Opinion Poll by Gallup, 30 September–27 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.8% 22.1–23.5% 21.8–23.7% 21.7–23.9% 21.3–24.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 17.4% 16.7–18.0% 16.5–18.2% 16.4–18.4% 16.1–18.7%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.4% 12.9–14.1% 12.7–14.2% 12.6–14.4% 12.3–14.7%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 11.5% 11.0–12.1% 10.8–12.3% 10.7–12.4% 10.5–12.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.3% 9.8–10.9% 9.7–11.1% 9.5–11.2% 9.3–11.5%
Píratar 9.2% 9.0% 8.6–9.6% 8.4–9.7% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.2% 7.8–8.7% 7.6–8.9% 7.5–9.0% 7.3–9.2%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.6% 4.3–5.0% 4.2–5.1% 4.1–5.2% 3.9–5.4%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 2.6% 2.3–2.9% 2.3–3.0% 2.2–3.1% 2.1–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 15–16 15–16 14–16 14–17
Samfylkingin 7 12 11–12 11–12 10–12 10–13
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 9 8–9 8–9 7–9 7–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Píratar 6 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 4% 100%  
15 66% 96% Median
16 30% 30% Last Result
17 0.8% 0.8%  
18 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 4% 100%  
11 45% 96%  
12 50% 50% Median
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 56% 98% Median
10 41% 41%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 3% 99.8% Last Result
8 12% 97%  
9 85% 85% Median
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 24% 100%  
7 76% 76% Median
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 24% 100%  
6 75% 76% Last Result, Median
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 78% 98% Median
6 21% 21%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 35 100% 34–35 33–36 33–36 33–37
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar 28 34 94% 32–34 31–34 31–34 31–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 0.7% 29–31 29–31 29–31 28–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 0.1% 29–30 28–30 28–31 28–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 30 0% 29–30 28–30 28–31 27–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 26–27 25–28 25–28 25–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 25–27 25–27 24–28 24–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 26–27 25–27 24–28 24–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 24–26 24–26 24–26 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 22–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 23–24 22–24 22–25 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 22–23 21–23 21–23 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 20–21 20–22 20–22 19–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 21 0% 20–21 20–22 19–22 19–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 18 0% 18–19 17–19 17–19 16–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–16 13–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 14–16 14–16 13–16 13–16

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100% Majority
33 8% 99.7% Last Result
34 6% 92%  
35 76% 85% Median
36 8% 10%  
37 1.5% 1.5%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 100%  
31 5% 99.7%  
32 7% 94% Majority
33 30% 87%  
34 54% 57% Median
35 2% 2%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 1.0% 100%  
29 46% 99.0% Median
30 19% 53%  
31 33% 34%  
32 0.7% 0.7% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 6% 99.5%  
29 60% 93% Median
30 30% 34%  
31 3% 3% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0% 100%  
27 0.6% 100%  
28 9% 99.4%  
29 15% 91%  
30 72% 75% Median
31 3% 3%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 5% 100%  
26 25% 95%  
27 61% 70% Median
28 9% 9%  
29 0.6% 0.6%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 4% 100%  
25 8% 96%  
26 69% 88% Last Result, Median
27 16% 19%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 4% 100% Last Result
25 6% 96%  
26 19% 91%  
27 67% 71% Median
28 5% 5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.1% 100%  
24 52% 98.9% Median
25 25% 47%  
26 21% 21%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.2% 99.9%  
23 15% 98.8% Last Result
24 56% 84% Median
25 27% 28%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.7%  
22 8% 99.5%  
23 45% 92% Median
24 43% 46%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100% Last Result
21 7% 98%  
22 77% 91% Median
23 14% 14%  
24 0.6% 0.6%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 55% 98% Median
21 39% 44%  
22 5% 5%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100% Last Result
19 4% 100%  
20 11% 96%  
21 80% 85% Median
22 5% 5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.7%  
17 7% 98%  
18 59% 91% Last Result, Median
19 32% 32%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.7% 100%  
14 15% 99.3%  
15 52% 84% Median
16 33% 33%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 3% 100%  
14 48% 97% Median
15 38% 50%  
16 12% 12%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations