Opinion Poll by MMR, 7–14 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.2% 20.5–23.9% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.9% 18.9–25.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.4% 13.0–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.3–16.7% 11.7–17.5%
Píratar 9.2% 14.4% 13.0–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.3–16.7% 11.7–17.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.6% 9.5–12.0% 9.1–12.4% 8.9–12.7% 8.3–13.4%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.5% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.8–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–18
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 8–11 8–12 7–12
Píratar 6 10 9–11 8–11 8–12 8–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.9%  
14 10% 97%  
15 43% 87% Median
16 31% 44% Last Result
17 7% 13%  
18 5% 5%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100% Last Result
8 7% 99.3%  
9 27% 93%  
10 43% 66% Median
11 20% 23%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.2% 100%  
8 8% 99.7%  
9 36% 92%  
10 38% 56% Median
11 15% 18%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 6% 99.8%  
7 40% 94%  
8 32% 53% Median
9 19% 21%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 15% 99.0%  
7 39% 84% Last Result, Median
8 22% 46%  
9 23% 24%  
10 0.9% 0.9%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100% Last Result
5 13% 99.8%  
6 49% 87% Median
7 28% 37%  
8 10% 10%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 19% 99.5%  
5 53% 81% Median
6 26% 28%  
7 1.5% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 31%  
2 0% 30%  
3 27% 30%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 0.4% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 11% 13%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 34 89% 31–36 31–36 30–37 29–37
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 30 20% 28–32 28–33 27–33 26–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 28 0.9% 26–30 26–30 26–31 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 28 0.9% 26–30 26–30 25–31 25–32
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 27 0.1% 25–29 25–30 24–30 23–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 25 0% 23–27 23–28 22–28 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 22–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 21–24 20–25 19–26 18–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 20–24 20–24 20–24 19–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 20 0% 19–22 18–22 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 19–22 19–23 18–23 18–24
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–20 15–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 16–19 16–20 15–20 14–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–17 13–17 13–17 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 11–14 11–15 11–15 10–16

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100% Last Result
29 1.2% 99.8%  
30 3% 98.6%  
31 6% 95%  
32 20% 89% Majority
33 14% 69%  
34 21% 54% Median
35 20% 33%  
36 9% 13%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.5% 0.5%  
39 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.8%  
27 3% 98.9%  
28 13% 95%  
29 16% 83%  
30 21% 67% Median
31 26% 46%  
32 14% 20% Majority
33 5% 6% Last Result
34 0.6% 0.6%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 9% 98%  
27 18% 89%  
28 30% 71% Median
29 19% 41%  
30 17% 22%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.8% 0.9% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 8% 97%  
27 18% 89% Median
28 36% 71%  
29 22% 35%  
30 9% 13%  
31 3% 4% Last Result
32 0.8% 0.9% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.1% Last Result
25 7% 95%  
26 25% 88%  
27 16% 63%  
28 24% 47% Median
29 18% 23%  
30 5% 6%  
31 0.9% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 7% 98% Last Result
24 15% 91%  
25 30% 76% Median
26 31% 46%  
27 11% 14%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.7% 0.7%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.4%  
23 15% 96%  
24 17% 81%  
25 19% 64% Last Result, Median
26 30% 45%  
27 8% 15%  
28 6% 6%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.8%  
21 10% 98%  
22 22% 88% Median
23 35% 66% Last Result
24 18% 30%  
25 9% 12%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.9% 0.9%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 1.4% 99.7%  
21 6% 98%  
22 24% 93%  
23 35% 69% Median
24 15% 34%  
25 16% 19%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.6% 100%  
19 2% 99.4%  
20 4% 97%  
21 17% 94%  
22 26% 77%  
23 19% 51% Median
24 25% 33%  
25 4% 8%  
26 3% 4% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.7%  
20 14% 98% Last Result
21 25% 83% Median
22 33% 59%  
23 14% 26%  
24 9% 12%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.6%  
18 6% 98%  
19 18% 91%  
20 24% 73% Median
21 32% 49%  
22 13% 17%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 4% 99.6%  
19 15% 95%  
20 26% 80% Median
21 36% 54%  
22 12% 18%  
23 5% 6%  
24 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 6% 99.6%  
16 17% 94%  
17 32% 77% Last Result
18 24% 45% Median
19 17% 20%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.9% 1.0%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.4% 100%  
15 4% 98.6%  
16 20% 95%  
17 25% 75%  
18 23% 50% Last Result, Median
19 21% 27%  
20 6% 7%  
21 0.7% 0.7%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.3% 99.9%  
13 5% 98.6%  
14 26% 93%  
15 20% 67% Median
16 33% 48%  
17 13% 15%  
18 2% 2% Last Result
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 10% 98%  
12 30% 89%  
13 32% 58% Median
14 19% 27%  
15 7% 7%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations