Opinion Poll by Zenter, 24–26 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 20.4% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.8% 17.9–23.2% 17.2–24.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.3% 12.9–15.9% 12.5–16.4% 12.2–16.8% 11.6–17.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 13.3% 12.0–14.9% 11.6–15.3% 11.3–15.7% 10.7–16.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.2–14.9% 10.9–15.2% 10.2–16.0%
Píratar 9.2% 12.3% 11.0–13.8% 10.7–14.3% 10.3–14.6% 9.8–15.4%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.6% 9.3–12.0% 9.0–12.4% 8.7–12.7% 8.2–13.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.2% 7.1–9.5% 6.9–9.9% 6.6–10.2% 6.1–10.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 12–16 12–16 12–17
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 8–12
Miðflokkurinn 7 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Píratar 6 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–10
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 6% 99.7%  
13 21% 94%  
14 35% 73% Median
15 31% 38%  
16 5% 6% Last Result
17 0.7% 0.8%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100% Last Result
8 8% 99.7%  
9 32% 92%  
10 41% 60% Median
11 17% 20%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100% Last Result
8 9% 98%  
9 44% 89% Median
10 39% 45%  
11 4% 6%  
12 1.3% 1.5%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 7% 99.8%  
8 33% 92%  
9 38% 59% Median
10 19% 21%  
11 2% 2% Last Result
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100% Last Result
7 17% 99.4%  
8 37% 82% Median
9 34% 45%  
10 11% 11%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 1.1% 100%  
6 18% 98.9%  
7 48% 81% Median
8 28% 33%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 12% 100%  
5 40% 88% Median
6 41% 48%  
7 6% 7%  
8 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 34 97% 32–36 32–36 31–37 31–37
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 33 92% 32–35 31–35 31–36 30–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 2% 27–31 27–31 26–31 26–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 28 0.4% 27–30 26–30 26–31 25–31
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 28 0.1% 26–29 26–30 26–30 25–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 25–28 25–29 24–30 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 22–25 22–26 22–26 21–27
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 22–25 21–25 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 21–24 21–25 21–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 18–21 18–21 17–22 17–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–22
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–20 17–20 16–20 16–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–16 12–16 12–16 12–17

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 2% 99.7%  
32 8% 97% Majority
33 21% 89%  
34 34% 68% Median
35 22% 34%  
36 9% 12%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 7% 99.4%  
32 19% 92% Majority
33 30% 73% Last Result, Median
34 24% 43%  
35 15% 20%  
36 4% 4%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 3% 99.8%  
27 9% 97%  
28 22% 88% Median
29 34% 65%  
30 21% 31%  
31 8% 11% Last Result
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.9%  
26 5% 98.7%  
27 22% 93%  
28 28% 71% Median
29 25% 43%  
30 14% 18%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0.4% 0.4% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.9% Last Result
26 11% 98.7%  
27 26% 88%  
28 34% 62% Median
29 18% 28%  
30 7% 10%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.8% 100%  
24 2% 99.2% Last Result
25 13% 97%  
26 21% 84%  
27 34% 63% Median
28 21% 30%  
29 6% 9%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 10% 98%  
23 29% 88% Last Result
24 28% 59% Median
25 24% 31%  
26 6% 7%  
27 1.0% 1.2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 4% 99.7%  
22 18% 96%  
23 23% 77% Median
24 29% 54%  
25 19% 25%  
26 5% 6% Last Result
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 3% 99.9%  
22 11% 97%  
23 23% 86%  
24 29% 63% Median
25 23% 34%  
26 10% 11% Last Result
27 1.3% 1.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 6% 99.6%  
22 12% 94%  
23 31% 82% Last Result, Median
24 31% 51%  
25 15% 20%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 14% 98%  
22 21% 84%  
23 30% 62% Median
24 24% 32%  
25 6% 8%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.9% 100%  
19 4% 99.1%  
20 21% 95% Last Result
21 30% 74% Median
22 30% 44%  
23 11% 14%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 3% 99.8%  
18 16% 97%  
19 27% 81% Median
20 36% 54%  
21 15% 18%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 4% 99.7%  
17 14% 95%  
18 32% 81% Last Result
19 30% 49% Median
20 15% 19%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 5% 99.6%  
17 26% 95%  
18 31% 69% Last Result, Median
19 28% 38%  
20 9% 10%  
21 1.3% 1.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.8% 100%  
15 5% 99.1%  
16 26% 94%  
17 29% 68% Last Result, Median
18 27% 38%  
19 10% 12%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 8% 99.8%  
13 21% 92%  
14 29% 71% Median
15 29% 42%  
16 11% 12%  
17 0.7% 0.8%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations