Opinion Poll by MMR, 9–16 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
18.3% |
16.8–19.9% |
16.4–20.3% |
16.0–20.7% |
15.4–21.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.8% |
13.5–16.3% |
13.1–16.8% |
12.8–17.1% |
12.2–17.8% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.8% |
11.6–14.2% |
11.2–14.6% |
10.9–15.0% |
10.4–15.7% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.4% |
11.2–13.8% |
10.9–14.2% |
10.6–14.6% |
10.0–15.3% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
12.1% |
10.9–13.4% |
10.5–13.8% |
10.2–14.2% |
9.7–14.9% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.8% |
10.6–13.1% |
10.2–13.5% |
10.0–13.9% |
9.4–14.6% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.2% |
9.1–11.5% |
8.8–11.9% |
8.6–12.2% |
8.0–12.9% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
3.0–5.4% |
2.7–5.9% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.7% |
1.4–2.9% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
11 |
13% |
98.9% |
|
12 |
40% |
86% |
Median |
13 |
36% |
46% |
|
14 |
9% |
10% |
|
15 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
4% |
100% |
|
9 |
18% |
96% |
|
10 |
49% |
78% |
Median |
11 |
26% |
30% |
|
12 |
3% |
4% |
|
13 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
31% |
92% |
|
9 |
47% |
61% |
Median |
10 |
14% |
15% |
|
11 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
10% |
99.5% |
|
8 |
51% |
89% |
Median |
9 |
34% |
38% |
|
10 |
4% |
4% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
2% |
100% |
|
7 |
14% |
98% |
Last Result |
8 |
35% |
85% |
Median |
9 |
35% |
49% |
|
10 |
14% |
14% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
7 |
22% |
98% |
|
8 |
54% |
76% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
13% |
23% |
|
10 |
10% |
10% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
41% |
98% |
|
7 |
45% |
57% |
Median |
8 |
11% |
12% |
|
9 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
10% |
|
2 |
0% |
10% |
|
3 |
9% |
10% |
|
4 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
35 |
99.7% |
34–37 |
33–37 |
33–37 |
32–38 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
34 |
95% |
32–35 |
31–36 |
31–36 |
30–37 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
29 |
5% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
26–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
1.1% |
27–30 |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
24–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
27 |
0% |
26–29 |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
24–30 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
17–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–21 |
16–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
17 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
Majority |
33 |
7% |
99.1% |
Last Result |
34 |
15% |
92% |
|
35 |
29% |
77% |
Median |
36 |
37% |
49% |
|
37 |
10% |
11% |
|
38 |
2% |
2% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
32 |
12% |
95% |
Majority |
33 |
15% |
83% |
|
34 |
48% |
68% |
Median |
35 |
10% |
19% |
|
36 |
7% |
10% |
|
37 |
2% |
2% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
8% |
97% |
|
28 |
15% |
89% |
|
29 |
31% |
74% |
Median |
30 |
31% |
42% |
|
31 |
6% |
11% |
|
32 |
4% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
8% |
97% |
|
28 |
13% |
89% |
Median |
29 |
51% |
75% |
|
30 |
15% |
24% |
|
31 |
8% |
9% |
Last Result |
32 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
25 |
9% |
98% |
|
26 |
21% |
89% |
|
27 |
29% |
68% |
Median |
28 |
28% |
39% |
|
29 |
8% |
12% |
|
30 |
3% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.4% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
6% |
98% |
Last Result |
26 |
17% |
92% |
|
27 |
34% |
76% |
Median |
28 |
26% |
41% |
|
29 |
14% |
15% |
|
30 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
24 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
13% |
96% |
|
26 |
18% |
84% |
Last Result |
27 |
34% |
65% |
Median |
28 |
24% |
31% |
|
29 |
4% |
7% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
6% |
98.9% |
|
24 |
18% |
93% |
|
25 |
32% |
75% |
Median |
26 |
31% |
42% |
Last Result |
27 |
10% |
12% |
|
28 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
14% |
95% |
|
22 |
31% |
81% |
Median |
23 |
28% |
50% |
Last Result |
24 |
19% |
22% |
|
25 |
3% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
8% |
98% |
|
20 |
17% |
90% |
|
21 |
37% |
73% |
Median |
22 |
27% |
37% |
|
23 |
7% |
10% |
|
24 |
3% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
19 |
7% |
98% |
|
20 |
23% |
90% |
Median |
21 |
42% |
67% |
|
22 |
17% |
25% |
|
23 |
7% |
8% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
14% |
95% |
|
20 |
30% |
81% |
Median |
21 |
35% |
52% |
|
22 |
12% |
16% |
|
23 |
3% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
17 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
18 |
20% |
95% |
|
19 |
44% |
75% |
Median |
20 |
23% |
31% |
Last Result |
21 |
6% |
8% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
9% |
97% |
|
18 |
25% |
88% |
Last Result |
19 |
38% |
63% |
Median |
20 |
20% |
25% |
|
21 |
4% |
5% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
12% |
98.6% |
|
16 |
27% |
87% |
|
17 |
35% |
60% |
Median |
18 |
19% |
25% |
|
19 |
5% |
6% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
5% |
98.7% |
|
16 |
23% |
93% |
|
17 |
31% |
71% |
Median |
18 |
28% |
40% |
Last Result |
19 |
11% |
11% |
|
20 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
15 |
7% |
99.3% |
|
16 |
24% |
93% |
|
17 |
38% |
69% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
24% |
31% |
|
19 |
6% |
7% |
|
20 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–16 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1045
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.71%