Opinion Poll by Gallup, 30 September–27 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.8% |
22.1–23.5% |
21.8–23.7% |
21.7–23.9% |
21.3–24.3% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
17.4% |
16.7–18.0% |
16.5–18.2% |
16.4–18.4% |
16.1–18.7% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.4% |
12.9–14.1% |
12.7–14.2% |
12.6–14.4% |
12.3–14.7% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
11.5% |
11.0–12.1% |
10.8–12.3% |
10.7–12.4% |
10.5–12.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.3% |
9.8–10.9% |
9.7–11.1% |
9.5–11.2% |
9.3–11.5% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
9.0% |
8.6–9.6% |
8.4–9.7% |
8.3–9.8% |
8.1–10.1% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.2% |
7.8–8.7% |
7.6–8.9% |
7.5–9.0% |
7.3–9.2% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.6% |
4.3–5.0% |
4.2–5.1% |
4.1–5.2% |
3.9–5.4% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
2.6% |
2.3–2.9% |
2.3–3.0% |
2.2–3.1% |
2.1–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
4% |
100% |
|
15 |
66% |
96% |
Median |
16 |
30% |
30% |
Last Result |
17 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
4% |
100% |
|
11 |
45% |
96% |
|
12 |
50% |
50% |
Median |
13 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
2% |
100% |
|
9 |
56% |
98% |
Median |
10 |
41% |
41% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
8 |
12% |
97% |
|
9 |
85% |
85% |
Median |
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
24% |
100% |
|
7 |
76% |
76% |
Median |
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
24% |
100% |
|
6 |
75% |
76% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
78% |
98% |
Median |
6 |
21% |
21% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
10% |
|
2 |
0% |
10% |
|
3 |
10% |
10% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
35 |
100% |
34–35 |
33–36 |
33–36 |
33–37 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar |
28 |
34 |
94% |
32–34 |
31–34 |
31–34 |
31–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
30 |
0.7% |
29–31 |
29–31 |
29–31 |
28–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0.1% |
29–30 |
28–30 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
30 |
0% |
29–30 |
28–30 |
28–31 |
27–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0% |
26–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–27 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
27 |
0% |
26–27 |
25–27 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–26 |
23–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
23–24 |
22–24 |
22–25 |
21–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
22–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
20–21 |
20–22 |
20–22 |
19–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
21 |
0% |
20–21 |
20–22 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
18 |
0% |
18–19 |
17–19 |
17–19 |
16–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–16 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
14 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.3% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
8% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
34 |
6% |
92% |
|
35 |
76% |
85% |
Median |
36 |
8% |
10% |
|
37 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
31 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
7% |
94% |
Majority |
33 |
30% |
87% |
|
34 |
54% |
57% |
Median |
35 |
2% |
2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
29 |
46% |
99.0% |
Median |
30 |
19% |
53% |
|
31 |
33% |
34% |
|
32 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
6% |
99.5% |
|
29 |
60% |
93% |
Median |
30 |
30% |
34% |
|
31 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
28 |
9% |
99.4% |
|
29 |
15% |
91% |
|
30 |
72% |
75% |
Median |
31 |
3% |
3% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
5% |
100% |
|
26 |
25% |
95% |
|
27 |
61% |
70% |
Median |
28 |
9% |
9% |
|
29 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
4% |
100% |
|
25 |
8% |
96% |
|
26 |
69% |
88% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
16% |
19% |
|
28 |
3% |
3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
6% |
96% |
|
26 |
19% |
91% |
|
27 |
67% |
71% |
Median |
28 |
5% |
5% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
52% |
98.9% |
Median |
25 |
25% |
47% |
|
26 |
21% |
21% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
15% |
98.8% |
Last Result |
24 |
56% |
84% |
Median |
25 |
27% |
28% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
8% |
99.5% |
|
23 |
45% |
92% |
Median |
24 |
43% |
46% |
|
25 |
3% |
3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
7% |
98% |
|
22 |
77% |
91% |
Median |
23 |
14% |
14% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
2% |
100% |
|
20 |
55% |
98% |
Median |
21 |
39% |
44% |
|
22 |
5% |
5% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
4% |
100% |
|
20 |
11% |
96% |
|
21 |
80% |
85% |
Median |
22 |
5% |
5% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
7% |
98% |
|
18 |
59% |
91% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
32% |
32% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
14 |
15% |
99.3% |
|
15 |
52% |
84% |
Median |
16 |
33% |
33% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
3% |
100% |
|
14 |
48% |
97% |
Median |
15 |
38% |
50% |
|
16 |
12% |
12% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30 September–27 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 5242
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.53%