Opinion Poll by MMR, 12–19 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 19.1% 17.6–20.8% 17.1–21.2% 16.8–21.7% 16.0–22.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.8% 15.3–18.4% 14.9–18.8% 14.6–19.2% 13.9–20.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 13.0% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.7–13.7% 9.1–14.4%
Píratar 9.2% 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.4% 8.9–14.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.4% 9.3–11.8% 8.9–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.1–13.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.6–11.3% 7.1–11.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 13 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
Samfylkingin 7 12 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 9–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Píratar 6 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 6–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–10
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 22% 98%  
13 42% 77% Median
14 25% 35%  
15 9% 9%  
16 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 1.2% 100%  
10 13% 98.8%  
11 24% 85%  
12 48% 61% Median
13 12% 13%  
14 1.3% 1.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9% Last Result
8 7% 98%  
9 39% 90%  
10 50% 51% Median
11 1.3% 1.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 33% 97%  
8 52% 64% Median
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 9% 99.9% Last Result
7 46% 91% Median
8 35% 45%  
9 10% 10%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100%  
6 30% 98.9%  
7 35% 69% Median
8 31% 34% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100% Last Result
5 12% 99.7%  
6 51% 88% Median
7 34% 37%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 8% 8%  
4 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 36 99.9% 34–37 34–38 33–38 33–39
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 33 89% 31–35 31–35 30–36 30–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 6% 28–31 28–32 27–32 27–32
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 29 0.6% 27–30 27–30 26–31 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 28 0.1% 27–30 26–30 26–30 25–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 25–29 25–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 23–26 23–27 23–27 22–28
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–24 21–24 20–25 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 21 0% 20–23 20–23 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–22 19–22 18–23 18–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 19 0% 18–21 18–21 17–22 17–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 18–21 18–21 17–21 16–22
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 16–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–18

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9% Majority
33 2% 99.5% Last Result
34 12% 97%  
35 25% 85%  
36 31% 61%  
37 23% 30% Median
38 7% 7%  
39 0.7% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.4% 100%  
30 3% 99.6%  
31 8% 97%  
32 20% 89% Majority
33 30% 69% Median
34 25% 38%  
35 11% 14%  
36 3% 3%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 3% 99.6%  
28 13% 96%  
29 27% 83%  
30 32% 56% Median
31 18% 24% Last Result
32 5% 6% Majority
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.9% 100% Last Result
26 3% 99.0%  
27 9% 96%  
28 26% 88%  
29 34% 61%  
30 23% 27% Median
31 4% 4%  
32 0.6% 0.6% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.8%  
26 9% 99.0%  
27 29% 90%  
28 24% 61% Median
29 25% 37%  
30 10% 12%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 5% 99.4%  
25 21% 94%  
26 26% 74% Last Result
27 26% 48% Median
28 19% 22%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.6% 100%  
24 2% 99.4% Last Result
25 16% 97%  
26 17% 81%  
27 39% 64% Median
28 13% 26%  
29 11% 12%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 12% 98% Last Result
24 24% 86%  
25 35% 62% Median
26 22% 27%  
27 5% 5%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.9%  
22 5% 99.2%  
23 22% 95%  
24 31% 72%  
25 28% 41% Median
26 12% 13% Last Result
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 4% 99.4%  
21 7% 96%  
22 34% 88%  
23 36% 54% Last Result, Median
24 13% 18%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.5%  
20 38% 96%  
21 30% 58% Median
22 17% 29%  
23 11% 12%  
24 0.8% 0.8%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 3% 99.5%  
19 26% 97%  
20 31% 71% Median
21 24% 40%  
22 12% 15%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 14% 97%  
19 38% 84% Median
20 30% 46% Last Result
21 14% 17%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.6% 100%  
17 4% 99.3%  
18 17% 96% Last Result
19 32% 78%  
20 32% 46% Median
21 11% 14%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 3% 99.4%  
16 18% 96%  
17 42% 78%  
18 31% 37% Last Result, Median
19 5% 5%  
20 0.7% 0.7%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 20% 97%  
15 44% 77% Median
16 21% 33%  
17 10% 12% Last Result
18 3% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 12% 99.4%  
14 29% 88%  
15 29% 59% Median
16 26% 30%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.8% 0.8%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations