Opinion Poll by Gallup, 28 October–1 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.7% 21.1–22.4% 20.9–22.6% 20.7–22.8% 20.4–23.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.8% 15.2–16.4% 15.1–16.6% 15.0–16.8% 14.7–17.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.6% 13.1–14.2% 12.9–14.3% 12.8–14.5% 12.5–14.8%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 12.9% 12.4–13.5% 12.2–13.6% 12.1–13.8% 11.9–14.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.8% 10.3–11.3% 10.2–11.5% 10.1–11.6% 9.8–11.9%
Píratar 9.2% 10.3% 9.8–10.8% 9.7–11.0% 9.6–11.1% 9.4–11.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.8% 7.4–8.3% 7.3–8.4% 7.2–8.5% 7.0–8.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.9% 3.6–4.2% 3.5–4.3% 3.4–4.4% 3.3–4.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.0% 2.7–3.3% 2.7–3.4% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–15 14–16 14–16 14–16
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–11 10–11 10–11 10–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 9 9 9 8–10 8–10
Viðreisn 4 7 7 7–8 7–8 7–8
Píratar 6 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5 5 4–6 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 22% 100%  
15 70% 78% Median
16 8% 8% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 20% 100%  
11 79% 80% Median
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 46% 98%  
10 52% 52% Median
11 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 4% 100%  
9 92% 96% Median
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0.3% 100%  
7 93% 99.7% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 22% 100% Last Result
7 78% 78% Median
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 93% 96% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 34 100% 33–35 33–35 33–35 33–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar 28 34 100% 33–35 33–35 33–35 33–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 0% 28–30 28–30 28–30 28–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 29 0% 29–30 29–30 28–30 28–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 29 0% 28–30 28–30 28–30 28–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 26–28 26–28 26–28 26–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 25–26 25–26 25–27 24–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 24–26 24–26 24–26 24–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–24 23–25 23–25 23–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 24–25 24–25 23–25 23–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–24 23–24 22–24 22–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–23 21–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–20 19–21 19–21 19–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–21 19–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 19 0% 18–19 18–19 17–19 17–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 16 0% 16–17 16–17 15–17 15–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 14–15 14–15 13–15 13–15

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 12% 99.9% Last Result
34 48% 88%  
35 40% 40% Median
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 100% Majority
33 10% 99.8%  
34 65% 90%  
35 25% 25% Median
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 25% 99.8%  
29 65% 75% Median
30 10% 10%  
31 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 3% 100%  
29 59% 97%  
30 38% 38% Median
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 12% 99.9%  
29 46% 88%  
30 41% 41% Median
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.4% 100%  
26 15% 99.6%  
27 61% 85%  
28 24% 24% Median
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.7% 100%  
25 34% 99.3%  
26 62% 65% Median
27 3% 3%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 13% 99.9%  
25 46% 87%  
26 41% 41% Last Result, Median
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 24% 99.9% Last Result
24 66% 76% Median
25 9% 10%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 4% 100%  
24 56% 96%  
25 40% 40% Median
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 3% 100%  
23 47% 97%  
24 50% 50% Median
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100% Last Result
21 20% 99.9%  
22 66% 80% Median
23 13% 14%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 23% 99.8%  
20 68% 77% Median
21 9% 9%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100% Last Result
19 13% 99.9%  
20 44% 87%  
21 42% 43% Median
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 3% 100%  
18 47% 97% Last Result
19 51% 51% Median
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 4% 99.9%  
16 64% 96%  
17 31% 32% Last Result, Median
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 3% 100%  
14 46% 97%  
15 51% 51% Median
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations