Opinion Poll by MMR, 23–29 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.5% |
19.8–23.3% |
19.3–23.8% |
18.9–24.2% |
18.2–25.1% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
14.1% |
12.7–15.6% |
12.3–16.0% |
12.0–16.4% |
11.3–17.2% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.9% |
12.6–15.5% |
12.2–15.9% |
11.9–16.3% |
11.2–17.1% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
12.4% |
11.2–13.9% |
10.8–14.4% |
10.5–14.7% |
9.9–15.5% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.8% |
9.6–12.3% |
9.3–12.7% |
9.0–13.0% |
8.4–13.7% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.7% |
8.5–11.0% |
8.2–11.4% |
7.9–11.7% |
7.4–12.4% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
8.3% |
7.2–9.5% |
6.9–9.9% |
6.7–10.2% |
6.2–10.9% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.2% |
3.4–5.2% |
3.2–5.4% |
3.1–5.7% |
2.8–6.2% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.4% |
2.8–4.3% |
2.6–4.6% |
2.4–4.8% |
2.2–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
13 |
7% |
99.5% |
|
14 |
23% |
92% |
|
15 |
39% |
70% |
Median |
16 |
23% |
31% |
Last Result |
17 |
5% |
8% |
|
18 |
2% |
3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
8 |
7% |
99.5% |
|
9 |
31% |
93% |
|
10 |
46% |
62% |
Median |
11 |
14% |
16% |
Last Result |
12 |
2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
8 |
10% |
99.4% |
|
9 |
31% |
89% |
|
10 |
45% |
58% |
Median |
11 |
12% |
13% |
|
12 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
7 |
10% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
8 |
45% |
90% |
Median |
9 |
31% |
44% |
|
10 |
13% |
13% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
10% |
99.6% |
|
7 |
53% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
14% |
37% |
|
9 |
22% |
23% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
31% |
92% |
|
7 |
44% |
60% |
Median |
8 |
15% |
16% |
Last Result |
9 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
6% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
46% |
94% |
Median |
6 |
40% |
47% |
|
7 |
7% |
7% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
86% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
14% |
|
2 |
0% |
14% |
|
3 |
12% |
14% |
|
4 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
3 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
90% |
32–35 |
31–36 |
30–36 |
29–37 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
79% |
31–34 |
30–35 |
30–35 |
29–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
32 |
53% |
30–33 |
29–34 |
29–34 |
28–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
4% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin |
24 |
28 |
0.3% |
26–29 |
25–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–20 |
16–21 |
15–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
17 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
31 |
6% |
96% |
|
32 |
15% |
90% |
Majority |
33 |
32% |
76% |
Median |
34 |
27% |
44% |
|
35 |
10% |
17% |
|
36 |
7% |
7% |
|
37 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
29 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
30 |
5% |
98% |
|
31 |
15% |
93% |
|
32 |
33% |
79% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
26% |
45% |
Last Result |
34 |
11% |
19% |
|
35 |
7% |
8% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
5% |
98% |
|
30 |
23% |
93% |
|
31 |
17% |
70% |
|
32 |
28% |
53% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
19% |
25% |
|
34 |
5% |
6% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
11% |
97% |
|
28 |
12% |
86% |
|
29 |
27% |
74% |
Median |
30 |
30% |
47% |
|
31 |
13% |
16% |
Last Result |
32 |
3% |
4% |
Majority |
33 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
4% |
98% |
|
26 |
9% |
95% |
|
27 |
20% |
86% |
|
28 |
39% |
65% |
Median |
29 |
17% |
27% |
|
30 |
8% |
9% |
|
31 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
24 |
13% |
96% |
|
25 |
29% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
26 |
25% |
54% |
|
27 |
17% |
29% |
|
28 |
10% |
11% |
|
29 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
23 |
10% |
96% |
|
24 |
23% |
86% |
|
25 |
31% |
63% |
Median |
26 |
23% |
32% |
Last Result |
27 |
6% |
9% |
|
28 |
3% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
23 |
10% |
96% |
|
24 |
25% |
86% |
|
25 |
36% |
60% |
Median |
26 |
18% |
25% |
|
27 |
5% |
7% |
Last Result |
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
22 |
8% |
97% |
|
23 |
21% |
89% |
|
24 |
38% |
68% |
Median |
25 |
23% |
31% |
|
26 |
7% |
8% |
Last Result |
27 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
21 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
22 |
17% |
95% |
|
23 |
30% |
78% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
26% |
48% |
|
25 |
14% |
22% |
|
26 |
8% |
8% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
4% |
98.6% |
|
21 |
17% |
94% |
|
22 |
26% |
78% |
Median |
23 |
28% |
52% |
Last Result |
24 |
18% |
24% |
|
25 |
5% |
6% |
|
26 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
20 |
14% |
96% |
|
21 |
28% |
82% |
|
22 |
28% |
54% |
Median |
23 |
14% |
26% |
|
24 |
12% |
13% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.3% |
|
19 |
13% |
95% |
|
20 |
29% |
81% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
36% |
52% |
|
22 |
11% |
17% |
|
23 |
3% |
5% |
|
24 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
4% |
98% |
Last Result |
18 |
17% |
95% |
|
19 |
35% |
78% |
|
20 |
26% |
43% |
Median |
21 |
15% |
17% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
6% |
98.9% |
|
17 |
18% |
93% |
|
18 |
35% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
28% |
40% |
|
20 |
8% |
12% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
5% |
99.3% |
|
16 |
18% |
94% |
|
17 |
35% |
76% |
Median |
18 |
28% |
41% |
Last Result |
19 |
10% |
13% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
15 |
20% |
96% |
|
16 |
26% |
76% |
|
17 |
34% |
51% |
Median |
18 |
15% |
17% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 23–29 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 932
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.98%