Opinion Poll by MMR, 12–19 August 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
19.1% |
17.6–20.8% |
17.1–21.2% |
16.8–21.7% |
16.0–22.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.8% |
15.3–18.4% |
14.9–18.8% |
14.6–19.2% |
13.9–20.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
13.0% |
11.8–14.5% |
11.4–14.9% |
11.1–15.3% |
10.5–16.0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.5% |
10.3–12.9% |
10.0–13.3% |
9.7–13.7% |
9.1–14.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.3% |
10.1–12.7% |
9.8–13.1% |
9.5–13.4% |
8.9–14.1% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
10.4% |
9.3–11.8% |
8.9–12.1% |
8.7–12.5% |
8.1–13.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.3% |
8.2–10.6% |
7.9–10.9% |
7.6–11.3% |
7.1–11.9% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.1% |
3.4–5.1% |
3.2–5.3% |
3.1–5.6% |
2.8–6.1% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
2.9% |
2.3–3.7% |
2.2–4.0% |
2.0–4.2% |
1.8–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
22% |
98% |
|
13 |
42% |
77% |
Median |
14 |
25% |
35% |
|
15 |
9% |
9% |
|
16 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
10 |
13% |
98.8% |
|
11 |
24% |
85% |
|
12 |
48% |
61% |
Median |
13 |
12% |
13% |
|
14 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
8 |
7% |
98% |
|
9 |
39% |
90% |
|
10 |
50% |
51% |
Median |
11 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
3% |
100% |
|
7 |
33% |
97% |
|
8 |
52% |
64% |
Median |
9 |
10% |
12% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
9% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
7 |
46% |
91% |
Median |
8 |
35% |
45% |
|
9 |
10% |
10% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
30% |
98.9% |
|
7 |
35% |
69% |
Median |
8 |
31% |
34% |
Last Result |
9 |
2% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
12% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
51% |
88% |
Median |
7 |
34% |
37% |
|
8 |
2% |
3% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
8% |
|
2 |
0% |
8% |
|
3 |
8% |
8% |
|
4 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
36 |
99.9% |
34–37 |
34–38 |
33–38 |
33–39 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
89% |
31–35 |
31–35 |
30–36 |
30–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
6% |
28–31 |
28–32 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
29 |
0.6% |
27–30 |
27–30 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
28 |
0.1% |
27–30 |
26–30 |
26–30 |
25–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–25 |
19–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–22 |
17–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–18 |
13–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
13–17 |
12–18 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
34 |
12% |
97% |
|
35 |
25% |
85% |
|
36 |
31% |
61% |
|
37 |
23% |
30% |
Median |
38 |
7% |
7% |
|
39 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
30 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
31 |
8% |
97% |
|
32 |
20% |
89% |
Majority |
33 |
30% |
69% |
Median |
34 |
25% |
38% |
|
35 |
11% |
14% |
|
36 |
3% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
13% |
96% |
|
29 |
27% |
83% |
|
30 |
32% |
56% |
Median |
31 |
18% |
24% |
Last Result |
32 |
5% |
6% |
Majority |
33 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.9% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
27 |
9% |
96% |
|
28 |
26% |
88% |
|
29 |
34% |
61% |
|
30 |
23% |
27% |
Median |
31 |
4% |
4% |
|
32 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
9% |
99.0% |
|
27 |
29% |
90% |
|
28 |
24% |
61% |
Median |
29 |
25% |
37% |
|
30 |
10% |
12% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
25 |
21% |
94% |
|
26 |
26% |
74% |
Last Result |
27 |
26% |
48% |
Median |
28 |
19% |
22% |
|
29 |
2% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
25 |
16% |
97% |
|
26 |
17% |
81% |
|
27 |
39% |
64% |
Median |
28 |
13% |
26% |
|
29 |
11% |
12% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
12% |
98% |
Last Result |
24 |
24% |
86% |
|
25 |
35% |
62% |
Median |
26 |
22% |
27% |
|
27 |
5% |
5% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
5% |
99.2% |
|
23 |
22% |
95% |
|
24 |
31% |
72% |
|
25 |
28% |
41% |
Median |
26 |
12% |
13% |
Last Result |
27 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
21 |
7% |
96% |
|
22 |
34% |
88% |
|
23 |
36% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
13% |
18% |
|
25 |
4% |
5% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
20 |
38% |
96% |
|
21 |
30% |
58% |
Median |
22 |
17% |
29% |
|
23 |
11% |
12% |
|
24 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
19 |
26% |
97% |
|
20 |
31% |
71% |
Median |
21 |
24% |
40% |
|
22 |
12% |
15% |
|
23 |
3% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
18 |
14% |
97% |
|
19 |
38% |
84% |
Median |
20 |
30% |
46% |
Last Result |
21 |
14% |
17% |
|
22 |
2% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
17 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
18 |
17% |
96% |
Last Result |
19 |
32% |
78% |
|
20 |
32% |
46% |
Median |
21 |
11% |
14% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
15 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
16 |
18% |
96% |
|
17 |
42% |
78% |
|
18 |
31% |
37% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
5% |
5% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
20% |
97% |
|
15 |
44% |
77% |
Median |
16 |
21% |
33% |
|
17 |
10% |
12% |
Last Result |
18 |
3% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
13 |
12% |
99.4% |
|
14 |
29% |
88% |
|
15 |
29% |
59% |
Median |
16 |
26% |
30% |
|
17 |
3% |
4% |
|
18 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–19 August 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 990
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.08%