Opinion Poll by MMR, 13 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.5% |
20.8–24.4% |
20.3–24.9% |
19.9–25.4% |
19.1–26.3% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.3% |
12.9–15.9% |
12.5–16.3% |
12.2–16.7% |
11.5–17.5% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.3% |
11.9–14.8% |
11.6–15.3% |
11.2–15.7% |
10.6–16.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.1% |
10.8–13.6% |
10.4–14.0% |
10.1–14.4% |
9.5–15.1% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.2% |
10.0–12.7% |
9.6–13.1% |
9.3–13.4% |
8.7–14.1% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
9.2% |
8.1–10.6% |
7.8–11.0% |
7.5–11.3% |
7.0–12.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
7.8% |
6.8–9.1% |
6.5–9.4% |
6.2–9.7% |
5.8–10.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.1% |
4.2–6.1% |
4.0–6.4% |
3.8–6.7% |
3.4–7.2% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
2.9% |
2.3–3.7% |
2.1–3.9% |
2.0–4.2% |
1.7–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
15% |
97% |
|
15 |
30% |
81% |
|
16 |
26% |
52% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
19% |
25% |
|
18 |
6% |
7% |
|
19 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.9% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
13% |
99.1% |
|
9 |
22% |
86% |
|
10 |
40% |
64% |
Median |
11 |
20% |
24% |
|
12 |
4% |
4% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
44% |
97% |
|
9 |
26% |
53% |
Median |
10 |
25% |
27% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
3% |
100% |
|
7 |
21% |
97% |
|
8 |
45% |
76% |
Median |
9 |
25% |
32% |
|
10 |
6% |
7% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
6 |
8% |
99.8% |
|
7 |
25% |
92% |
|
8 |
55% |
68% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
5% |
13% |
|
10 |
7% |
8% |
|
11 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
5 |
28% |
99.1% |
|
6 |
49% |
71% |
Median |
7 |
17% |
22% |
Last Result |
8 |
2% |
5% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
24% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
5 |
53% |
76% |
Median |
6 |
21% |
23% |
|
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
45% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
55% |
|
2 |
0% |
55% |
|
3 |
35% |
55% |
Median |
4 |
20% |
21% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
58% |
30–33 |
29–34 |
29–35 |
28–35 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
32 |
61% |
30–34 |
29–34 |
29–35 |
28–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
31 |
49% |
30–34 |
29–34 |
28–34 |
28–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
5% |
28–31 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
27 |
0.1% |
25–29 |
24–29 |
24–30 |
23–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
23–27 |
22–28 |
22–28 |
22–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
16–20 |
16–20 |
15–20 |
15–21 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
17 |
0% |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–16 |
12–16 |
12–17 |
11–17 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
30 |
15% |
92% |
|
31 |
19% |
77% |
|
32 |
29% |
58% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
19% |
29% |
Last Result |
34 |
7% |
10% |
|
35 |
3% |
3% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
29 |
9% |
98.8% |
|
30 |
16% |
90% |
|
31 |
12% |
74% |
|
32 |
35% |
61% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
12% |
26% |
|
34 |
9% |
14% |
|
35 |
4% |
5% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
29 |
7% |
97% |
|
30 |
17% |
91% |
|
31 |
24% |
74% |
|
32 |
18% |
49% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
19% |
31% |
|
34 |
10% |
12% |
|
35 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
1.1% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
7% |
98% |
|
28 |
23% |
91% |
|
29 |
18% |
68% |
|
30 |
21% |
50% |
Median |
31 |
23% |
29% |
Last Result |
32 |
4% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
7% |
98% |
Last Result |
25 |
11% |
91% |
|
26 |
24% |
80% |
|
27 |
28% |
56% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
28% |
|
29 |
8% |
11% |
|
30 |
2% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
6% |
98.9% |
|
24 |
16% |
93% |
|
25 |
18% |
77% |
|
26 |
28% |
58% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
19% |
30% |
|
28 |
8% |
11% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
22 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
11% |
95% |
Last Result |
24 |
10% |
84% |
|
25 |
23% |
73% |
|
26 |
22% |
51% |
Median |
27 |
21% |
29% |
|
28 |
7% |
8% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
13% |
95% |
|
23 |
21% |
82% |
|
24 |
27% |
61% |
Median |
25 |
21% |
34% |
Last Result |
26 |
10% |
13% |
|
27 |
2% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
5% |
98.8% |
|
22 |
14% |
93% |
|
23 |
23% |
80% |
|
24 |
26% |
56% |
Median |
25 |
18% |
31% |
|
26 |
9% |
12% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
8% |
98.7% |
|
22 |
23% |
91% |
|
23 |
16% |
68% |
|
24 |
24% |
52% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
21% |
28% |
|
26 |
5% |
7% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
20 |
11% |
97% |
|
21 |
25% |
86% |
|
22 |
27% |
61% |
Median |
23 |
22% |
33% |
|
24 |
9% |
12% |
|
25 |
2% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
19 |
6% |
99.3% |
|
20 |
15% |
94% |
|
21 |
27% |
79% |
|
22 |
21% |
51% |
Median |
23 |
23% |
30% |
Last Result |
24 |
5% |
7% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.5% |
|
19 |
16% |
95% |
|
20 |
27% |
79% |
Last Result |
21 |
23% |
52% |
Median |
22 |
21% |
29% |
|
23 |
6% |
8% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
13% |
96% |
|
17 |
21% |
83% |
|
18 |
27% |
62% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
25% |
35% |
|
20 |
9% |
10% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
8% |
97% |
|
16 |
32% |
89% |
|
17 |
25% |
57% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
18% |
32% |
|
19 |
10% |
13% |
|
20 |
3% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
8% |
98% |
|
15 |
24% |
89% |
|
16 |
37% |
66% |
Median |
17 |
19% |
29% |
|
18 |
8% |
10% |
|
19 |
1.5% |
2% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
6% |
98.9% |
|
13 |
26% |
92% |
|
14 |
31% |
67% |
Median |
15 |
22% |
36% |
|
16 |
11% |
14% |
|
17 |
3% |
3% |
|
18 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.65%