Opinion Poll by Gallup, 31 May–30 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.7% 22.7–24.7% 22.5–25.0% 22.2–25.2% 21.8–25.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.7% 13.9–15.5% 13.7–15.8% 13.5–16.0% 13.1–16.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.0% 12.3–13.8% 12.0–14.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.5–14.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 11.4% 10.7–12.2% 10.5–12.4% 10.3–12.6% 10.0–12.9%
Píratar 9.2% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.8%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.1% 9.4–10.8% 9.2–11.0% 9.1–11.2% 8.8–11.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.4% 7.7–9.6% 7.4–10.0%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.2% 3.8–4.7% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–5.0% 3.4–5.2%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–17 16–18 15–18 15–18
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–10 9–11 9–11 9–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Píratar 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0–3 0–3
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 4% 99.9%  
16 35% 96% Last Result
17 53% 61% Median
18 8% 8%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.3% 100%  
9 26% 99.7%  
10 65% 74% Median
11 9% 9%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 23% 99.6%  
9 71% 76% Median
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 24% 99.9% Last Result
8 61% 76% Median
9 13% 15%  
10 1.4% 1.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100% Last Result
7 31% 99.5%  
8 66% 68% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 69% 99.9% Median
7 29% 31%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 31% 99.9%  
6 68% 69% Median
7 1.3% 1.3%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 81% 31–33 31–33 31–34 30–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 33 95% 32–33 32–34 31–34 30–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 23% 30–32 30–33 29–33 28–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 3% 29–31 29–31 28–32 28–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 27 0% 25–27 25–28 25–28 25–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 25–27 25–28 25–28 24–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 26 0% 26–27 25–27 24–28 24–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 25–26 24–27 24–27 23–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 24–25 23–26 23–26 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 25 0% 24–25 23–26 23–26 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 21–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 21–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 22–23 21–24 21–24 20–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 18–20 18–20 17–20 17–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 17 0% 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–17 15–17 15–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 14–15 14–15 13–16 13–16

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 2% 100%  
31 17% 98%  
32 39% 81% Majority
33 40% 43% Last Result, Median
34 3% 3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.1% 99.9%  
31 3% 98.8%  
32 34% 95% Majority
33 52% 62% Median
34 8% 9%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.7% 100%  
29 3% 99.3%  
30 8% 97%  
31 65% 89%  
32 16% 23% Median, Majority
33 7% 7%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 2% 99.8%  
29 8% 97%  
30 53% 89%  
31 33% 36% Last Result, Median
32 3% 3% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 17% 99.8% Last Result
26 18% 83%  
27 58% 65% Median
28 7% 7%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100% Last Result
24 0.3% 99.7%  
25 17% 99.4%  
26 23% 82%  
27 54% 60% Median
28 6% 6%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 3% 99.9% Last Result
25 5% 97%  
26 50% 92%  
27 37% 41% Median
28 4% 4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 2% 100%  
24 5% 98%  
25 48% 93%  
26 37% 45% Median
27 8% 8% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 2% 100%  
23 5% 98%  
24 59% 93%  
25 26% 34% Median
26 8% 8% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 1.0% 100%  
23 6% 98.9% Last Result
24 34% 93%  
25 53% 59% Median
26 5% 5%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 2% 100%  
22 25% 98%  
23 50% 73% Median
24 22% 24%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 12% 99.7%  
22 44% 88%  
23 34% 45% Median
24 10% 10%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 7% 98%  
22 54% 92%  
23 31% 38% Median
24 7% 7% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 4% 99.9%  
18 40% 96% Last Result
19 44% 56% Median
20 11% 12%  
21 0.6% 0.6%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 9% 100%  
16 22% 91%  
17 57% 69% Median
18 12% 12% Last Result
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 6% 99.8%  
16 39% 94%  
17 51% 55% Last Result, Median
18 3% 3%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 4% 99.7%  
14 44% 96%  
15 47% 52% Median
16 4% 4%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations