Opinion Poll by Gallup, 31 May–30 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.7% |
22.7–24.7% |
22.5–25.0% |
22.2–25.2% |
21.8–25.7% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.7% |
13.9–15.5% |
13.7–15.8% |
13.5–16.0% |
13.1–16.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.0% |
12.3–13.8% |
12.0–14.0% |
11.9–14.2% |
11.5–14.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
11.4% |
10.7–12.2% |
10.5–12.4% |
10.3–12.6% |
10.0–12.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.3% |
10.6–12.1% |
10.4–12.3% |
10.2–12.5% |
9.9–12.8% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.1% |
9.4–10.8% |
9.2–11.0% |
9.1–11.2% |
8.8–11.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.6% |
8.0–9.3% |
7.8–9.4% |
7.7–9.6% |
7.4–10.0% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.2% |
3.8–4.7% |
3.7–4.8% |
3.6–5.0% |
3.4–5.2% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.6–3.4% |
2.5–3.6% |
2.5–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
35% |
96% |
Last Result |
17 |
53% |
61% |
Median |
18 |
8% |
8% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
9 |
26% |
99.7% |
|
10 |
65% |
74% |
Median |
11 |
9% |
9% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
8 |
23% |
99.6% |
|
9 |
71% |
76% |
Median |
10 |
5% |
5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
24% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
8 |
61% |
76% |
Median |
9 |
13% |
15% |
|
10 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
31% |
99.5% |
|
8 |
66% |
68% |
Median |
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
69% |
99.9% |
Median |
7 |
29% |
31% |
|
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
31% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
68% |
69% |
Median |
7 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
3% |
|
2 |
0% |
3% |
|
3 |
3% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
81% |
31–33 |
31–33 |
31–34 |
30–34 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
95% |
32–33 |
32–34 |
31–34 |
30–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
31 |
23% |
30–32 |
30–33 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
3% |
29–31 |
29–31 |
28–32 |
28–32 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
27 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
26 |
0% |
26–27 |
25–27 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
25–26 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
24–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
22–24 |
21–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
22–23 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
18–20 |
17–20 |
17–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
15–18 |
15–18 |
15–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
17 |
0% |
16–17 |
15–17 |
15–18 |
15–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–15 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
2% |
100% |
|
31 |
17% |
98% |
|
32 |
39% |
81% |
Majority |
33 |
40% |
43% |
Last Result, Median |
34 |
3% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
32 |
34% |
95% |
Majority |
33 |
52% |
62% |
Median |
34 |
8% |
9% |
|
35 |
2% |
2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
29 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
30 |
8% |
97% |
|
31 |
65% |
89% |
|
32 |
16% |
23% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
7% |
7% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
8% |
97% |
|
30 |
53% |
89% |
|
31 |
33% |
36% |
Last Result, Median |
32 |
3% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
17% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
26 |
18% |
83% |
|
27 |
58% |
65% |
Median |
28 |
7% |
7% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
17% |
99.4% |
|
26 |
23% |
82% |
|
27 |
54% |
60% |
Median |
28 |
6% |
6% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
5% |
97% |
|
26 |
50% |
92% |
|
27 |
37% |
41% |
Median |
28 |
4% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
2% |
100% |
|
24 |
5% |
98% |
|
25 |
48% |
93% |
|
26 |
37% |
45% |
Median |
27 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
2% |
100% |
|
23 |
5% |
98% |
|
24 |
59% |
93% |
|
25 |
26% |
34% |
Median |
26 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
23 |
6% |
98.9% |
Last Result |
24 |
34% |
93% |
|
25 |
53% |
59% |
Median |
26 |
5% |
5% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
2% |
100% |
|
22 |
25% |
98% |
|
23 |
50% |
73% |
Median |
24 |
22% |
24% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
12% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
44% |
88% |
|
23 |
34% |
45% |
Median |
24 |
10% |
10% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
|
21 |
7% |
98% |
|
22 |
54% |
92% |
|
23 |
31% |
38% |
Median |
24 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
40% |
96% |
Last Result |
19 |
44% |
56% |
Median |
20 |
11% |
12% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
9% |
100% |
|
16 |
22% |
91% |
|
17 |
57% |
69% |
Median |
18 |
12% |
12% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
39% |
94% |
|
17 |
51% |
55% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
3% |
3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
44% |
96% |
|
15 |
47% |
52% |
Median |
16 |
4% |
4% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 31 May–30 June 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 3132
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.79%