Opinion Poll by MMR, 21–25 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.1% |
19.5–22.8% |
19.0–23.3% |
18.6–23.8% |
17.9–24.6% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.3% |
13.9–16.9% |
13.5–17.3% |
13.2–17.7% |
12.6–18.5% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
13.5% |
12.2–15.0% |
11.8–15.4% |
11.5–15.8% |
10.9–16.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
10.0% |
8.8–11.3% |
8.5–11.7% |
8.2–12.0% |
7.7–12.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.0% |
8.8–11.3% |
8.5–11.7% |
8.2–12.0% |
7.7–12.7% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
9.7% |
8.6–11.0% |
8.2–11.4% |
8.0–11.7% |
7.5–12.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
9.0% |
7.9–10.2% |
7.6–10.6% |
7.3–10.9% |
6.8–11.6% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
8.0% |
7.0–9.3% |
6.7–9.6% |
6.5–9.9% |
6.0–10.5% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
2.6% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.9–3.6% |
1.8–3.8% |
1.5–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
13 |
35% |
97% |
|
14 |
32% |
62% |
Median |
15 |
26% |
30% |
|
16 |
3% |
4% |
Last Result |
17 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
26% |
97% |
|
10 |
53% |
71% |
Median |
11 |
16% |
18% |
|
12 |
2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
8 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
9 |
14% |
96% |
|
10 |
79% |
82% |
Median |
11 |
2% |
3% |
|
12 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
18% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
45% |
82% |
Median |
7 |
23% |
37% |
|
8 |
11% |
14% |
Last Result |
9 |
2% |
3% |
|
10 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
11% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
50% |
89% |
Median |
7 |
36% |
39% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
5 |
18% |
99.5% |
|
6 |
55% |
82% |
Median |
7 |
25% |
27% |
|
8 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
3% |
100% |
|
5 |
35% |
97% |
|
6 |
54% |
62% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
8% |
8% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
23% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
5 |
58% |
76% |
Median |
6 |
17% |
18% |
|
7 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
33 |
32 |
75% |
31–33 |
31–34 |
30–34 |
29–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
11% |
28–32 |
28–32 |
28–32 |
27–33 |
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
28 |
28 |
0.1% |
26–30 |
26–30 |
26–30 |
25–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
24–30 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–28 |
23–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
19–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
17–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–22 |
17–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–17 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
14–17 |
13–18 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
12 |
0% |
11–14 |
11–14 |
11–15 |
10–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
12 |
0% |
11–13 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
9–14 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
31 |
22% |
96% |
|
32 |
41% |
75% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
23% |
33% |
Last Result |
34 |
8% |
10% |
|
35 |
2% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
10% |
99.0% |
|
29 |
18% |
89% |
|
30 |
32% |
71% |
Median |
31 |
28% |
39% |
Last Result |
32 |
9% |
11% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
9% |
98% |
|
27 |
25% |
89% |
|
28 |
35% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
29 |
17% |
29% |
|
30 |
11% |
12% |
|
31 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
22% |
95% |
|
26 |
30% |
73% |
Median |
27 |
21% |
43% |
|
28 |
17% |
22% |
|
29 |
4% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
24 |
8% |
97% |
|
25 |
27% |
89% |
Last Result |
26 |
38% |
62% |
Median |
27 |
20% |
25% |
|
28 |
4% |
5% |
|
29 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
10% |
98% |
|
23 |
30% |
88% |
Last Result |
24 |
32% |
58% |
Median |
25 |
23% |
26% |
|
26 |
2% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
8% |
98.6% |
|
23 |
34% |
91% |
Last Result |
24 |
28% |
56% |
Median |
25 |
23% |
28% |
|
26 |
4% |
5% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
21 |
19% |
97% |
|
22 |
38% |
78% |
Median |
23 |
26% |
40% |
|
24 |
9% |
14% |
|
25 |
4% |
5% |
|
26 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
21 |
22% |
98% |
|
22 |
37% |
76% |
Median |
23 |
26% |
39% |
|
24 |
11% |
13% |
|
25 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
10% |
97% |
|
21 |
34% |
87% |
|
22 |
28% |
52% |
Median |
23 |
22% |
25% |
|
24 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
9% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
18% |
91% |
|
20 |
29% |
73% |
Median |
21 |
27% |
43% |
|
22 |
12% |
17% |
|
23 |
4% |
5% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
7% |
99.4% |
|
19 |
24% |
92% |
|
20 |
34% |
69% |
Median |
21 |
29% |
35% |
|
22 |
4% |
5% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
19 |
22% |
97% |
|
20 |
37% |
75% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
27% |
38% |
|
22 |
9% |
11% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
14 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
15 |
24% |
95% |
|
16 |
45% |
71% |
Median |
17 |
23% |
27% |
|
18 |
3% |
4% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
2% |
98% |
|
15 |
26% |
96% |
|
16 |
44% |
69% |
Median |
17 |
23% |
26% |
|
18 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
11 |
20% |
99.0% |
|
12 |
34% |
79% |
Median |
13 |
27% |
45% |
|
14 |
13% |
18% |
|
15 |
4% |
5% |
|
16 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
10 |
9% |
99.4% |
|
11 |
31% |
91% |
|
12 |
35% |
60% |
Median |
13 |
23% |
24% |
|
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 21–25 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 972
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.42%