Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–30 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.6% 22.3–24.9% 22.0–25.2% 21.7–25.5% 21.1–26.2%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.1% 15.1–17.3% 14.8–17.6% 14.5–17.9% 14.1–18.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 12.3% 11.4–13.3% 11.1–13.6% 10.9–13.9% 10.5–14.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.0% 11.1–13.1% 10.9–13.4% 10.7–13.6% 10.2–14.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.3% 10.4–12.2% 10.1–12.5% 9.9–12.8% 9.5–13.2%
Píratar 9.2% 9.7% 8.9–10.6% 8.7–10.9% 8.5–11.1% 8.1–11.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.9% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.4–9.6%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.7%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.3% 2.2–3.4% 2.1–3.6% 1.9–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–17 15–17 15–18 14–18
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–12
Miðflokkurinn 7 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
Viðreisn 4 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 6–9
Píratar 6 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.1% 99.9%  
15 32% 98.9%  
16 37% 66% Last Result, Median
17 26% 30%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 25% 98%  
11 56% 73% Median
12 16% 16%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 4% 99.8% Last Result
8 14% 96%  
9 43% 82% Median
10 39% 39%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100%  
7 24% 99.1%  
8 54% 75% Median
9 14% 21%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 5% 100%  
7 59% 94% Median
8 30% 36%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 7% 100%  
6 58% 93% Last Result, Median
7 34% 35%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 6% 100%  
5 77% 94% Median
6 17% 17%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 33 96% 32–34 32–35 31–35 30–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar 28 32 81% 31–34 30–34 30–35 29–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 15% 29–32 28–32 28–32 27–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 29 0.5% 28–30 28–31 27–31 26–32
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 28 0% 27–29 27–29 26–30 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 26–28 25–28 25–29 24–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 25 0% 23–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–24 22–25 22–25 21–26
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–23 21–24 20–24 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–23 19–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 16–19 15–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 14 0% 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–15

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.8% 100%  
31 4% 99.2%  
32 16% 96% Majority
33 43% 80% Last Result, Median
34 31% 37%  
35 6% 6%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
29 1.1% 99.8%  
30 4% 98.7%  
31 14% 95%  
32 32% 81% Median, Majority
33 22% 49%  
34 22% 27%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.5% 0.5%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.4% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.6%  
28 5% 99.0%  
29 23% 94%  
30 23% 70% Median
31 32% 47% Last Result
32 12% 15% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.7% 100%  
27 3% 99.2%  
28 21% 96%  
29 40% 75% Median
30 26% 34%  
31 7% 8%  
32 0.5% 0.5% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
26 4% 99.1%  
27 23% 95%  
28 38% 72% Median
29 30% 35%  
30 4% 4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.6% 100%  
25 7% 99.3%  
26 34% 93%  
27 27% 59% Median
28 28% 32%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.6%  
23 10% 99.0% Last Result
24 16% 89%  
25 30% 72% Median
26 30% 42%  
27 11% 12%  
28 1.4% 1.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.9%  
23 6% 99.0%  
24 24% 93% Last Result
25 25% 69% Median
26 34% 44%  
27 8% 10%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.5%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.9%  
22 7% 99.2%  
23 23% 92%  
24 36% 69% Median
25 26% 33%  
26 7% 7% Last Result
27 0.6% 0.6%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 5% 99.5%  
23 28% 94%  
24 34% 66% Median
25 25% 32%  
26 7% 8%  
27 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100% Last Result
21 1.0% 99.9%  
22 16% 98.8%  
23 39% 82% Median
24 34% 43%  
25 8% 9%  
26 1.1% 1.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 3% 99.8%  
21 9% 97%  
22 52% 88% Median
23 26% 36%  
24 10% 10%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 25% 98%  
21 39% 73% Median
22 29% 34%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.9%  
17 10% 99.4%  
18 25% 90% Last Result
19 36% 65% Median
20 24% 29%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 4% 99.7%  
16 10% 96%  
17 55% 85% Median
18 23% 30% Last Result
19 7% 7%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 14% 96%  
14 42% 82% Median
15 28% 40%  
16 11% 12%  
17 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 18% 98%  
13 52% 80% Median
14 20% 28%  
15 8% 8%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations