Opinion Poll by MMR, 30 April–3 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 20.2% 18.6–21.9% 18.1–22.5% 17.8–22.9% 17.0–23.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.1% 12.8–15.7% 12.4–16.1% 12.1–16.5% 11.4–17.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.7–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.7–16.5%
Píratar 9.2% 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.7–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.7–16.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.8% 8.6–11.1% 8.3–11.5% 8.0–11.8% 7.5–12.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.2% 8.1–10.6% 7.8–10.9% 7.6–11.3% 7.1–11.9%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.2% 8.1–10.6% 7.8–10.9% 7.6–11.3% 7.1–11.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.7% 3.5–7.2%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–16 12–16 12–17 11–17
Samfylkingin 7 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 9% 99.2%  
13 30% 90%  
14 24% 60% Median
15 26% 37%  
16 7% 11% Last Result
17 3% 3%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.4% 100% Last Result
8 10% 98.6%  
9 35% 88%  
10 38% 54% Median
11 13% 15%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 5% 99.8%  
8 24% 95%  
9 24% 71% Median
10 44% 47%  
11 3% 3% Last Result
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 4% 99.8%  
8 27% 95%  
9 44% 68% Median
10 21% 24%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 8% 99.7%  
6 40% 91%  
7 35% 52% Median
8 13% 17% Last Result
9 2% 4%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.4% 100%  
5 25% 98.6%  
6 42% 74% Median
7 26% 32% Last Result
8 4% 6%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.2% 100% Last Result
5 17% 98.8%  
6 50% 82% Median
7 28% 32%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 0.9% 56%  
2 0% 55%  
3 34% 55% Median
4 21% 21% Last Result
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 17%  
2 0.2% 16%  
3 14% 16%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 34 89% 31–36 31–37 30–37 30–38
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 32 51% 30–34 29–34 28–35 28–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 13% 28–32 28–32 27–33 26–33
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 28 0.4% 25–30 25–30 25–31 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 23–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 25 0% 23–27 22–27 22–28 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 21–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–24 20–24 19–25 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 19–23 18–23 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 18–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 18–22 18–23 17–23 17–23
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 18 0% 16–20 16–20 16–21 15–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 17–20 17–21 16–21 16–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 16 0% 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–18

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.5%  
31 8% 97%  
32 12% 89% Majority
33 18% 77%  
34 22% 59% Median
35 19% 36%  
36 11% 17%  
37 5% 6%  
38 0.8% 0.9%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.8%  
29 5% 97%  
30 18% 92%  
31 23% 74%  
32 27% 51% Median, Majority
33 12% 24% Last Result
34 9% 12%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.3% 99.7%  
27 3% 98%  
28 14% 96%  
29 25% 82%  
30 24% 57% Median
31 19% 33%  
32 10% 13% Majority
33 3% 4%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 2% 99.7% Last Result
25 8% 98%  
26 13% 90%  
27 23% 77%  
28 24% 54% Median
29 17% 30%  
30 11% 14%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.3% 0.4% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 5% 98%  
25 19% 93%  
26 20% 74%  
27 19% 55% Median
28 18% 36%  
29 13% 18%  
30 4% 5%  
31 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 9% 98%  
24 16% 90%  
25 26% 73%  
26 25% 47% Last Result, Median
27 15% 23%  
28 6% 8%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.3% 99.8%  
22 6% 98%  
23 12% 93%  
24 20% 81%  
25 25% 62% Last Result, Median
26 25% 37%  
27 6% 11%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.7%  
21 7% 98%  
22 15% 91%  
23 25% 76% Last Result
24 23% 51% Median
25 17% 28%  
26 7% 10%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.6%  
21 10% 98%  
22 21% 89%  
23 30% 68% Median
24 18% 38%  
25 15% 20%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 4% 99.6%  
20 9% 95%  
21 25% 87%  
22 29% 62% Median
23 19% 33%  
24 9% 14%  
25 4% 4%  
26 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.9%  
18 6% 99.0%  
19 14% 93%  
20 26% 79%  
21 25% 53% Median
22 15% 28%  
23 10% 13%  
24 2% 2% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 15% 98%  
19 20% 83%  
20 21% 62% Median
21 21% 41%  
22 13% 20%  
23 5% 7% Last Result
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 4% 99.8%  
18 13% 96%  
19 19% 83%  
20 18% 64% Last Result, Median
21 24% 45%  
22 14% 22%  
23 7% 7%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 10% 98%  
17 24% 88% Last Result
18 27% 64% Median
19 22% 37%  
20 13% 16%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 4% 99.5%  
17 18% 95%  
18 16% 78% Last Result
19 30% 61% Median
20 24% 32%  
21 7% 8%  
22 0.7% 0.7%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 12% 96%  
15 23% 85%  
16 34% 62% Median
17 19% 28%  
18 7% 9%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.9%  
13 7% 98.6%  
14 17% 92%  
15 30% 75% Median
16 29% 45%  
17 12% 15%  
18 3% 4% Last Result
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations