Opinion Poll by MMR, 4–17 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
19.0% |
17.9–20.2% |
17.6–20.5% |
17.4–20.8% |
16.9–21.3% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
14.9% |
13.9–15.9% |
13.6–16.2% |
13.4–16.5% |
12.9–17.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
14.4% |
13.4–15.4% |
13.2–15.7% |
12.9–16.0% |
12.5–16.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.5% |
12.6–14.5% |
12.3–14.8% |
12.1–15.0% |
11.6–15.5% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.3% |
9.5–11.2% |
9.2–11.5% |
9.0–11.7% |
8.7–12.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.7% |
8.9–10.6% |
8.7–10.8% |
8.5–11.1% |
8.1–11.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.4% |
7.6–9.2% |
7.4–9.4% |
7.2–9.7% |
6.9–10.1% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.8% |
4.2–5.4% |
4.1–5.6% |
3.9–5.8% |
3.7–6.1% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.3% |
3.7–4.9% |
3.6–5.1% |
3.5–5.3% |
3.2–5.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
12 |
12% |
99.3% |
|
13 |
45% |
87% |
Median |
14 |
37% |
42% |
|
15 |
5% |
5% |
|
16 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
9 |
13% |
99.1% |
|
10 |
55% |
86% |
Median |
11 |
28% |
31% |
|
12 |
2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
9% |
100% |
|
10 |
76% |
91% |
Median |
11 |
8% |
15% |
|
12 |
6% |
7% |
|
13 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.6% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
13% |
99.4% |
|
9 |
52% |
86% |
Median |
10 |
33% |
34% |
|
11 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
21% |
99.7% |
|
7 |
64% |
79% |
Median |
8 |
15% |
15% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
59% |
97% |
Median |
7 |
35% |
38% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
3% |
100% |
|
5 |
40% |
97% |
|
6 |
52% |
57% |
Median |
7 |
5% |
5% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
67% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
3% |
33% |
|
2 |
0% |
31% |
|
3 |
28% |
31% |
|
4 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
8% |
|
2 |
0% |
8% |
|
3 |
8% |
8% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
79% |
31–34 |
31–35 |
30–35 |
29–35 |
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
64% |
31–33 |
30–33 |
30–34 |
28–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
1.0% |
28–30 |
27–31 |
27–31 |
27–32 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–29 |
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
21–26 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–25 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
19–24 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–22 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–21 |
18–22 |
17–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–21 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
16–19 |
15–21 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–19 |
15–19 |
14–19 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
13 |
0% |
11–13 |
11–14 |
11–14 |
10–14 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
31 |
16% |
95% |
|
32 |
17% |
79% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
36% |
62% |
|
34 |
18% |
27% |
|
35 |
8% |
8% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
99.3% |
|
30 |
6% |
98% |
|
31 |
27% |
92% |
|
32 |
34% |
64% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
26% |
30% |
Last Result |
34 |
3% |
4% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
27 |
6% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
24% |
93% |
|
29 |
30% |
69% |
Median |
30 |
34% |
39% |
|
31 |
4% |
5% |
Last Result |
32 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
6% |
98.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
19% |
93% |
|
26 |
30% |
74% |
Median |
27 |
27% |
44% |
|
28 |
13% |
17% |
|
29 |
5% |
5% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
18% |
97% |
Last Result |
26 |
42% |
79% |
Median |
27 |
24% |
37% |
|
28 |
11% |
13% |
|
29 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
23 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
10% |
95% |
|
25 |
20% |
85% |
|
26 |
28% |
65% |
Median |
27 |
35% |
38% |
|
28 |
2% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
22 |
14% |
99.4% |
|
23 |
36% |
86% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
38% |
50% |
|
25 |
10% |
12% |
|
26 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
7% |
98.8% |
|
22 |
31% |
92% |
|
23 |
47% |
61% |
Median |
24 |
11% |
13% |
|
25 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
15% |
98% |
|
22 |
27% |
83% |
Median |
23 |
40% |
56% |
Last Result |
24 |
14% |
16% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
20 |
9% |
97% |
|
21 |
26% |
87% |
|
22 |
36% |
61% |
Median |
23 |
22% |
25% |
|
24 |
3% |
4% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
19% |
95% |
|
20 |
26% |
76% |
Median |
21 |
43% |
49% |
|
22 |
6% |
7% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
18 |
9% |
99.2% |
|
19 |
34% |
90% |
Median |
20 |
34% |
56% |
Last Result |
21 |
18% |
22% |
|
22 |
4% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
17 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
18 |
26% |
91% |
|
19 |
27% |
64% |
Median |
20 |
35% |
37% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
16 |
21% |
98.6% |
|
17 |
52% |
78% |
Median |
18 |
21% |
26% |
Last Result |
19 |
3% |
4% |
|
20 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
15 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
16 |
24% |
96% |
|
17 |
38% |
72% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
25% |
34% |
|
19 |
9% |
9% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
14 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
15 |
20% |
96% |
|
16 |
43% |
76% |
Median |
17 |
24% |
33% |
|
18 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
11 |
11% |
98.8% |
|
12 |
31% |
88% |
|
13 |
50% |
57% |
Median |
14 |
7% |
7% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–17 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2031
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.10%