Opinion Poll by Gallup, 29 July–1 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.7% |
20.9–22.6% |
20.7–22.8% |
20.5–23.0% |
20.1–23.4% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.5% |
14.8–16.2% |
14.6–16.5% |
14.4–16.6% |
14.1–17.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
13.4% |
12.7–14.1% |
12.5–14.3% |
12.4–14.5% |
12.1–14.8% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.8% |
12.1–13.5% |
12.0–13.7% |
11.8–13.9% |
11.5–14.2% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
11.4% |
10.8–12.1% |
10.6–12.3% |
10.4–12.4% |
10.2–12.7% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
9.3% |
8.7–9.9% |
8.6–10.1% |
8.4–10.2% |
8.2–10.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.3% |
7.8–8.9% |
7.6–9.1% |
7.5–9.2% |
7.2–9.5% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.8% |
3.4–4.2% |
3.3–4.3% |
3.2–4.4% |
3.1–4.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.7% |
3.3–4.1% |
3.2–4.2% |
3.2–4.3% |
3.0–4.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
19% |
100% |
|
15 |
69% |
81% |
Median |
16 |
12% |
12% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
10 |
52% |
99.3% |
Median |
11 |
46% |
47% |
|
12 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
42% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
58% |
58% |
Median |
11 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
39% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
46% |
61% |
Median |
10 |
15% |
15% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
50% |
100% |
|
8 |
50% |
50% |
Median |
9 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
79% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
19% |
19% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
42% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
57% |
57% |
Median |
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
34 |
100% |
34–35 |
33–35 |
33–36 |
33–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar |
28 |
33 |
98% |
32–34 |
32–34 |
32–34 |
31–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
2% |
29–31 |
29–31 |
29–31 |
28–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
25 |
0% |
25–27 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
25–26 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
23–26 |
23–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–25 |
23–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
22–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
22–23 |
21–23 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
20–21 |
20–21 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
18–19 |
18–19 |
18–20 |
17–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–16 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.2% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
5% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
34 |
54% |
95% |
|
35 |
37% |
41% |
Median |
36 |
4% |
4% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
2% |
100% |
|
32 |
27% |
98% |
Majority |
33 |
50% |
71% |
Median |
34 |
18% |
20% |
|
35 |
2% |
2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
2% |
100% |
|
29 |
18% |
98% |
|
30 |
50% |
80% |
|
31 |
27% |
29% |
Last Result, Median |
32 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
28 |
18% |
99.7% |
|
29 |
44% |
82% |
|
30 |
31% |
38% |
Median |
31 |
7% |
7% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
28 |
31% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
56% |
69% |
Median |
30 |
13% |
13% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
8% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
56% |
92% |
Median |
26 |
25% |
36% |
|
27 |
12% |
12% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
10% |
100% |
|
25 |
45% |
90% |
Median |
26 |
40% |
45% |
|
27 |
5% |
5% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
3% |
100% |
|
24 |
26% |
97% |
|
25 |
60% |
71% |
Median |
26 |
9% |
11% |
Last Result |
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
5% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
43% |
95% |
|
25 |
47% |
51% |
Median |
26 |
5% |
5% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
27% |
98.9% |
|
24 |
51% |
72% |
|
25 |
21% |
21% |
Median |
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
8% |
100% |
|
23 |
34% |
92% |
|
24 |
40% |
58% |
Median |
25 |
17% |
18% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
5% |
100% |
|
22 |
50% |
94% |
|
23 |
41% |
45% |
Median |
24 |
4% |
4% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
3% |
100% |
|
20 |
47% |
97% |
|
21 |
45% |
49% |
Median |
22 |
4% |
4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
15% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
19 |
52% |
85% |
Median |
20 |
28% |
33% |
|
21 |
5% |
5% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
67% |
98% |
Last Result |
19 |
27% |
31% |
Median |
20 |
4% |
4% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
14 |
30% |
99.4% |
|
15 |
45% |
69% |
Median |
16 |
24% |
24% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
12% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
48% |
88% |
|
15 |
34% |
40% |
Median |
16 |
6% |
6% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 29 July–1 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 3976
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.34%