Opinion Poll by MMR, 4–17 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.4–20.8% 16.9–21.3%
Píratar 9.2% 14.9% 13.9–15.9% 13.6–16.2% 13.4–16.5% 12.9–17.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 14.4% 13.4–15.4% 13.2–15.7% 12.9–16.0% 12.5–16.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.5% 12.6–14.5% 12.3–14.8% 12.1–15.0% 11.6–15.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.3% 9.5–11.2% 9.2–11.5% 9.0–11.7% 8.7–12.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.7% 8.9–10.6% 8.7–10.8% 8.5–11.1% 8.1–11.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.4% 7.6–9.2% 7.4–9.4% 7.2–9.7% 6.9–10.1%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.8% 4.2–5.4% 4.1–5.6% 3.9–5.8% 3.7–6.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.3% 3.7–4.9% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 13 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–15
Píratar 6 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 10–11 9–12 9–12 9–13
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 6–7 5–8 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–6 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 12% 99.3%  
13 45% 87% Median
14 37% 42%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0% 0.1% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0.9% 100%  
9 13% 99.1%  
10 55% 86% Median
11 28% 31%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 9% 100%  
10 76% 91% Median
11 8% 15%  
12 6% 7%  
13 1.3% 1.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.6% 100% Last Result
8 13% 99.4%  
9 52% 86% Median
10 33% 34%  
11 1.3% 1.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 21% 99.7%  
7 64% 79% Median
8 15% 15%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 3% 100%  
6 59% 97% Median
7 35% 38%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 40% 97%  
6 52% 57% Median
7 5% 5%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Median
1 3% 33%  
2 0% 31%  
3 28% 31%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 8% 8%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 33 79% 31–34 31–35 30–35 29–35
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 64% 31–33 30–33 30–34 28–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 1.0% 28–30 27–31 27–31 27–32
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–29
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 26 0% 25–28 25–28 24–28 24–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 26 0% 24–27 24–27 23–28 23–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 22–25 22–25 22–25 21–26
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–24 21–24 21–24 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 20–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 20–23 19–24 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 20 0% 19–21 19–22 18–22 18–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 18–21 18–21 18–22 17–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 19 0% 18–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–19 15–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 17 0% 16–18 16–19 15–19 14–19
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–17 15–18 14–18 14–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–14

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 0.9% 99.8%  
30 4% 98.9%  
31 16% 95%  
32 17% 79% Median, Majority
33 36% 62%  
34 18% 27%  
35 8% 8%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.7% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.3%  
30 6% 98%  
31 27% 92%  
32 34% 64% Median, Majority
33 26% 30% Last Result
34 3% 4%  
35 1.1% 1.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.4% 100%  
27 6% 99.6%  
28 24% 93%  
29 30% 69% Median
30 34% 39%  
31 4% 5% Last Result
32 1.0% 1.0% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.9%  
24 6% 98.9% Last Result
25 19% 93%  
26 30% 74% Median
27 27% 44%  
28 13% 17%  
29 5% 5%  
30 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 3% 99.7%  
25 18% 97% Last Result
26 42% 79% Median
27 24% 37%  
28 11% 13%  
29 1.1% 2%  
30 0.8% 0.8%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 4% 99.6%  
24 10% 95%  
25 20% 85%  
26 28% 65% Median
27 35% 38%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.6% 100%  
22 14% 99.4%  
23 36% 86% Last Result, Median
24 38% 50%  
25 10% 12%  
26 1.4% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.8%  
21 7% 98.8%  
22 31% 92%  
23 47% 61% Median
24 11% 13%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 15% 98%  
22 27% 83% Median
23 40% 56% Last Result
24 14% 16%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.2%  
20 9% 97%  
21 26% 87%  
22 36% 61% Median
23 22% 25%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 5% 99.6%  
19 19% 95%  
20 26% 76% Median
21 43% 49%  
22 6% 7%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.8% 100%  
18 9% 99.2%  
19 34% 90% Median
20 34% 56% Last Result
21 18% 22%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 1.0% 100%  
17 8% 99.0%  
18 26% 91%  
19 27% 64% Median
20 35% 37%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.4% 100%  
16 21% 98.6%  
17 52% 78% Median
18 21% 26% Last Result
19 3% 4%  
20 0.8% 1.3%  
21 0.6% 0.6%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 3% 99.4%  
16 24% 96%  
17 38% 72% Last Result, Median
18 25% 34%  
19 9% 9%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 4% 99.6%  
15 20% 96%  
16 43% 76% Median
17 24% 33%  
18 9% 9% Last Result
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.2% 100%  
11 11% 98.8%  
12 31% 88%  
13 50% 57% Median
14 7% 7%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations