Opinion Poll by MMR, 7–14 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.2% |
20.5–23.9% |
20.1–24.4% |
19.7–24.9% |
18.9–25.7% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.4% |
13.0–15.9% |
12.7–16.3% |
12.3–16.7% |
11.7–17.5% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
14.4% |
13.0–15.9% |
12.7–16.3% |
12.3–16.7% |
11.7–17.5% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.3% |
10.1–12.7% |
9.8–13.1% |
9.5–13.5% |
9.0–14.2% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.6% |
9.5–12.0% |
9.1–12.4% |
8.9–12.7% |
8.3–13.4% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.5% |
8.4–10.8% |
8.1–11.2% |
7.8–11.5% |
7.3–12.2% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.7% |
6.7–8.9% |
6.4–9.2% |
6.2–9.5% |
5.7–10.1% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.5% |
3.7–5.4% |
3.5–5.7% |
3.3–5.9% |
3.0–6.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.3% |
3.5–5.2% |
3.3–5.5% |
3.2–5.7% |
2.8–6.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
10% |
97% |
|
15 |
43% |
87% |
Median |
16 |
31% |
44% |
Last Result |
17 |
7% |
13% |
|
18 |
5% |
5% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.7% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
7% |
99.3% |
|
9 |
27% |
93% |
|
10 |
43% |
66% |
Median |
11 |
20% |
23% |
|
12 |
3% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
8 |
8% |
99.7% |
|
9 |
36% |
92% |
|
10 |
38% |
56% |
Median |
11 |
15% |
18% |
|
12 |
2% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
6 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
7 |
40% |
94% |
|
8 |
32% |
53% |
Median |
9 |
19% |
21% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
6 |
15% |
99.0% |
|
7 |
39% |
84% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
22% |
46% |
|
9 |
23% |
24% |
|
10 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
13% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
49% |
87% |
Median |
7 |
28% |
37% |
|
8 |
10% |
10% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
19% |
99.5% |
|
5 |
53% |
81% |
Median |
6 |
26% |
28% |
|
7 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
69% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.5% |
31% |
|
2 |
0% |
30% |
|
3 |
27% |
30% |
|
4 |
3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
87% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.4% |
13% |
|
2 |
0% |
13% |
|
3 |
11% |
13% |
|
4 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
34 |
89% |
31–36 |
31–36 |
30–37 |
29–37 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
20% |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–33 |
26–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
28 |
0.9% |
26–30 |
26–30 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
0.9% |
26–30 |
26–30 |
25–31 |
25–32 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
27 |
0.1% |
25–29 |
25–30 |
24–30 |
23–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–28 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
18–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–22 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–20 |
15–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–20 |
15–20 |
14–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
12–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
13 |
0% |
11–14 |
11–15 |
11–15 |
10–16 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
31 |
6% |
95% |
|
32 |
20% |
89% |
Majority |
33 |
14% |
69% |
|
34 |
21% |
54% |
Median |
35 |
20% |
33% |
|
36 |
9% |
13% |
|
37 |
3% |
4% |
|
38 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
28 |
13% |
95% |
|
29 |
16% |
83% |
|
30 |
21% |
67% |
Median |
31 |
26% |
46% |
|
32 |
14% |
20% |
Majority |
33 |
5% |
6% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
26 |
9% |
98% |
|
27 |
18% |
89% |
|
28 |
30% |
71% |
Median |
29 |
19% |
41% |
|
30 |
17% |
22% |
|
31 |
4% |
5% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
26 |
8% |
97% |
|
27 |
18% |
89% |
Median |
28 |
36% |
71% |
|
29 |
22% |
35% |
|
30 |
9% |
13% |
|
31 |
3% |
4% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
4% |
99.1% |
Last Result |
25 |
7% |
95% |
|
26 |
25% |
88% |
|
27 |
16% |
63% |
|
28 |
24% |
47% |
Median |
29 |
18% |
23% |
|
30 |
5% |
6% |
|
31 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
7% |
98% |
Last Result |
24 |
15% |
91% |
|
25 |
30% |
76% |
Median |
26 |
31% |
46% |
|
27 |
11% |
14% |
|
28 |
3% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
30 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
23 |
15% |
96% |
|
24 |
17% |
81% |
|
25 |
19% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
26 |
30% |
45% |
|
27 |
8% |
15% |
|
28 |
6% |
6% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
10% |
98% |
|
22 |
22% |
88% |
Median |
23 |
35% |
66% |
Last Result |
24 |
18% |
30% |
|
25 |
9% |
12% |
|
26 |
2% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
|
21 |
6% |
98% |
|
22 |
24% |
93% |
|
23 |
35% |
69% |
Median |
24 |
15% |
34% |
|
25 |
16% |
19% |
|
26 |
2% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
20 |
4% |
97% |
|
21 |
17% |
94% |
|
22 |
26% |
77% |
|
23 |
19% |
51% |
Median |
24 |
25% |
33% |
|
25 |
4% |
8% |
|
26 |
3% |
4% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
14% |
98% |
Last Result |
21 |
25% |
83% |
Median |
22 |
33% |
59% |
|
23 |
14% |
26% |
|
24 |
9% |
12% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
18 |
6% |
98% |
|
19 |
18% |
91% |
|
20 |
24% |
73% |
Median |
21 |
32% |
49% |
|
22 |
13% |
17% |
|
23 |
4% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
15% |
95% |
|
20 |
26% |
80% |
Median |
21 |
36% |
54% |
|
22 |
12% |
18% |
|
23 |
5% |
6% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
6% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
17% |
94% |
|
17 |
32% |
77% |
Last Result |
18 |
24% |
45% |
Median |
19 |
17% |
20% |
|
20 |
2% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
4% |
98.6% |
|
16 |
20% |
95% |
|
17 |
25% |
75% |
|
18 |
23% |
50% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
21% |
27% |
|
20 |
6% |
7% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
5% |
98.6% |
|
14 |
26% |
93% |
|
15 |
20% |
67% |
Median |
16 |
33% |
48% |
|
17 |
13% |
15% |
|
18 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
10% |
98% |
|
12 |
30% |
89% |
|
13 |
32% |
58% |
Median |
14 |
19% |
27% |
|
15 |
7% |
7% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–14 June 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 988
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.97%