
30% |
94% |
|
7 |
30% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
18% |
34% |
|
9 |
16% |
16% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
25% |
97% |
|
6 |
58% |
72% |
Median |
7 |
13% |
14% |
|
8 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
5% |
100% |
|
5 |
36% |
95% |
|
6 |
45% |
59% |
Median |
7 |
12% |
15% |
|
8 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
25% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.1% |
75% |
|
2 |
0% |
75% |
|
3 |
44% |
75% |
Median |
4 |
29% |
30% |
Last Result |
5 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
72% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.1% |
28% |
|
2 |
0% |
28% |
|
3 |
24% |
28% |
|
4 |
4% |
4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
32 |
59% |
30–34 |
29–34 |
29–35 |
28–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
29 |
4% |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
24–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
0.8% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–31 |
24–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
27 |
0.9% |
25–29 |
24–30 |
24–31 |
24–32 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
26 |
0.1% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
22–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
20–26 |
19–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
18–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
18–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–22 |
17–22 |
16–23 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
17 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
12–16 |
12–16 |
11–16 |
10–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
12 |
0% |
11–14 |
11–14 |
10–15 |
9–16 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
29 |
6% |
98% |
|
30 |
13% |
92% |
|
31 |
20% |
79% |
|
32 |
25% |
59% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
18% |
34% |
|
34 |
11% |
16% |
|
35 |
3% |
5% |
|
36 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
99.4% |
|
26 |
3% |
98% |
|
27 |
13% |
95% |
|
28 |
29% |
82% |
|
29 |
19% |
53% |
Median |
30 |
21% |
34% |
|
31 |
8% |
13% |
|
32 |
3% |
4% |
Majority |
33 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
3% |
98% |
|
26 |
17% |
95% |
|
27 |
19% |
78% |
|
28 |
30% |
59% |
Median |
29 |
21% |
29% |
|
30 |
6% |
8% |
|
31 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
5% |
94% |
|
26 |
17% |
89% |
|
27 |
29% |
72% |
|
28 |
20% |
43% |
Median |
29 |
14% |
23% |
|
30 |
6% |
8% |
|
31 |
2% |
3% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
24 |
12% |
97% |
Last Result |
25 |
23% |
85% |
|
26 |
27% |
62% |
Median |
27 |
19% |
35% |
|
28 |
11% |
16% |
|
29 |
3% |
5% |
|
30 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
7% |
98% |
|
23 |
20% |
91% |
Last Result |
24 |
37% |
71% |
Median |
25 |
18% |
34% |
|
26 |
11% |
16% |
|
27 |
4% |
5% |
|
28 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
21 |
10% |
96% |
|
22 |
23% |
86% |
|
23 |
24% |
63% |
Median |
24 |
21% |
40% |
|
25 |
15% |
19% |
Last Result |
26 |
3% |
4% |
|
27 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
3% |
98.5% |
|
20 |
9% |
95% |
|
21 |
35% |
86% |
|
22 |
26% |
51% |
Median |
23 |
15% |
25% |
|
24 |
7% |
10% |
|
25 |
2% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
11% |
97% |
|
21 |
20% |
86% |
|
22 |
32% |
66% |
Median |
23 |
22% |
34% |
Last Result |
24 |
9% |
12% |
|
25 |
3% |
4% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
13% |
93% |
|
21 |
27% |
80% |
|
22 |
31% |
53% |
Median |
23 |
13% |
21% |
|
24 |
5% |
8% |
|
25 |
3% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
13% |
93% |
|
20 |
28% |
80% |
|
21 |
27% |
52% |
Median |
22 |
15% |
24% |
|
23 |
7% |
10% |
|
24 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
13% |
97% |
|
20 |
24% |
84% |
Last Result |
21 |
39% |
60% |
Median |
22 |
13% |
21% |
|
23 |
6% |
9% |
|
24 |
2% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
6% |
98% |
|
18 |
11% |
92% |
|
19 |
34% |
81% |
|
20 |
22% |
47% |
Median |
21 |
18% |
25% |
|
22 |
5% |
7% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
18% |
98% |
|
16 |
24% |
80% |
|
17 |
26% |
56% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
23% |
30% |
|
19 |
6% |
7% |
|
20 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
6% |
98% |
|
15 |
28% |
93% |
|
16 |
32% |
64% |
Median |
17 |
23% |
32% |
|
18 |
7% |
9% |
Last Result |
19 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
11 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
12 |
10% |
96% |
|
13 |
29% |
86% |
|
14 |
28% |
57% |
Median |
15 |
19% |
29% |
|
16 |
9% |
10% |
|
17 |
2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
10 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
11 |
12% |
95% |
|
12 |
41% |
83% |
|
13 |
25% |
42% |
Median |
14 |
13% |
17% |
|
15 |
4% |
4% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–9 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 926
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.38%