Opinion Poll by MMR, 15–22 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.1% 15.9–20.5% 15.2–21.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 16.8% 15.4–18.3% 15.0–18.8% 14.6–19.1% 14.0–19.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.2% 11.9–14.6% 11.6–15.0% 11.3–15.4% 10.7–16.1%
Píratar 9.2% 10.7% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.4% 9.0–12.8% 8.5–13.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.2% 8.8–12.6% 8.3–13.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.3% 8.1–11.6% 7.6–12.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.4% 8.4–10.7% 8.1–11.0% 7.8–11.3% 7.3–12.0%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.3% 5.5–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–7.9% 4.6–8.5%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 13 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–14
Miðflokkurinn 7 11 10–14 10–14 10–14 10–15
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–5 3–5 0–5 0–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 23% 98%  
12 20% 75%  
13 50% 55% Median
14 5% 5%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 21% 100%  
11 33% 79% Median
12 24% 47%  
13 8% 22%  
14 13% 14%  
15 1.0% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 6% 99.9% Last Result
8 34% 94%  
9 44% 60% Median
10 16% 16%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 18% 98% Last Result
7 53% 80% Median
8 26% 28%  
9 1.4% 1.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 27% 98%  
7 57% 71% Median
8 12% 14%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 10% 99.9%  
6 56% 90% Median
7 32% 35%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 15% 99.5%  
6 49% 84% Median
7 26% 35%  
8 9% 9% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 20% 97%  
4 64% 77% Last Result, Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 33 96% 32–35 32–36 31–36 30–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 14% 29–32 29–33 28–33 27–34
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 29 2% 27–30 27–31 26–31 25–32
Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 27 0.2% 26–29 25–30 25–31 24–31
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 23–27 23–27 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 26 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 22–26 22–26 22–27 21–28
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 19–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 21 0% 19–23 19–23 19–23 18–24
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–21 17–21 17–22 16–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 19 0% 18–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 19 0% 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 19 0% 17–20 17–20 16–20 16–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 14–17 14–17 14–17 13–18
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 14 0% 13–15 12–15 12–16 11–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 12–15 12–15 11–15 10–16

Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.5% 100%  
31 3% 99.4%  
32 21% 96% Majority
33 32% 75% Last Result, Median
34 20% 43%  
35 14% 23%  
36 7% 9%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.9%  
28 4% 99.1%  
29 28% 95%  
30 24% 68% Median
31 29% 43% Last Result
32 8% 14% Majority
33 5% 6%  
34 0.9% 1.0%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.7% 100%  
26 4% 99.2%  
27 9% 95%  
28 20% 87% Last Result
29 34% 67% Median
30 24% 33%  
31 7% 9%  
32 1.3% 2% Majority
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.9%  
25 4% 98.7% Last Result
26 30% 95%  
27 31% 64% Median
28 17% 34%  
29 9% 16%  
30 4% 8%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 18% 98%  
24 24% 80% Median
25 26% 55%  
26 19% 30% Last Result
27 8% 11%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.9% 1.0%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.0% 99.9%  
23 5% 98.9%  
24 16% 94%  
25 28% 78%  
26 30% 50% Median
27 15% 20%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.6% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 10% 98%  
23 29% 89% Last Result
24 28% 60% Median
25 19% 32%  
26 9% 13%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.7% 0.8%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.9% 100%  
20 4% 99.0%  
21 9% 95%  
22 33% 86%  
23 29% 53% Median
24 17% 24% Last Result
25 6% 6%  
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.6% 100%  
19 2% 99.4%  
20 8% 97%  
21 29% 89%  
22 35% 61% Median
23 16% 26%  
24 8% 10%  
25 1.4% 1.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.2% 99.9%  
19 9% 98.7%  
20 20% 90%  
21 35% 70%  
22 25% 35% Median
23 9% 10% Last Result
24 1.0% 1.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 20% 98%  
18 39% 78% Last Result, Median
19 19% 39%  
20 9% 20%  
21 7% 10%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.9%  
17 6% 99.2%  
18 23% 93%  
19 25% 70%  
20 36% 45% Median
21 8% 9%  
22 1.1% 1.3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 16% 97%  
18 23% 81%  
19 35% 58% Median
20 19% 23% Last Result
21 3% 3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 4% 99.7%  
17 13% 96%  
18 23% 83%  
19 38% 60% Median
20 19% 22%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 10% 98%  
15 37% 88%  
16 34% 50% Median
17 14% 17%  
18 2% 2% Last Result
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 8% 98%  
13 23% 91%  
14 37% 68% Median
15 27% 31%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 4% 99.5%  
12 24% 96%  
13 39% 71% Median
14 19% 32%  
15 12% 13%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations