Opinion Poll by Gallup, 5–30 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.6% 22.6–24.6% 22.4–24.9% 22.1–25.2% 21.7–25.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.2% 15.4–17.1% 15.1–17.3% 14.9–17.6% 14.5–18.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.3% 12.5–14.1% 12.3–14.4% 12.1–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Píratar 9.2% 11.1% 10.4–11.9% 10.2–12.1% 10.0–12.3% 9.7–12.6%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.0% 10.3–11.8% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.9% 8.2–9.6% 8.1–9.8% 7.9–10.0% 7.6–10.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.6% 3.2–4.1% 3.1–4.2% 3.0–4.3% 2.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 16–17 16–17 16–17 15–18
Samfylkingin 7 11 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Píratar 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Viðreisn 4 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0–3
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 66% 98% Last Result, Median
17 31% 32%  
18 1.2% 1.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 4% 100%  
11 78% 96% Median
12 18% 19%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 11% 100%  
9 33% 89%  
10 55% 55% Median
11 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100% Last Result
7 44% 99.6%  
8 55% 56% Median
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0.7% 100%  
7 63% 99.3% Median
8 36% 36%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 13% 100%  
6 84% 87% Median
7 3% 3% Last Result
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.3% 100%  
5 72% 98.7% Median
6 26% 26%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Median
1 0% 1.1%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 36 100% 35–36 34–37 34–37 33–37
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 75% 31–32 30–33 30–33 30–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 16% 30–32 30–32 30–32 29–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 28 0% 27–29 27–30 27–30 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 27 0% 27–28 26–29 26–29 26–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 27–28 27–29 26–29 26–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 27 0% 25–27 25–28 25–28 25–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–26 25–27 25–27 24–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 25–27 24–27 24–27 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 21–22 21–23 21–23 20–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 22–23 21–23 21–23 21–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 19–21 19–21 19–22 19–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 21 0% 19–22 19–22 19–22 19–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–16 14–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 14–15 13–15 13–15 13–16

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0.7% 100%  
34 7% 99.3%  
35 38% 92%  
36 48% 54% Median
37 6% 6%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 10% 99.9%  
31 15% 90%  
32 67% 75% Median, Majority
33 8% 8% Last Result
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.8% 100%  
30 15% 99.2%  
31 68% 84% Median
32 16% 16% Majority
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 2% 100%  
27 19% 98%  
28 47% 79%  
29 28% 33% Median
30 5% 5%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 6% 100%  
27 48% 94% Median
28 38% 45%  
29 7% 7%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 4% 99.9%  
27 52% 96% Median
28 39% 44%  
29 5% 6%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 14% 99.8% Last Result
26 29% 86%  
27 52% 57% Median
28 6% 6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 30% 98%  
26 58% 68% Median
27 9% 9% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 8% 99.9%  
25 13% 92%  
26 65% 79% Last Result, Median
27 13% 14%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 1.1% 100%  
23 43% 98.9% Median
24 43% 56%  
25 12% 12%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.2% 100%  
21 50% 98.8% Median
22 40% 49%  
23 8% 9%  
24 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 9% 99.8%  
22 62% 91% Median
23 27% 29% Last Result
24 1.2% 1.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 10% 99.9%  
20 23% 89%  
21 64% 67% Median
22 3% 3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100% Last Result
19 11% 99.9%  
20 30% 89%  
21 49% 60% Median
22 10% 10%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 25% 98%  
17 46% 74% Last Result
18 28% 28% Median
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 15% 99.8%  
15 36% 85%  
16 47% 48% Median
17 1.0% 1.0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 10% 99.9%  
14 14% 90%  
15 74% 77% Median
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations