Opinion Poll by Gallup, 28 October–1 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.7% |
21.1–22.4% |
20.9–22.6% |
20.7–22.8% |
20.4–23.1% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.8% |
15.2–16.4% |
15.1–16.6% |
15.0–16.8% |
14.7–17.0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.6% |
13.1–14.2% |
12.9–14.3% |
12.8–14.5% |
12.5–14.8% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
12.9% |
12.4–13.5% |
12.2–13.6% |
12.1–13.8% |
11.9–14.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.8% |
10.3–11.3% |
10.2–11.5% |
10.1–11.6% |
9.8–11.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.3% |
9.8–10.8% |
9.7–11.0% |
9.6–11.1% |
9.4–11.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.8% |
7.4–8.3% |
7.3–8.4% |
7.2–8.5% |
7.0–8.7% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.9% |
3.6–4.2% |
3.5–4.3% |
3.4–4.4% |
3.3–4.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.7–3.3% |
2.7–3.4% |
2.6–3.4% |
2.5–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
22% |
100% |
|
15 |
70% |
78% |
Median |
16 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
20% |
100% |
|
11 |
79% |
80% |
Median |
12 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
2% |
100% |
|
9 |
46% |
98% |
|
10 |
52% |
52% |
Median |
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
4% |
100% |
|
9 |
92% |
96% |
Median |
10 |
3% |
3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
7 |
93% |
99.7% |
Median |
8 |
7% |
7% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
22% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
78% |
78% |
Median |
8 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
4% |
100% |
|
5 |
93% |
96% |
Median |
6 |
3% |
3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
34 |
100% |
33–35 |
33–35 |
33–35 |
33–35 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar |
28 |
34 |
100% |
33–35 |
33–35 |
33–35 |
33–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
29 |
0% |
29–30 |
29–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
25–26 |
25–26 |
25–27 |
24–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–24 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
24–25 |
24–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
23–24 |
23–24 |
22–24 |
22–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–20 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
19 |
0% |
18–19 |
18–19 |
17–19 |
17–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
16 |
0% |
16–17 |
16–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–15 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
12% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
34 |
48% |
88% |
|
35 |
40% |
40% |
Median |
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
10% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
65% |
90% |
|
35 |
25% |
25% |
Median |
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
25% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
65% |
75% |
Median |
30 |
10% |
10% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
3% |
100% |
|
29 |
59% |
97% |
|
30 |
38% |
38% |
Median |
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
12% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
46% |
88% |
|
30 |
41% |
41% |
Median |
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
15% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
61% |
85% |
|
28 |
24% |
24% |
Median |
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
25 |
34% |
99.3% |
|
26 |
62% |
65% |
Median |
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
46% |
87% |
|
26 |
41% |
41% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
24% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
24 |
66% |
76% |
Median |
25 |
9% |
10% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
4% |
100% |
|
24 |
56% |
96% |
|
25 |
40% |
40% |
Median |
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
3% |
100% |
|
23 |
47% |
97% |
|
24 |
50% |
50% |
Median |
25 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
20% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
66% |
80% |
Median |
23 |
13% |
14% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
23% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
68% |
77% |
Median |
21 |
9% |
9% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
44% |
87% |
|
21 |
42% |
43% |
Median |
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
3% |
100% |
|
18 |
47% |
97% |
Last Result |
19 |
51% |
51% |
Median |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
64% |
96% |
|
17 |
31% |
32% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
3% |
100% |
|
14 |
46% |
97% |
|
15 |
51% |
51% |
Median |
16 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 28 October–1 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 6205
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.64%