Opinion Poll by Gallup, 3–30 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.4% 22.5–24.4% 22.2–24.6% 22.0–24.9% 21.6–25.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.6% 15.8–17.5% 15.6–17.7% 15.4–17.9% 15.0–18.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.4% 11.7–13.2% 11.5–13.4% 11.3–13.6% 11.0–13.9%
Píratar 9.2% 11.2% 10.5–11.9% 10.3–12.1% 10.2–12.3% 9.8–12.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.9% 10.2–11.6% 10.0–11.8% 9.9–12.0% 9.6–12.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.0% 9.4–10.7% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.5% 7.9–9.2% 7.7–9.4% 7.6–9.5% 7.3–9.8%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.7% 3.3–4.1% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.4% 2.9–4.6%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.2% 2.8–3.6% 2.7–3.8% 2.7–3.9% 2.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–18
Samfylkingin 7 11 11–12 11–12 11–12 10–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 8–9 8–9 8–10 7–10
Píratar 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Viðreisn 4 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 13% 99.9%  
16 67% 87% Last Result, Median
17 19% 20%  
18 1.3% 1.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 58% 98% Median
12 40% 40%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 59% 98% Median
9 35% 39%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100% Last Result
7 48% 99.7%  
8 51% 52% Median
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 61% 98% Median
8 36% 36%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 26% 99.9%  
7 64% 74% Last Result, Median
8 11% 11%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 62% 100% Median
6 36% 38%  
7 1.4% 1.4%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 35 100% 34–35 33–36 33–36 33–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 72% 31–33 31–33 31–33 30–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 2% 29–31 28–31 28–31 28–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 28 0% 28–29 27–30 27–30 27–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 26–28 26–28 26–29 25–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0% 26–28 26–29 26–29 26–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 26–28 25–28 25–28 25–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 24–26 24–26 24–27 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 24–25 23–26 23–26 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 23–24 22–24 22–25 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 21–23 20–23 20–23 20–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–21 20–22 19–22 19–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–21 18–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–17 14–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–15

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 100% Majority
33 7% 99.8%  
34 25% 92% Median
35 61% 67%  
36 7% 7%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 1.5% 100%  
31 26% 98.5% Median
32 40% 72% Majority
33 32% 33% Last Result
34 0.8% 0.8%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 6% 100%  
29 27% 94% Median
30 42% 67%  
31 23% 26%  
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 7% 99.8%  
28 61% 93% Median
29 25% 32%  
30 7% 8%  
31 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.6% 100%  
26 11% 99.4%  
27 47% 88% Median
28 37% 41%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 10% 99.9%  
27 39% 90% Median
28 45% 51%  
29 6% 6%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 6% 99.8% Last Result
26 44% 94% Median
27 28% 50%  
28 21% 22%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 28% 99.8% Median
25 28% 71%  
26 40% 44% Last Result
27 4% 4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 9% 99.9%  
24 39% 91% Median
25 44% 51%  
26 6% 7%  
27 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.1% 100%  
22 5% 99.9%  
23 51% 95% Median
24 39% 44%  
25 5% 5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.8% 100%  
22 20% 99.2%  
23 64% 79% Last Result, Median
24 14% 15%  
25 0.8% 0.9%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 8% 100%  
21 51% 92% Median
22 28% 42%  
23 14% 14%  
24 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 4% 100%  
20 36% 96% Median
21 51% 60%  
22 9% 9%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.2% 100% Last Result
19 45% 98.8% Median
20 26% 54%  
21 27% 27%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.7% 100%  
15 18% 99.3%  
16 69% 81% Median
17 11% 12% Last Result
18 0.9% 0.9%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 14% 99.5%  
15 49% 86% Median
16 34% 37%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 35% 99.4% Median
14 48% 64%  
15 16% 16%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations