Opinion Poll by MMR, 30 September–9 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
19.8% |
18.7–21.0% |
18.4–21.3% |
18.2–21.6% |
17.7–22.1% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
14.8% |
13.8–15.8% |
13.6–16.1% |
13.3–16.4% |
12.9–16.9% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.1% |
13.2–15.1% |
12.9–15.4% |
12.7–15.6% |
12.2–16.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
11.0% |
10.2–11.9% |
10.0–12.2% |
9.8–12.4% |
9.4–12.9% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.3% |
9.5–11.2% |
9.3–11.5% |
9.1–11.7% |
8.7–12.1% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
10.1% |
9.3–11.0% |
9.1–11.3% |
8.9–11.5% |
8.6–11.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
8.8% |
8.1–9.6% |
7.8–9.9% |
7.7–10.1% |
7.3–10.5% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.6% |
5.0–6.3% |
4.8–6.5% |
4.7–6.7% |
4.4–7.0% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.1% |
2.7–3.6% |
2.5–3.8% |
2.5–3.9% |
2.3–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
46% |
96% |
Median |
14 |
37% |
50% |
|
15 |
12% |
13% |
|
16 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
10 |
58% |
99.2% |
Median |
11 |
35% |
41% |
|
12 |
5% |
5% |
|
13 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
4% |
100% |
|
9 |
42% |
96% |
|
10 |
51% |
53% |
Median |
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
7% |
100% |
|
7 |
66% |
93% |
Median |
8 |
26% |
27% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
32% |
99.7% |
|
7 |
61% |
68% |
Median |
8 |
7% |
7% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
6 |
38% |
99.4% |
|
7 |
55% |
61% |
Median |
8 |
5% |
6% |
Last Result |
9 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
10 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
45% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
48% |
55% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
7% |
7% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
5% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
95% |
|
2 |
0% |
95% |
|
3 |
60% |
95% |
Median |
4 |
34% |
34% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
33 |
98% |
32–35 |
32–35 |
32–35 |
31–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
31 |
22% |
29–32 |
29–32 |
29–33 |
29–34 |
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
28 |
29 |
0.9% |
28–30 |
28–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–29 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–26 |
22–26 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
20–23 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–22 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
20 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
16–19 |
16–20 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–18 |
14–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
13 |
0% |
12–14 |
12–15 |
12–15 |
12–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
12 |
0% |
11–13 |
11–14 |
11–14 |
11–14 |
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
2% |
100% |
|
32 |
20% |
98% |
Majority |
33 |
32% |
78% |
Last Result |
34 |
29% |
46% |
Median |
35 |
16% |
17% |
|
36 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
29 |
10% |
99.7% |
|
30 |
28% |
89% |
Median |
31 |
39% |
61% |
Last Result |
32 |
19% |
22% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
3% |
|
34 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
26% |
97% |
Last Result |
29 |
40% |
71% |
|
30 |
22% |
31% |
Median |
31 |
8% |
9% |
|
32 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
Majority |
33 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
23% |
97% |
|
27 |
51% |
75% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
23% |
|
29 |
4% |
6% |
|
30 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
2% |
100% |
|
25 |
9% |
98% |
Last Result |
26 |
31% |
89% |
|
27 |
34% |
58% |
Median |
28 |
22% |
24% |
|
29 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
2% |
100% |
|
23 |
21% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
48% |
76% |
|
25 |
25% |
28% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
27% |
92% |
|
24 |
37% |
65% |
Median |
25 |
23% |
28% |
|
26 |
4% |
5% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
25% |
96% |
|
23 |
47% |
71% |
|
24 |
21% |
24% |
Median |
25 |
2% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
25% |
97% |
|
23 |
42% |
73% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
21% |
31% |
|
25 |
9% |
9% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
5% |
98.9% |
|
21 |
26% |
94% |
|
22 |
47% |
69% |
|
23 |
19% |
22% |
Median |
24 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
19 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
32% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
42% |
61% |
|
22 |
16% |
20% |
|
23 |
3% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
19 |
18% |
99.4% |
|
20 |
43% |
82% |
Median |
21 |
31% |
38% |
|
22 |
6% |
7% |
|
23 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
7% |
98.8% |
|
20 |
60% |
91% |
Median |
21 |
20% |
31% |
|
22 |
10% |
11% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
16 |
18% |
99.5% |
|
17 |
47% |
81% |
Median |
18 |
30% |
35% |
Last Result |
19 |
4% |
4% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
2% |
100% |
|
15 |
13% |
98% |
|
16 |
48% |
85% |
|
17 |
33% |
37% |
Median |
18 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
10% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
45% |
90% |
|
14 |
38% |
45% |
Median |
15 |
6% |
7% |
|
16 |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
11 |
15% |
99.8% |
|
12 |
43% |
84% |
|
13 |
32% |
42% |
Median |
14 |
9% |
9% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30 September–9 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2124
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%