Opinion Poll by MMR, 15–22 November 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
18.1% |
16.6–19.7% |
16.2–20.1% |
15.9–20.5% |
15.2–21.3% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
16.8% |
15.4–18.3% |
15.0–18.8% |
14.6–19.1% |
14.0–19.9% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.2% |
11.9–14.6% |
11.6–15.0% |
11.3–15.4% |
10.7–16.1% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.7% |
9.6–12.1% |
9.3–12.4% |
9.0–12.8% |
8.5–13.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.6% |
9.4–11.9% |
9.1–12.2% |
8.8–12.6% |
8.3–13.2% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.7% |
8.6–11.0% |
8.3–11.3% |
8.1–11.6% |
7.6–12.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.4% |
8.4–10.7% |
8.1–11.0% |
7.8–11.3% |
7.3–12.0% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
6.3% |
5.5–7.4% |
5.2–7.7% |
5.0–7.9% |
4.6–8.5% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.3–4.0% |
2.1–4.2% |
1.9–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
23% |
98% |
|
12 |
20% |
75% |
|
13 |
50% |
55% |
Median |
14 |
5% |
5% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
21% |
100% |
|
11 |
33% |
79% |
Median |
12 |
24% |
47% |
|
13 |
8% |
22% |
|
14 |
13% |
14% |
|
15 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
6% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
8 |
34% |
94% |
|
9 |
44% |
60% |
Median |
10 |
16% |
16% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
18% |
98% |
Last Result |
7 |
53% |
80% |
Median |
8 |
26% |
28% |
|
9 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
27% |
98% |
|
7 |
57% |
71% |
Median |
8 |
12% |
14% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
10% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
56% |
90% |
Median |
7 |
32% |
35% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
5 |
15% |
99.5% |
|
6 |
49% |
84% |
Median |
7 |
26% |
35% |
|
8 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
97% |
|
2 |
0% |
97% |
|
3 |
20% |
97% |
|
4 |
64% |
77% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
13% |
13% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
33 |
96% |
32–35 |
32–36 |
31–36 |
30–37 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
14% |
29–32 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
29 |
2% |
27–30 |
27–31 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
27 |
0.2% |
26–29 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
24–31 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
21 |
0% |
19–23 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
17–21 |
17–21 |
17–22 |
16–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–21 |
16–21 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–20 |
16–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–18 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
12–15 |
12–16 |
11–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
13 |
0% |
12–15 |
12–15 |
11–15 |
10–16 |
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
31 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
32 |
21% |
96% |
Majority |
33 |
32% |
75% |
Last Result, Median |
34 |
20% |
43% |
|
35 |
14% |
23% |
|
36 |
7% |
9% |
|
37 |
2% |
2% |
|
38 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
29 |
28% |
95% |
|
30 |
24% |
68% |
Median |
31 |
29% |
43% |
Last Result |
32 |
8% |
14% |
Majority |
33 |
5% |
6% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
27 |
9% |
95% |
|
28 |
20% |
87% |
Last Result |
29 |
34% |
67% |
Median |
30 |
24% |
33% |
|
31 |
7% |
9% |
|
32 |
1.3% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
4% |
98.7% |
Last Result |
26 |
30% |
95% |
|
27 |
31% |
64% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
34% |
|
29 |
9% |
16% |
|
30 |
4% |
8% |
|
31 |
3% |
3% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
18% |
98% |
|
24 |
24% |
80% |
Median |
25 |
26% |
55% |
|
26 |
19% |
30% |
Last Result |
27 |
8% |
11% |
|
28 |
2% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
5% |
98.9% |
|
24 |
16% |
94% |
|
25 |
28% |
78% |
|
26 |
30% |
50% |
Median |
27 |
15% |
20% |
|
28 |
4% |
5% |
|
29 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
10% |
98% |
|
23 |
29% |
89% |
Last Result |
24 |
28% |
60% |
Median |
25 |
19% |
32% |
|
26 |
9% |
13% |
|
27 |
3% |
4% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
21 |
9% |
95% |
|
22 |
33% |
86% |
|
23 |
29% |
53% |
Median |
24 |
17% |
24% |
Last Result |
25 |
6% |
6% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
20 |
8% |
97% |
|
21 |
29% |
89% |
|
22 |
35% |
61% |
Median |
23 |
16% |
26% |
|
24 |
8% |
10% |
|
25 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
9% |
98.7% |
|
20 |
20% |
90% |
|
21 |
35% |
70% |
|
22 |
25% |
35% |
Median |
23 |
9% |
10% |
Last Result |
24 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
20% |
98% |
|
18 |
39% |
78% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
19% |
39% |
|
20 |
9% |
20% |
|
21 |
7% |
10% |
|
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
6% |
99.2% |
|
18 |
23% |
93% |
|
19 |
25% |
70% |
|
20 |
36% |
45% |
Median |
21 |
8% |
9% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
16% |
97% |
|
18 |
23% |
81% |
|
19 |
35% |
58% |
Median |
20 |
19% |
23% |
Last Result |
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
13% |
96% |
|
18 |
23% |
83% |
|
19 |
38% |
60% |
Median |
20 |
19% |
22% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
10% |
98% |
|
15 |
37% |
88% |
|
16 |
34% |
50% |
Median |
17 |
14% |
17% |
|
18 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
2% |
100% |
|
12 |
8% |
98% |
|
13 |
23% |
91% |
|
14 |
37% |
68% |
Median |
15 |
27% |
31% |
|
16 |
3% |
4% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
11 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
12 |
24% |
96% |
|
13 |
39% |
71% |
Median |
14 |
19% |
32% |
|
15 |
12% |
13% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 15–22 November 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1061
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.34%