Opinion Poll by MMR, 9–16 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 18.3% 16.8–19.9% 16.4–20.3% 16.0–20.7% 15.4–21.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.8% 13.5–16.3% 13.1–16.8% 12.8–17.1% 12.2–17.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.8% 11.6–14.2% 11.2–14.6% 10.9–15.0% 10.4–15.7%
Píratar 9.2% 12.4% 11.2–13.8% 10.9–14.2% 10.6–14.6% 10.0–15.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 12.1% 10.9–13.4% 10.5–13.8% 10.2–14.2% 9.7–14.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.8% 10.6–13.1% 10.2–13.5% 10.0–13.9% 9.4–14.6%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.8–11.9% 8.6–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 12 11–14 11–14 11–14 10–15
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 7–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.0% 100%  
11 13% 98.9%  
12 40% 86% Median
13 36% 46%  
14 9% 10%  
15 1.0% 1.0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 4% 100%  
9 18% 96%  
10 49% 78% Median
11 26% 30%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 8% 99.9%  
8 31% 92%  
9 47% 61% Median
10 14% 15%  
11 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100% Last Result
7 10% 99.5%  
8 51% 89% Median
9 34% 38%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 14% 98% Last Result
8 35% 85% Median
9 35% 49%  
10 14% 14%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.5% 100%  
7 22% 98%  
8 54% 76% Last Result, Median
9 13% 23%  
10 10% 10%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 2% 100%  
6 41% 98%  
7 45% 57% Median
8 11% 12%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 9% 10%  
4 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 35 99.7% 34–37 33–37 33–37 32–38
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 34 95% 32–35 31–36 31–36 30–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 29 5% 27–31 27–31 26–32 26–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 1.1% 27–30 27–31 26–31 26–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 25–29 25–29 25–30 24–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 27 0% 26–29 25–29 25–29 24–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 27 0% 25–28 25–29 24–29 24–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 22 0% 21–24 21–24 20–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 21 0% 20–22 19–23 19–24 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 20–22 19–23 19–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 19–22 19–22 18–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 19 0% 18–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–18 15–19 15–19 14–20

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.7% Majority
33 7% 99.1% Last Result
34 15% 92%  
35 29% 77% Median
36 37% 49%  
37 10% 11%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.9%  
31 4% 99.1%  
32 12% 95% Majority
33 15% 83%  
34 48% 68% Median
35 10% 19%  
36 7% 10%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 3% 99.8%  
27 8% 97%  
28 15% 89%  
29 31% 74% Median
30 31% 42%  
31 6% 11%  
32 4% 5% Majority
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.8%  
27 8% 97%  
28 13% 89% Median
29 51% 75%  
30 15% 24%  
31 8% 9% Last Result
32 1.0% 1.1% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 2% 99.8% Last Result
25 9% 98%  
26 21% 89%  
27 29% 68% Median
28 28% 39%  
29 8% 12%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 1.4% 99.6%  
25 6% 98% Last Result
26 17% 92%  
27 34% 76% Median
28 26% 41%  
29 14% 15%  
30 1.3% 1.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 4% 99.7%  
25 13% 96%  
26 18% 84% Last Result
27 34% 65% Median
28 24% 31%  
29 4% 7%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.0% 99.9%  
23 6% 98.9%  
24 18% 93%  
25 32% 75% Median
26 31% 42% Last Result
27 10% 12%  
28 1.2% 1.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 4% 99.6%  
21 14% 95%  
22 31% 81% Median
23 28% 50% Last Result
24 19% 22%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 8% 98%  
20 17% 90%  
21 37% 73% Median
22 27% 37%  
23 7% 10%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.6% 100%  
18 2% 99.4%  
19 7% 98%  
20 23% 90% Median
21 42% 67%  
22 17% 25%  
23 7% 8% Last Result
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 4% 99.6%  
19 14% 95%  
20 30% 81% Median
21 35% 52%  
22 12% 16%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.6% 100%  
17 5% 99.4%  
18 20% 95%  
19 44% 75% Median
20 23% 31% Last Result
21 6% 8%  
22 1.2% 1.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 3% 99.8%  
17 9% 97%  
18 25% 88% Last Result
19 38% 63% Median
20 20% 25%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.9%  
15 12% 98.6%  
16 27% 87%  
17 35% 60% Median
18 19% 25%  
19 5% 6% Last Result
20 0.6% 0.6%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.9%  
15 5% 98.7%  
16 23% 93%  
17 31% 71% Median
18 28% 40% Last Result
19 11% 11%  
20 0.8% 0.8%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.7% 100%  
15 7% 99.3%  
16 24% 93%  
17 38% 69% Last Result, Median
18 24% 31%  
19 6% 7%  
20 0.9% 0.9%  
21 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations