Opinion Poll by Zenter, 10–14 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
19.7% |
18.3–21.2% |
17.9–21.6% |
17.6–22.0% |
16.9–22.8% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
18.5% |
17.2–20.0% |
16.8–20.5% |
16.5–20.8% |
15.8–21.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.6% |
11.4–13.8% |
11.1–14.2% |
10.8–14.5% |
10.3–15.2% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
11.6% |
10.5–12.9% |
10.2–13.3% |
10.0–13.6% |
9.5–14.2% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
11.3% |
10.2–12.6% |
9.9–12.9% |
9.7–13.2% |
9.2–13.8% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.9% |
9.8–12.1% |
9.5–12.5% |
9.3–12.8% |
8.8–13.4% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.3% |
6.4–8.4% |
6.2–8.6% |
6.0–8.9% |
5.6–9.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.1% |
3.0–5.3% |
2.8–5.7% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
2.9% |
2.3–3.6% |
2.2–3.8% |
2.1–4.0% |
1.8–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
12 |
8% |
99.4% |
|
13 |
48% |
92% |
Median |
14 |
32% |
44% |
|
15 |
11% |
12% |
|
16 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
11 |
7% |
99.7% |
|
12 |
28% |
93% |
|
13 |
40% |
64% |
Median |
14 |
22% |
24% |
|
15 |
2% |
2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
14% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
32% |
86% |
|
9 |
38% |
54% |
Median |
10 |
16% |
16% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
3% |
100% |
|
7 |
15% |
97% |
Last Result |
8 |
45% |
83% |
Median |
9 |
30% |
38% |
|
10 |
7% |
7% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
4% |
100% |
|
7 |
41% |
96% |
|
8 |
43% |
55% |
Median |
9 |
12% |
12% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
6 |
9% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
7 |
52% |
91% |
Median |
8 |
35% |
39% |
|
9 |
4% |
4% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
4 |
31% |
99.4% |
|
5 |
63% |
68% |
Median |
6 |
5% |
5% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
94% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
6% |
|
2 |
0% |
6% |
|
3 |
5% |
6% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar |
28 |
36 |
99.9% |
35–38 |
34–38 |
34–38 |
32–39 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
34 |
99.2% |
33–36 |
32–36 |
32–36 |
31–37 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
30 |
3% |
28–31 |
28–31 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
29 |
0.5% |
27–30 |
27–31 |
26–31 |
25–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
23–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–20 |
16–20 |
16–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
13 |
0% |
12–15 |
12–15 |
12–15 |
11–16 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
34 |
6% |
98% |
|
35 |
11% |
92% |
|
36 |
31% |
81% |
|
37 |
34% |
50% |
Median |
38 |
13% |
15% |
|
39 |
2% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
6% |
99.2% |
Majority |
33 |
16% |
93% |
Last Result |
34 |
32% |
78% |
|
35 |
26% |
45% |
Median |
36 |
18% |
20% |
|
37 |
2% |
2% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
15% |
97% |
|
29 |
27% |
82% |
|
30 |
27% |
55% |
Median |
31 |
25% |
28% |
|
32 |
2% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
2% |
98% |
|
27 |
10% |
97% |
|
28 |
32% |
87% |
|
29 |
25% |
55% |
Median |
30 |
24% |
29% |
|
31 |
5% |
6% |
|
32 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
11% |
98% |
|
26 |
26% |
87% |
|
27 |
38% |
61% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
24% |
|
29 |
6% |
7% |
|
30 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
15% |
97% |
|
26 |
35% |
82% |
Median |
27 |
32% |
47% |
|
28 |
10% |
15% |
|
29 |
5% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
24 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
25 |
21% |
96% |
|
26 |
32% |
76% |
Median |
27 |
32% |
44% |
|
28 |
9% |
12% |
|
29 |
3% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
99.7% |
|
24 |
8% |
98.7% |
|
25 |
24% |
91% |
|
26 |
31% |
67% |
Last Result |
27 |
16% |
36% |
Median |
28 |
19% |
20% |
|
29 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
12% |
98% |
|
21 |
31% |
85% |
|
22 |
41% |
55% |
Median |
23 |
11% |
14% |
|
24 |
2% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
10% |
98.7% |
|
21 |
32% |
89% |
Median |
22 |
35% |
57% |
|
23 |
14% |
22% |
Last Result |
24 |
6% |
7% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
9% |
99.2% |
|
21 |
21% |
90% |
|
22 |
36% |
69% |
Median |
23 |
21% |
33% |
|
24 |
10% |
12% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.7% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
20 |
22% |
95% |
|
21 |
28% |
74% |
|
22 |
22% |
45% |
Median |
23 |
21% |
23% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
19 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
26% |
95% |
Last Result |
21 |
30% |
69% |
Median |
22 |
31% |
39% |
|
23 |
7% |
8% |
|
24 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
15% |
97% |
|
18 |
50% |
83% |
Median |
19 |
24% |
32% |
|
20 |
8% |
9% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
7% |
98.7% |
|
16 |
26% |
92% |
|
17 |
46% |
66% |
Median |
18 |
14% |
19% |
Last Result |
19 |
5% |
5% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
2% |
100% |
|
14 |
9% |
98% |
|
15 |
23% |
89% |
|
16 |
38% |
66% |
Median |
17 |
21% |
28% |
Last Result |
18 |
7% |
7% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
21% |
98% |
|
13 |
33% |
76% |
|
14 |
33% |
44% |
Median |
15 |
10% |
11% |
|
16 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Zenter
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 10–14 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1219
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.01%