Opinion Poll by MMR, 23–29 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.5% 19.8–23.3% 19.3–23.8% 18.9–24.2% 18.2–25.1%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 14.1% 12.7–15.6% 12.3–16.0% 12.0–16.4% 11.3–17.2%
Píratar 9.2% 13.9% 12.6–15.5% 12.2–15.9% 11.9–16.3% 11.2–17.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 12.4% 11.2–13.9% 10.8–14.4% 10.5–14.7% 9.9–15.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.8% 9.6–12.3% 9.3–12.7% 9.0–13.0% 8.4–13.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.7% 8.5–11.0% 8.2–11.4% 7.9–11.7% 7.4–12.4%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.3% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.2–10.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.2% 3.4–5.2% 3.2–5.4% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–16 13–17 13–18 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 8–12
Píratar 6 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Samfylkingin 7 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 7% 99.5%  
14 23% 92%  
15 39% 70% Median
16 23% 31% Last Result
17 5% 8%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 7% 99.5%  
9 31% 93%  
10 46% 62% Median
11 14% 16% Last Result
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.6% 100%  
8 10% 99.4%  
9 31% 89%  
10 45% 58% Median
11 12% 13%  
12 1.3% 1.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 10% 99.6% Last Result
8 45% 90% Median
9 31% 44%  
10 13% 13%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 10% 99.6%  
7 53% 90% Last Result, Median
8 14% 37%  
9 22% 23%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 8% 99.8%  
6 31% 92%  
7 44% 60% Median
8 15% 16% Last Result
9 0.5% 0.7%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 6% 100% Last Result
5 46% 94% Median
6 40% 47%  
7 7% 7%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Median
1 0% 14%  
2 0% 14%  
3 12% 14%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.1%  
2 0% 1.1%  
3 1.0% 1.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 28 33 90% 32–35 31–36 30–36 29–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 79% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 53% 30–33 29–34 29–34 28–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 4% 27–31 27–31 26–32 26–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 24 28 0.3% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 24–28 24–28 23–28 22–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 23–26 23–27 22–28 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 21–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 20–24 20–24 19–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 19 0% 18–21 17–21 17–21 16–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 15–18 15–18 14–18 13–19

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 4% 99.4%  
31 6% 96%  
32 15% 90% Majority
33 32% 76% Median
34 27% 44%  
35 10% 17%  
36 7% 7%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 2% 99.7%  
30 5% 98%  
31 15% 93%  
32 33% 79% Median, Majority
33 26% 45% Last Result
34 11% 19%  
35 7% 8%  
36 0.5% 0.5%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.3% 99.8%  
29 5% 98%  
30 23% 93%  
31 17% 70%  
32 28% 53% Median, Majority
33 19% 25%  
34 5% 6%  
35 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 3% 99.8%  
27 11% 97%  
28 12% 86%  
29 27% 74% Median
30 30% 47%  
31 13% 16% Last Result
32 3% 4% Majority
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.5% 99.9% Last Result
25 4% 98%  
26 9% 95%  
27 20% 86%  
28 39% 65% Median
29 17% 27%  
30 8% 9%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.4%  
24 13% 96%  
25 29% 83% Last Result, Median
26 25% 54%  
27 17% 29%  
28 10% 11%  
29 1.2% 1.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.2%  
23 10% 96%  
24 23% 86%  
25 31% 63% Median
26 23% 32% Last Result
27 6% 9%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 4% 99.4%  
23 10% 96%  
24 25% 86%  
25 36% 60% Median
26 18% 25%  
27 5% 7% Last Result
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 8% 97%  
23 21% 89%  
24 38% 68% Median
25 23% 31%  
26 7% 8% Last Result
27 1.2% 1.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.7% 100%  
21 4% 99.2%  
22 17% 95%  
23 30% 78% Last Result, Median
24 26% 48%  
25 14% 22%  
26 8% 8%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.9%  
20 4% 98.6%  
21 17% 94%  
22 26% 78% Median
23 28% 52% Last Result
24 18% 24%  
25 5% 6%  
26 1.0% 1.1%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 3% 99.6%  
20 14% 96%  
21 28% 82%  
22 28% 54% Median
23 14% 26%  
24 12% 13% Last Result
25 0.9% 1.0%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 5% 99.3%  
19 13% 95%  
20 29% 81% Last Result, Median
21 36% 52%  
22 11% 17%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.4% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.5% 99.9%  
17 4% 98% Last Result
18 17% 95%  
19 35% 78%  
20 26% 43% Median
21 15% 17%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.9%  
16 6% 98.9%  
17 18% 93%  
18 35% 74% Last Result, Median
19 28% 40%  
20 8% 12%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.9%  
15 5% 99.3%  
16 18% 94%  
17 35% 76% Median
18 28% 41% Last Result
19 10% 13%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.5%  
15 20% 96%  
16 26% 76%  
17 34% 51% Median
18 15% 17%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations