Opinion Poll by Gallup, 29 July–1 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.7% 20.9–22.6% 20.7–22.8% 20.5–23.0% 20.1–23.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.5% 14.8–16.2% 14.6–16.5% 14.4–16.6% 14.1–17.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 13.4% 12.7–14.1% 12.5–14.3% 12.4–14.5% 12.1–14.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.8% 12.1–13.5% 12.0–13.7% 11.8–13.9% 11.5–14.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.4% 10.8–12.1% 10.6–12.3% 10.4–12.4% 10.2–12.7%
Píratar 9.2% 9.3% 8.7–9.9% 8.6–10.1% 8.4–10.2% 8.2–10.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.3% 7.8–8.9% 7.6–9.1% 7.5–9.2% 7.2–9.5%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.8% 3.4–4.2% 3.3–4.3% 3.2–4.4% 3.1–4.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.7% 3.3–4.1% 3.2–4.2% 3.2–4.3% 3.0–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–16 14–16 14–16 14–16
Samfylkingin 7 10 10–11 10–11 10–11 9–12
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Viðreisn 4 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Píratar 6 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 19% 100%  
15 69% 81% Median
16 12% 12% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 100%  
10 52% 99.3% Median
11 46% 47%  
12 1.1% 1.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.1% 100%  
9 42% 99.9%  
10 58% 58% Median
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 39% 99.9%  
9 46% 61% Median
10 15% 15%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 50% 100%  
8 50% 50% Median
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 79% 98% Last Result, Median
7 19% 19%  
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 42% 99.9%  
6 57% 57% Median
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 34 100% 34–35 33–35 33–36 33–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar 28 33 98% 32–34 32–34 32–34 31–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 2% 29–31 29–31 29–31 28–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 29 0% 28–30 28–31 28–31 28–31
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 29 0% 28–30 28–30 28–30 28–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 25 0% 25–27 24–27 24–27 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 25–26 24–27 24–27 24–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 24–26 24–26 23–26 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 25 0% 24–25 23–25 23–26 23–26
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–25 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 22–23 21–23 21–24 21–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 20–21 20–21 19–22 19–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 18–20 18–21 18–21 18–21
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 18–19 18–19 18–20 17–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–16 13–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–15 13–16 13–16 13–16

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100% Majority
33 5% 99.8% Last Result
34 54% 95%  
35 37% 41% Median
36 4% 4%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 2% 100%  
32 27% 98% Majority
33 50% 71% Median
34 18% 20%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 2% 100%  
29 18% 98%  
30 50% 80%  
31 27% 29% Last Result, Median
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 18% 99.7%  
29 44% 82%  
30 31% 38% Median
31 7% 7%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0% 100%  
27 0.4% 100%  
28 31% 99.6%  
29 56% 69% Median
30 13% 13%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 8% 99.9% Last Result
25 56% 92% Median
26 25% 36%  
27 12% 12%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 10% 100%  
25 45% 90% Median
26 40% 45%  
27 5% 5%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 3% 100%  
24 26% 97%  
25 60% 71% Median
26 9% 11% Last Result
27 2% 2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 5% 100% Last Result
24 43% 95%  
25 47% 51% Median
26 5% 5%  
27 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 1.1% 100%  
23 27% 98.9%  
24 51% 72%  
25 21% 21% Median
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 8% 100%  
23 34% 92%  
24 40% 58% Median
25 17% 18%  
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 5% 100%  
22 50% 94%  
23 41% 45% Median
24 4% 4%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 3% 100%  
20 47% 97%  
21 45% 49% Median
22 4% 4%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 15% 99.9% Last Result
19 52% 85% Median
20 28% 33%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 67% 98% Last Result
19 27% 31% Median
20 4% 4%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 30% 99.4%  
15 45% 69% Median
16 24% 24%  
17 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 12% 99.9%  
14 48% 88%  
15 34% 40% Median
16 6% 6%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations