Opinion Poll by MMR, 13 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.5% 20.8–24.4% 20.3–24.9% 19.9–25.4% 19.1–26.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.3% 12.9–15.9% 12.5–16.3% 12.2–16.7% 11.5–17.5%
Píratar 9.2% 13.3% 11.9–14.8% 11.6–15.3% 11.2–15.7% 10.6–16.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.1% 10.8–13.6% 10.4–14.0% 10.1–14.4% 9.5–15.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.2% 10.0–12.7% 9.6–13.1% 9.3–13.4% 8.7–14.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.2% 8.1–10.6% 7.8–11.0% 7.5–11.3% 7.0–12.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 7.8% 6.8–9.1% 6.5–9.4% 6.2–9.7% 5.8–10.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.1% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.4–7.2%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.2% 1.7–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–19
Samfylkingin 7 10 8–11 8–11 8–12 7–12
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–9
Viðreisn 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.9%  
14 15% 97%  
15 30% 81%  
16 26% 52% Last Result, Median
17 19% 25%  
18 6% 7%  
19 1.0% 1.0%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.9% 100% Last Result
8 13% 99.1%  
9 22% 86%  
10 40% 64% Median
11 20% 24%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 3% 99.8%  
8 44% 97%  
9 26% 53% Median
10 25% 27%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 21% 97%  
8 45% 76% Median
9 25% 32%  
10 6% 7%  
11 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 8% 99.8%  
7 25% 92%  
8 55% 68% Last Result, Median
9 5% 13%  
10 7% 8%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.9% 100%  
5 28% 99.1%  
6 49% 71% Median
7 17% 22% Last Result
8 2% 5%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 24% 99.6% Last Result
5 53% 76% Median
6 21% 23%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 35% 55% Median
4 20% 21% Last Result
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 32 58% 30–33 29–34 29–35 28–35
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 32 61% 30–34 29–34 29–35 28–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 49% 30–34 29–34 28–34 28–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 30 5% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 27 0.1% 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–28 22–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 23–27 22–28 22–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–24 20–24 19–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 20–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 16–20 16–20 15–20 15–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 17 0% 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 13–16 12–16 12–17 11–17

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.0% 99.8%  
29 6% 98.8%  
30 15% 92%  
31 19% 77%  
32 29% 58% Median, Majority
33 19% 29% Last Result
34 7% 10%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
29 9% 98.8%  
30 16% 90%  
31 12% 74%  
32 35% 61% Median, Majority
33 12% 26%  
34 9% 14%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 2% 99.7%  
29 7% 97%  
30 17% 91%  
31 24% 74%  
32 18% 49% Median, Majority
33 19% 31%  
34 10% 12%  
35 2% 2% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 1.1% 99.6%  
27 7% 98%  
28 23% 91%  
29 18% 68%  
30 21% 50% Median
31 23% 29% Last Result
32 4% 5% Majority
33 1.5% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 7% 98% Last Result
25 11% 91%  
26 24% 80%  
27 28% 56% Median
28 17% 28%  
29 8% 11%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.9% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.9% 99.8%  
23 6% 98.9%  
24 16% 93%  
25 18% 77%  
26 28% 58% Last Result, Median
27 19% 30%  
28 8% 11%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.6% 0.6%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 5% 99.7%  
23 11% 95% Last Result
24 10% 84%  
25 23% 73%  
26 22% 51% Median
27 21% 29%  
28 7% 8%  
29 0.8% 0.8%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.4%  
22 13% 95%  
23 21% 82%  
24 27% 61% Median
25 21% 34% Last Result
26 10% 13%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.9%  
21 5% 98.8%  
22 14% 93%  
23 23% 80%  
24 26% 56% Median
25 18% 31%  
26 9% 12%  
27 3% 3% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.8%  
21 8% 98.7%  
22 23% 91%  
23 16% 68%  
24 24% 52% Last Result, Median
25 21% 28%  
26 5% 7%  
27 1.2% 1.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.5%  
20 11% 97%  
21 25% 86%  
22 27% 61% Median
23 22% 33%  
24 9% 12%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.6% 100%  
19 6% 99.3%  
20 15% 94%  
21 27% 79%  
22 21% 51% Median
23 23% 30% Last Result
24 5% 7%  
25 1.2% 1.5%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 5% 99.5%  
19 16% 95%  
20 27% 79% Last Result
21 23% 52% Median
22 21% 29%  
23 6% 8%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 3% 99.6%  
16 13% 96%  
17 21% 83%  
18 27% 62% Last Result, Median
19 25% 35%  
20 9% 10%  
21 1.1% 1.3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 8% 97%  
16 32% 89%  
17 25% 57% Last Result, Median
18 18% 32%  
19 10% 13%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 8% 98%  
15 24% 89%  
16 37% 66% Median
17 19% 29%  
18 8% 10%  
19 1.5% 2% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.1% 100%  
12 6% 98.9%  
13 26% 92%  
14 31% 67% Median
15 22% 36%  
16 11% 14%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations