Opinion Poll by Zenter, 10–14 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 19.7% 18.3–21.2% 17.9–21.6% 17.6–22.0% 16.9–22.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 18.5% 17.2–20.0% 16.8–20.5% 16.5–20.8% 15.8–21.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.6% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.2% 10.8–14.5% 10.3–15.2%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 11.6% 10.5–12.9% 10.2–13.3% 10.0–13.6% 9.5–14.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.3% 10.2–12.6% 9.9–12.9% 9.7–13.2% 9.2–13.8%
Píratar 9.2% 10.9% 9.8–12.1% 9.5–12.5% 9.3–12.8% 8.8–13.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.3% 6.4–8.4% 6.2–8.6% 6.0–8.9% 5.6–9.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.7%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.6% 2.2–3.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.8–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 13 13–15 12–15 12–15 11–16
Samfylkingin 7 13 12–14 11–14 11–14 11–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 7–10 7–10 7–10 7–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–10
Viðreisn 4 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–9
Píratar 6 7 7–8 6–8 6–9 6–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.6% 100%  
12 8% 99.4%  
13 48% 92% Median
14 32% 44%  
15 11% 12%  
16 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 100%  
11 7% 99.7%  
12 28% 93%  
13 40% 64% Median
14 22% 24%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 14% 99.8%  
8 32% 86%  
9 38% 54% Median
10 16% 16%  
11 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 15% 97% Last Result
8 45% 83% Median
9 30% 38%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 4% 100%  
7 41% 96%  
8 43% 55% Median
9 12% 12%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 9% 99.8% Last Result
7 52% 91% Median
8 35% 39%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100%  
4 31% 99.4%  
5 63% 68% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 5% 6%  
4 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar 28 36 99.9% 35–38 34–38 34–38 32–39
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 34 99.2% 33–36 32–36 32–36 31–37
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 30 3% 28–31 28–31 27–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 29 0.5% 27–30 27–31 26–31 25–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 27 0% 25–28 25–29 25–29 24–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 26 0% 25–28 25–29 24–29 24–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 25–28 25–28 24–29 23–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–28 23–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 20–23 20–24 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 20–23 20–24 20–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 20–24 20–24 20–24 19–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 21 0% 20–23 20–23 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 20–22 19–23 19–23 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 18 0% 17–19 17–20 16–20 16–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 17 0% 16–18 15–19 15–19 14–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 12–15 12–15 12–15 11–16

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9% Majority
33 2% 99.3%  
34 6% 98%  
35 11% 92%  
36 31% 81%  
37 34% 50% Median
38 13% 15%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.9%  
32 6% 99.2% Majority
33 16% 93% Last Result
34 32% 78%  
35 26% 45% Median
36 18% 20%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0.5% 100%  
27 3% 99.4%  
28 15% 97%  
29 27% 82%  
30 27% 55% Median
31 25% 28%  
32 2% 3% Majority
33 0.6% 0.6%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100% Last Result
25 1.5% 99.9%  
26 2% 98%  
27 10% 97%  
28 32% 87%  
29 25% 55% Median
30 24% 29%  
31 5% 6%  
32 0.5% 0.5% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 2% 99.8%  
25 11% 98%  
26 26% 87%  
27 38% 61% Median
28 17% 24%  
29 6% 7%  
30 1.0% 1.0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 3% 99.7%  
25 15% 97%  
26 35% 82% Median
27 32% 47%  
28 10% 15%  
29 5% 5%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
24 3% 99.4%  
25 21% 96%  
26 32% 76% Median
27 32% 44%  
28 9% 12%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.7%  
24 8% 98.7%  
25 24% 91%  
26 31% 67% Last Result
27 16% 36% Median
28 19% 20%  
29 0.7% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 12% 98%  
21 31% 85%  
22 41% 55% Median
23 11% 14%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.9%  
20 10% 98.7%  
21 32% 89% Median
22 35% 57%  
23 14% 22% Last Result
24 6% 7%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 9% 99.2%  
21 21% 90%  
22 36% 69% Median
23 21% 33%  
24 10% 12%  
25 1.2% 1.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100% Last Result
19 4% 99.2%  
20 22% 95%  
21 28% 74%  
22 22% 45% Median
23 21% 23%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 5% 99.7%  
20 26% 95% Last Result
21 30% 69% Median
22 31% 39%  
23 7% 8%  
24 0.8% 0.8%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 15% 97%  
18 50% 83% Median
19 24% 32%  
20 8% 9%  
21 0.6% 0.6%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.9%  
15 7% 98.7%  
16 26% 92%  
17 46% 66% Median
18 14% 19% Last Result
19 5% 5%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 9% 98%  
15 23% 89%  
16 38% 66% Median
17 21% 28% Last Result
18 7% 7%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 21% 98%  
13 33% 76%  
14 33% 44% Median
15 10% 11%  
16 0.7% 0.7%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations