Opinion Poll by MMR, 30 September–9 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 19.8% 18.7–21.0% 18.4–21.3% 18.2–21.6% 17.7–22.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 14.8% 13.8–15.8% 13.6–16.1% 13.3–16.4% 12.9–16.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.1% 13.2–15.1% 12.9–15.4% 12.7–15.6% 12.2–16.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 10.0–12.2% 9.8–12.4% 9.4–12.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.3% 9.5–11.2% 9.3–11.5% 9.1–11.7% 8.7–12.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.1% 9.3–11.0% 9.1–11.3% 8.9–11.5% 8.6–11.9%
Píratar 9.2% 8.8% 8.1–9.6% 7.8–9.9% 7.7–10.1% 7.3–10.5%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.6% 5.0–6.3% 4.8–6.5% 4.7–6.7% 4.4–7.0%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.1% 2.7–3.6% 2.5–3.8% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 13 13–15 13–15 12–15 12–16
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 10–11 10–12 10–12 9–13
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–10 9–10 8–10 8–11
Viðreisn 4 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–10
Píratar 6 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 3–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 4% 99.8%  
13 46% 96% Median
14 37% 50%  
15 12% 13%  
16 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.8% 100%  
10 58% 99.2% Median
11 35% 41%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 4% 100%  
9 42% 96%  
10 51% 53% Median
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 7% 100%  
7 66% 93% Median
8 26% 27%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 32% 99.7%  
7 61% 68% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 38% 99.4%  
7 55% 61% Median
8 5% 6% Last Result
9 0.5% 1.4%  
10 0.9% 0.9%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 45% 99.8%  
6 48% 55% Last Result, Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 60% 95% Median
4 34% 34% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 33 98% 32–35 32–35 32–35 31–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 31 22% 29–32 29–32 29–33 29–34
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 28 29 0.9% 28–30 28–31 27–31 26–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 27 0% 26–28 26–29 25–29 25–30
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 27 0% 25–28 25–28 25–28 24–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–26 22–26
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–26 22–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–24 22–24 21–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 22–24 22–25 21–25 21–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 22 0% 21–23 20–23 20–24 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 20–22 19–22 19–23 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–21 19–22 19–22 18–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 20 0% 20–22 19–22 19–22 18–23
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–19 16–20
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–18 14–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 12–14 12–15 12–15 12–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 12 0% 11–13 11–14 11–14 11–14

Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 2% 100%  
32 20% 98% Majority
33 32% 78% Last Result
34 29% 46% Median
35 16% 17%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 10% 99.7%  
30 28% 89% Median
31 39% 61% Last Result
32 19% 22% Majority
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.6% 100%  
27 3% 99.4%  
28 26% 97% Last Result
29 40% 71%  
30 22% 31% Median
31 8% 9%  
32 0.7% 0.9% Majority
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 3% 99.9%  
26 23% 97%  
27 51% 75% Median
28 17% 23%  
29 4% 6%  
30 1.5% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 2% 100%  
25 9% 98% Last Result
26 31% 89%  
27 34% 58% Median
28 22% 24%  
29 1.5% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 2% 100%  
23 21% 98% Last Result, Median
24 48% 76%  
25 25% 28%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 8% 99.9%  
23 27% 92%  
24 37% 65% Median
25 23% 28%  
26 4% 5% Last Result
27 0.7% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 3% 99.8%  
22 25% 96%  
23 47% 71%  
24 21% 24% Median
25 2% 3%  
26 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 25% 97%  
23 42% 73% Last Result, Median
24 21% 31%  
25 9% 9%  
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.1% 100%  
20 5% 98.9%  
21 26% 94%  
22 47% 69%  
23 19% 22% Median
24 3% 3% Last Result
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 6% 99.7%  
20 32% 94% Last Result, Median
21 42% 61%  
22 16% 20%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.6% 100%  
19 18% 99.4%  
20 43% 82% Median
21 31% 38%  
22 6% 7%  
23 1.3% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.2% 100%  
19 7% 98.8%  
20 60% 91% Median
21 20% 31%  
22 10% 11%  
23 0.9% 0.9%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 18% 99.5%  
17 47% 81% Median
18 30% 35% Last Result
19 4% 4%  
20 0.6% 0.6%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100%  
15 13% 98%  
16 48% 85%  
17 33% 37% Median
18 4% 4% Last Result
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 10% 99.9%  
13 45% 90%  
14 38% 45% Median
15 6% 7%  
16 1.2% 1.5%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 15% 99.8%  
12 43% 84%  
13 32% 42% Median
14 9% 9%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations