Opinion Poll by MMR, 4–9 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.7% 20.0–23.5% 19.6–24.0% 19.2–24.5% 18.4–25.4%
Píratar 9.2% 15.0% 13.6–16.6% 13.2–17.1% 12.8–17.5% 12.2–18.2%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.9% 12.6–15.5% 12.2–15.9% 11.8–16.3% 11.2–17.1%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.4% 9.2–11.8% 8.8–12.1% 8.6–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.4–12.3% 7.8–13.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.5–10.7% 7.3–11.0% 6.8–11.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.1–10.7% 6.6–11.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.7–7.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.1% 3.0–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 13–16 13–17 13–18 13–18
Píratar 6 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–13
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–9 5–9 5–9 5–10
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 4–7 4–8 4–8
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 10% 99.8%  
14 23% 90%  
15 47% 67% Median
16 11% 20% Last Result
17 6% 9%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 31% 97%  
10 29% 65% Median
11 32% 36%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.9% 0.9%  
14 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100% Last Result
8 14% 98%  
9 44% 84% Median
10 34% 40%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100%  
6 36% 96%  
7 46% 59% Median
8 12% 14%  
9 1.1% 1.4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 6% 99.9%  
6 30% 94%  
7 30% 64% Last Result, Median
8 18% 34%  
9 16% 16%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100% Last Result
5 25% 97%  
6 58% 72% Median
7 13% 14%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100%  
5 36% 95%  
6 45% 59% Median
7 12% 15%  
8 2% 3% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 0.1% 75%  
2 0% 75%  
3 44% 75% Median
4 29% 30% Last Result
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 28%  
2 0% 28%  
3 24% 28%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 32 59% 30–34 29–34 29–35 28–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 29 4% 27–31 26–31 26–32 24–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 28 0.8% 26–29 26–30 25–31 24–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 27 0.9% 25–29 24–30 24–31 24–32
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0.1% 24–28 24–28 23–29 22–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 23 0% 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–24 20–24 19–25 18–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 20–24 20–24 19–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 20–23 19–24 19–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 19–22 18–23 18–24 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 19–22 19–23 18–24 18–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 19 0% 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 17 0% 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 12–16 12–16 11–16 10–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 11–14 11–14 10–15 9–16

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 2% 99.8% Last Result
29 6% 98%  
30 13% 92%  
31 20% 79%  
32 25% 59% Median, Majority
33 18% 34%  
34 11% 16%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.2% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.4%  
26 3% 98%  
27 13% 95%  
28 29% 82%  
29 19% 53% Median
30 21% 34%  
31 8% 13%  
32 3% 4% Majority
33 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.4% 99.9%  
25 3% 98%  
26 17% 95%  
27 19% 78%  
28 30% 59% Median
29 21% 29%  
30 6% 8%  
31 2% 3% Last Result
32 0.7% 0.8% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 6% 99.9%  
25 5% 94%  
26 17% 89%  
27 29% 72%  
28 20% 43% Median
29 14% 23%  
30 6% 8%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.8% 0.9% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.1%  
24 12% 97% Last Result
25 23% 85%  
26 27% 62% Median
27 19% 35%  
28 11% 16%  
29 3% 5%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 2% 99.6%  
22 7% 98%  
23 20% 91% Last Result
24 37% 71% Median
25 18% 34%  
26 11% 16%  
27 4% 5%  
28 1.0% 1.2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.3% 99.9%  
20 3% 98.6%  
21 10% 96%  
22 23% 86%  
23 24% 63% Median
24 21% 40%  
25 15% 19% Last Result
26 3% 4%  
27 1.0% 1.1%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 1.2% 99.7%  
19 3% 98.5%  
20 9% 95%  
21 35% 86%  
22 26% 51% Median
23 15% 25%  
24 7% 10%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 3% 99.8%  
20 11% 97%  
21 20% 86%  
22 32% 66% Median
23 22% 34% Last Result
24 9% 12%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.3% 0.5%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 6% 99.8%  
20 13% 93%  
21 27% 80%  
22 31% 53% Median
23 13% 21%  
24 5% 8%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.7% 0.8%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 7% 99.9%  
19 13% 93%  
20 28% 80%  
21 27% 52% Median
22 15% 24%  
23 7% 10%  
24 2% 3% Last Result
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 3% 99.7%  
19 13% 97%  
20 24% 84% Last Result
21 39% 60% Median
22 13% 21%  
23 6% 9%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.6% 0.6%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 6% 98%  
18 11% 92%  
19 34% 81%  
20 22% 47% Median
21 18% 25%  
22 5% 7%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 18% 98%  
16 24% 80%  
17 26% 56% Last Result, Median
18 23% 30%  
19 6% 7%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.9%  
14 6% 98%  
15 28% 93%  
16 32% 64% Median
17 23% 32%  
18 7% 9% Last Result
19 1.5% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 3% 99.4%  
12 10% 96%  
13 29% 86%  
14 28% 57% Median
15 19% 29%  
16 9% 10%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100%  
10 4% 99.2%  
11 12% 95%  
12 41% 83%  
13 25% 42% Median
14 13% 17%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations