Opinion Poll by MMR, 21–25 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.0–23.3% 18.6–23.8% 17.9–24.6%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.3% 13.9–16.9% 13.5–17.3% 13.2–17.7% 12.6–18.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.7% 8.2–12.0% 7.7–12.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.7% 8.2–12.0% 7.7–12.7%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.2–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.4%
Píratar 9.2% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.3–10.9% 6.8–11.6%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.5–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 13–15 12–16 12–17
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–12
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 9–10 9–10 8–11 7–12
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–8 5–8 5–9 5–10
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Píratar 6 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 3% 99.7%  
13 35% 97%  
14 32% 62% Median
15 26% 30%  
16 3% 4% Last Result
17 0.7% 0.8%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 3% 99.9%  
9 26% 97%  
10 53% 71% Median
11 16% 18%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
8 3% 99.1%  
9 14% 96%  
10 79% 82% Median
11 2% 3%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 18% 99.8%  
6 45% 82% Median
7 23% 37%  
8 11% 14% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 1.4% 1.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100% Last Result
5 11% 99.8%  
6 50% 89% Median
7 36% 39%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 18% 99.5%  
6 55% 82% Median
7 25% 27%  
8 1.3% 1.4%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 35% 97%  
6 54% 62% Last Result, Median
7 8% 8%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 23% 99.5% Last Result
5 58% 76% Median
6 17% 18%  
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 33 32 75% 31–33 31–34 30–34 29–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 11% 28–32 28–32 28–32 27–33
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 28 28 0.1% 26–30 26–30 26–30 25–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 24–30
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 26 0% 24–27 24–27 23–28 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 22–25 22–25 22–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–26 21–27
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 22 0% 21–24 21–24 20–25 19–26
Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 22 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 19–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 22 0% 20–23 20–23 19–24 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 20 0% 19–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–22 19–22 18–22 17–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–18 13–19
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–17 15–17 14–17 13–18
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 12 0% 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 12 0% 11–13 10–13 10–13 9–14

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.9%  
30 2% 98.6%  
31 22% 96%  
32 41% 75% Median, Majority
33 23% 33% Last Result
34 8% 10%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.0% 99.9%  
28 10% 99.0%  
29 18% 89%  
30 32% 71% Median
31 28% 39% Last Result
32 9% 11% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 9% 98%  
27 25% 89%  
28 35% 64% Last Result, Median
29 17% 29%  
30 11% 12%  
31 0.7% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 5% 99.8%  
25 22% 95%  
26 30% 73% Median
27 21% 43%  
28 17% 22%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.8% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 3% 99.7%  
24 8% 97%  
25 27% 89% Last Result
26 38% 62% Median
27 20% 25%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.6% 0.6%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 10% 98%  
23 30% 88% Last Result
24 32% 58% Median
25 23% 26%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.9%  
22 8% 98.6%  
23 34% 91% Last Result
24 28% 56% Median
25 23% 28%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.0% 100%  
20 2% 99.0%  
21 19% 97%  
22 38% 78% Median
23 26% 40%  
24 9% 14%  
25 4% 5%  
26 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.9%  
20 1.4% 99.4%  
21 22% 98%  
22 37% 76% Median
23 26% 39%  
24 11% 13%  
25 1.5% 2%  
26 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 3% 99.8%  
20 10% 97%  
21 34% 87%  
22 28% 52% Median
23 22% 25%  
24 2% 3% Last Result
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 9% 99.8%  
19 18% 91%  
20 29% 73% Median
21 27% 43%  
22 12% 17%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 7% 99.4%  
19 24% 92%  
20 34% 69% Median
21 29% 35%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.9% 1.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 2% 99.4%  
19 22% 97%  
20 37% 75% Last Result, Median
21 27% 38%  
22 9% 11%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.9% 100%  
14 4% 99.1%  
15 24% 95%  
16 45% 71% Median
17 23% 27%  
18 3% 4% Last Result
19 0.7% 0.7%  
20 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 2% 98%  
15 26% 96%  
16 44% 69% Median
17 23% 26%  
18 2% 2% Last Result
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.0% 100%  
11 20% 99.0%  
12 34% 79% Median
13 27% 45%  
14 13% 18%  
15 4% 5%  
16 1.2% 1.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.6% 100%  
10 9% 99.4%  
11 31% 91%  
12 35% 60% Median
13 23% 24%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations