Opinion Poll by MMR, 13–19 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 17.0–23.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.4% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.4–16.7% 11.8–17.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.7–17.3%
Píratar 9.2% 11.8% 10.6–13.2% 10.3–13.6% 10.0–14.0% 9.4–14.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.6% 8.3–13.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.8% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.0% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 12–15 12–15 12–16 11–16
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 8–12
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 10–11 9–12 9–12 9–13
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.3% 100%  
12 11% 98.7%  
13 31% 88%  
14 30% 57% Median
15 23% 26%  
16 3% 3% Last Result
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100% Last Result
8 6% 99.6%  
9 27% 94%  
10 53% 66% Median
11 12% 14%  
12 1.3% 1.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.4% 100%  
9 8% 99.6%  
10 75% 92% Median
11 10% 16%  
12 6% 7%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9% Last Result
7 35% 96%  
8 41% 61% Median
9 19% 21%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 1.1% 100%  
6 24% 98.9%  
7 56% 75% Median
8 18% 19%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100%  
6 32% 96%  
7 51% 64% Median
8 12% 13%  
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 11% 99.9%  
5 40% 89% Median
6 44% 49%  
7 5% 5%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 67%  
2 0% 66%  
3 44% 66% Median
4 21% 22%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 7% 7%  
4 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 67% 30–34 30–34 29–35 29–35
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 31 46% 29–33 29–34 28–34 27–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 3% 28–31 27–31 27–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 27 0% 25–28 25–29 24–29 24–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–29 23–29
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 24 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 22–25 22–26 22–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 22–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 21 0% 19–22 19–22 18–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 19–22 19–23 18–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 19 0% 18–21 17–21 17–21 16–22
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 15–19 15–19 15–20
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–19
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 15 0% 13–16 13–16 12–17 12–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 11–13 10–14 10–14 9–15

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 3% 99.7%  
30 7% 97%  
31 22% 90%  
32 31% 67% Median, Majority
33 23% 37% Last Result
34 11% 14%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 4% 99.4% Last Result
29 7% 96%  
30 23% 89%  
31 20% 66%  
32 28% 46% Median, Majority
33 12% 19%  
34 5% 7%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.9%  
27 5% 98.9%  
28 25% 94%  
29 24% 70% Median
30 27% 46%  
31 16% 19% Last Result
32 3% 3% Majority
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 3% 99.6%  
25 13% 97% Last Result
26 29% 84%  
27 36% 55% Median
28 10% 19%  
29 6% 8%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 5% 99.5%  
24 12% 94%  
25 22% 83%  
26 23% 61% Median
27 25% 38%  
28 10% 12%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.8%  
22 8% 98.8%  
23 21% 91%  
24 25% 70% Last Result
25 28% 45% Median
26 12% 17%  
27 4% 5%  
28 1.3% 1.4%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.3% 99.9%  
22 12% 98.6%  
23 24% 86% Last Result
24 31% 63% Median
25 25% 32%  
26 6% 7%  
27 0.7% 0.9%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.9%  
21 6% 99.2%  
22 17% 93%  
23 27% 76% Last Result
24 25% 49% Median
25 20% 24%  
26 4% 4%  
27 0.6% 0.6%  
28 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 5% 99.2%  
21 18% 94%  
22 32% 77% Median
23 32% 45%  
24 10% 13%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 3% 99.7%  
20 10% 96%  
21 20% 86%  
22 33% 66% Median
23 24% 33%  
24 7% 9%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 4% 99.5%  
19 23% 95%  
20 19% 72%  
21 31% 53% Median
22 19% 22%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 19% 97%  
20 21% 78% Last Result
21 31% 57% Median
22 18% 26%  
23 7% 8%  
24 1.0% 1.1%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 8% 98%  
18 22% 90%  
19 27% 69% Median
20 26% 42%  
21 13% 15%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 7% 99.7%  
16 26% 93%  
17 47% 67% Median
18 14% 20% Last Result
19 4% 6%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 3% 99.7%  
15 14% 97%  
16 34% 83%  
17 35% 50% Median
18 10% 14% Last Result
19 4% 4%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 10% 96%  
14 34% 85%  
15 33% 51% Median
16 14% 18%  
17 4% 4% Last Result
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.6% 100%  
10 7% 99.4%  
11 17% 92%  
12 34% 75% Median
13 33% 41%  
14 6% 8%  
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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