Opinion Poll by Gallup, 3–30 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.4% |
22.5–24.4% |
22.2–24.6% |
22.0–24.9% |
21.6–25.3% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.6% |
15.8–17.5% |
15.6–17.7% |
15.4–17.9% |
15.0–18.3% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.4% |
11.7–13.2% |
11.5–13.4% |
11.3–13.6% |
11.0–13.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.2% |
10.5–11.9% |
10.3–12.1% |
10.2–12.3% |
9.8–12.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.9% |
10.2–11.6% |
10.0–11.8% |
9.9–12.0% |
9.6–12.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.0% |
9.4–10.7% |
9.2–10.9% |
9.0–11.1% |
8.7–11.4% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.5% |
7.9–9.2% |
7.7–9.4% |
7.6–9.5% |
7.3–9.8% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.7% |
3.3–4.1% |
3.2–4.3% |
3.1–4.4% |
2.9–4.6% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.2% |
2.8–3.6% |
2.7–3.8% |
2.7–3.9% |
2.5–4.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
67% |
87% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
19% |
20% |
|
18 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
2% |
100% |
|
11 |
58% |
98% |
Median |
12 |
40% |
40% |
|
13 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
59% |
98% |
Median |
9 |
35% |
39% |
|
10 |
4% |
4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
48% |
99.7% |
|
8 |
51% |
52% |
Median |
9 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
100% |
|
7 |
61% |
98% |
Median |
8 |
36% |
36% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
26% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
64% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
11% |
11% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
6 |
36% |
38% |
|
7 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
35 |
100% |
34–35 |
33–36 |
33–36 |
33–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
72% |
31–33 |
31–33 |
31–33 |
30–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
30 |
2% |
29–31 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
28–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
0% |
28–29 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–29 |
25–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
28 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
26 |
0% |
26–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
24–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
23–24 |
22–24 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
22–24 |
21–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
21 |
0% |
21–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–21 |
20–22 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
18–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
14–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–16 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
12–15 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
25% |
92% |
Median |
35 |
61% |
67% |
|
36 |
7% |
7% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
31 |
26% |
98.5% |
Median |
32 |
40% |
72% |
Majority |
33 |
32% |
33% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
6% |
100% |
|
29 |
27% |
94% |
Median |
30 |
42% |
67% |
|
31 |
23% |
26% |
|
32 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
61% |
93% |
Median |
29 |
25% |
32% |
|
30 |
7% |
8% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
26 |
11% |
99.4% |
|
27 |
47% |
88% |
Median |
28 |
37% |
41% |
|
29 |
4% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
10% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
39% |
90% |
Median |
28 |
45% |
51% |
|
29 |
6% |
6% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
6% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
26 |
44% |
94% |
Median |
27 |
28% |
50% |
|
28 |
21% |
22% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
28% |
99.8% |
Median |
25 |
28% |
71% |
|
26 |
40% |
44% |
Last Result |
27 |
4% |
4% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
9% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
39% |
91% |
Median |
25 |
44% |
51% |
|
26 |
6% |
7% |
|
27 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
51% |
95% |
Median |
24 |
39% |
44% |
|
25 |
5% |
5% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
22 |
20% |
99.2% |
|
23 |
64% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
14% |
15% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
8% |
100% |
|
21 |
51% |
92% |
Median |
22 |
28% |
42% |
|
23 |
14% |
14% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
4% |
100% |
|
20 |
36% |
96% |
Median |
21 |
51% |
60% |
|
22 |
9% |
9% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
1.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
45% |
98.8% |
Median |
20 |
26% |
54% |
|
21 |
27% |
27% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
15 |
18% |
99.3% |
|
16 |
69% |
81% |
Median |
17 |
11% |
12% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
14 |
14% |
99.5% |
|
15 |
49% |
86% |
Median |
16 |
34% |
37% |
|
17 |
3% |
3% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
13 |
35% |
99.4% |
Median |
14 |
48% |
64% |
|
15 |
16% |
16% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–30 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 3277
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%