Opinion Poll by MMR, 14–16 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.3% 19.7–23.0% 19.2–23.5% 18.8–23.9% 18.1–24.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.9% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–17.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.2% 10.9–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.7–15.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 11.8% 10.5–13.2% 10.2–13.6% 9.9–13.9% 9.3–14.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.6% 10.3–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.7–13.7% 9.1–14.4%
Píratar 9.2% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.4% 7.3–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.3–10.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.4% 5.5–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 9 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Píratar 6 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Viðreisn 4 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 0–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 24% 95%  
14 50% 72% Median
15 15% 22%  
16 5% 7% Last Result
17 0.9% 1.1%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100% Last Result
8 16% 98%  
9 49% 83% Median
10 29% 34%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 26% 97%  
8 50% 72% Median
9 17% 22%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 18% 97% Last Result
8 16% 78%  
9 48% 62% Median
10 14% 14%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 8% 99.9%  
7 21% 92%  
8 55% 71% Last Result, Median
9 11% 16%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.8% 0.8%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 12% 99.8%  
6 51% 88% Last Result, Median
7 32% 37%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 10% 100% Last Result
5 60% 90% Median
6 29% 30%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 13% 98%  
4 66% 85% Last Result, Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 34 94% 32–35 31–36 31–36 30–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 31 15% 28–32 28–32 28–33 27–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 9% 28–31 28–32 27–33 26–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 28 2% 27–30 27–31 26–31 26–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 23–27 23–27 23–27 22–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 23 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 22–25 21–25 21–26 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 20–23 20–24 20–25 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 21–23 20–24 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 19 0% 18–21 18–21 17–21 17–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 17 0% 15–18 14–18 14–19 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 14 0% 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–17

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 5% 99.2%  
32 12% 94% Majority
33 31% 82% Last Result
34 34% 51% Median
35 11% 18%  
36 5% 6%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.7%  
28 8% 98%  
29 16% 90%  
30 21% 73%  
31 37% 52% Last Result, Median
32 11% 15% Majority
33 3% 4%  
34 0.7% 0.9%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.5% 100%  
27 3% 99.5%  
28 11% 97%  
29 24% 86%  
30 40% 62% Median
31 14% 22%  
32 6% 9% Majority
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 3% 99.5%  
27 11% 96%  
28 40% 86% Last Result, Median
29 18% 46%  
30 18% 28%  
31 8% 9%  
32 1.4% 2% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.9%  
23 5% 99.0%  
24 10% 94%  
25 26% 85% Last Result
26 39% 59% Median
27 11% 19%  
28 8% 9%  
29 0.6% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.2% 99.8%  
23 11% 98.7%  
24 19% 88%  
25 38% 69% Median
26 19% 30% Last Result
27 10% 12%  
28 1.2% 2%  
29 0.9% 0.9%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 6% 98%  
23 15% 93%  
24 33% 77%  
25 29% 44% Median
26 11% 15% Last Result
27 4% 4%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.3%  
22 17% 95%  
23 34% 78% Median
24 24% 44% Last Result
25 13% 20%  
26 6% 7%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 7% 99.7%  
22 18% 93%  
23 39% 75% Last Result, Median
24 25% 36%  
25 8% 11%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.3% 100%  
20 13% 98.7%  
21 22% 86%  
22 42% 65% Median
23 15% 22%  
24 5% 8% Last Result
25 2% 3%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.9%  
20 8% 99.0%  
21 13% 91%  
22 24% 78%  
23 33% 54% Last Result, Median
24 18% 21%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.5% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 8% 99.2%  
21 28% 91%  
22 36% 63% Median
23 18% 27%  
24 5% 8%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.8% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 3% 99.8%  
18 19% 97%  
19 45% 77% Median
20 22% 32% Last Result
21 8% 10%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 6% 99.4%  
16 19% 94%  
17 43% 75% Median
18 20% 33% Last Result
19 11% 13%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.9%  
14 4% 98.8%  
15 13% 95%  
16 32% 82%  
17 33% 50% Median
18 14% 17% Last Result
19 3% 3%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 9% 98%  
15 24% 88%  
16 41% 64% Median
17 15% 23%  
18 7% 8%  
19 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 3% 99.7%  
13 22% 97%  
14 37% 75% Median
15 25% 38%  
16 10% 13%  
17 2% 2% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations