Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–31 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.7% 20.5–22.9% 20.1–23.3% 19.9–23.6% 19.3–24.2%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.7% 12.8–14.8% 12.5–15.1% 12.3–15.4% 11.8–15.9%
Píratar 9.2% 12.7% 11.8–13.8% 11.5–14.1% 11.3–14.3% 10.9–14.8%
Viðreisn 6.7% 12.2% 11.3–13.2% 11.0–13.5% 10.8–13.8% 10.4–14.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 12.2% 11.2–13.2% 11.0–13.5% 10.8–13.7% 10.3–14.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.0% 11.1–13.1% 10.9–13.4% 10.7–13.6% 10.2–14.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.5% 7.8–9.4% 7.5–9.7% 7.4–9.9% 7.0–10.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.7% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.5% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.2% 2.7–3.8% 2.6–3.9% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 13–16 13–16 13–16 13–16
Samfylkingin 7 9 9–10 8–10 8–10 8–11
Píratar 6 9 8–9 8–9 7–10 7–10
Viðreisn 4 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 9 8–9 7–10 7–10 7–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 16% 100%  
14 32% 84%  
15 40% 53% Median
16 12% 13% Last Result
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100% Last Result
8 6% 99.7%  
9 59% 94% Median
10 35% 36%  
11 0.9% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 3% 100%  
8 37% 97%  
9 57% 60% Median
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 8% 100%  
8 52% 92% Median
9 39% 39%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 8% 99.9% Last Result
8 26% 92%  
9 56% 66% Median
10 10% 10%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 16% 99.9%  
8 67% 83% Median
9 16% 17%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 39% 98%  
6 58% 60% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 34 99.6% 33–36 33–36 32–36 32–36
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 57% 30–33 30–33 30–33 29–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 0.3% 27–30 27–30 27–31 27–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 28 0.1% 26–30 26–30 26–30 26–30
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 26 0% 25–27 24–28 24–28 24–28
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 25–27 25–27 24–27 24–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–25 23–25 22–26 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 22–24 22–25 22–25 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–24 22–24 21–25 21–25
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–24 22–24 21–24 20–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 18–21 18–22 18–22 18–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–19
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–19
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 17 0% 16–17 16–18 15–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–14 12–15 12–15 12–15

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.4% 100%  
32 3% 99.6% Majority
33 27% 96%  
34 27% 69% Median
35 26% 42%  
36 15% 16%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 1.0% 100%  
30 10% 99.0%  
31 31% 89%  
32 46% 57% Median, Majority
33 10% 12% Last Result
34 1.4% 1.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 15% 99.8%  
28 26% 84%  
29 27% 58%  
30 27% 31% Median
31 3% 3% Last Result
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 13% 100%  
27 14% 87%  
28 35% 74%  
29 28% 38% Median
30 10% 10%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 7% 99.8%  
25 24% 93% Last Result
26 37% 69% Median
27 26% 32%  
28 6% 6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 4% 99.7% Last Result
25 27% 95%  
26 41% 68% Median
27 26% 27%  
28 1.1% 1.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 4% 99.6%  
23 36% 96% Last Result
24 37% 60% Median
25 20% 23%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 33% 99.5%  
23 22% 66% Last Result
24 37% 44% Median
25 5% 7%  
26 1.2% 1.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100% Last Result
21 4% 99.8%  
22 30% 96%  
23 51% 66% Median
24 13% 16%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 20% 99.1%  
22 38% 79%  
23 34% 42% Median
24 7% 7%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 4% 99.5%  
22 19% 96%  
23 61% 77% Median
24 14% 16%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 15% 99.9%  
22 34% 85%  
23 37% 51% Median
24 12% 14%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 13% 100%  
19 15% 87%  
20 32% 72%  
21 32% 41% Median
22 9% 9%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.0% 100%  
16 10% 99.0%  
17 52% 89% Median
18 31% 37% Last Result
19 6% 6%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 9% 99.6%  
16 30% 91%  
17 45% 61% Median
18 15% 16% Last Result
19 0.9% 0.9%  
20 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 5% 99.7%  
16 38% 95%  
17 49% 58% Last Result, Median
18 8% 8%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 8% 99.7%  
13 32% 92%  
14 50% 59% Median
15 9% 9%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations