Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2 December 2019–1 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.8% |
22.0–23.6% |
21.8–23.9% |
21.6–24.1% |
21.2–24.4% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.0% |
13.3–14.7% |
13.2–14.8% |
13.0–15.0% |
12.7–15.3% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
12.8% |
12.1–13.4% |
12.0–13.6% |
11.8–13.7% |
11.5–14.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
12.1% |
11.5–12.7% |
11.3–12.9% |
11.1–13.0% |
10.9–13.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.3% |
10.8–12.0% |
10.6–12.1% |
10.5–12.3% |
10.2–12.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.7% |
10.2–11.4% |
10.0–11.5% |
9.9–11.7% |
9.6–12.0% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.6% |
8.1–9.2% |
8.0–9.4% |
7.8–9.5% |
7.6–9.8% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.3% |
3.9–4.7% |
3.8–4.8% |
3.8–5.0% |
3.6–5.2% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.3% |
3.0–3.7% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
30% |
98.6% |
|
16 |
59% |
69% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
9% |
9% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
4% |
100% |
|
9 |
72% |
96% |
Median |
10 |
24% |
24% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
8% |
97% |
|
10 |
89% |
89% |
Median |
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
7% |
100% |
|
8 |
83% |
93% |
Median |
9 |
10% |
10% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
44% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
56% |
56% |
Median |
9 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
27% |
100% |
|
7 |
61% |
73% |
Median |
8 |
11% |
11% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
34% |
100% |
|
6 |
66% |
66% |
Median |
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
2% |
|
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
28 |
32 |
53% |
31–33 |
31–33 |
30–34 |
30–34 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
31 |
48% |
31–33 |
31–33 |
30–33 |
30–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
31 |
45% |
30–32 |
30–32 |
29–32 |
29–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
28 |
0% |
28–29 |
27–29 |
27–29 |
27–30 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–27 |
25–27 |
25–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
26 |
0% |
25–26 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–26 |
23–26 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
23 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
22–24 |
21–24 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
22–23 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
21 |
0% |
21–22 |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–23 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–17 |
16–18 |
15–18 |
15–18 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–18 |
15–18 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
14 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–15 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
12 |
0% |
12–13 |
12–14 |
12–14 |
11–14 |
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
2% |
100% |
|
31 |
45% |
97% |
|
32 |
42% |
53% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
8% |
11% |
|
34 |
3% |
3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
48% |
97% |
|
32 |
37% |
48% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
10% |
11% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
3% |
100% |
|
30 |
10% |
97% |
|
31 |
42% |
87% |
Last Result |
32 |
44% |
45% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
6% |
99.5% |
|
28 |
62% |
94% |
|
29 |
30% |
31% |
Median |
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
34% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
26 |
41% |
65% |
Median |
27 |
23% |
24% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.6% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
25 |
33% |
94% |
|
26 |
52% |
61% |
Median |
27 |
9% |
9% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
1.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
24% |
98.7% |
|
25 |
50% |
75% |
Median |
26 |
25% |
25% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
2% |
100% |
|
23 |
48% |
98% |
|
24 |
37% |
50% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
12% |
13% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
29% |
97% |
|
24 |
54% |
68% |
Median |
25 |
14% |
14% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
47% |
98% |
|
23 |
38% |
51% |
Median |
24 |
12% |
12% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
|
21 |
4% |
98% |
|
22 |
57% |
94% |
|
23 |
30% |
37% |
Median |
24 |
7% |
7% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
21 |
43% |
99.0% |
|
22 |
40% |
55% |
Median |
23 |
14% |
15% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
7% |
99.7% |
|
21 |
43% |
93% |
|
22 |
49% |
50% |
Median |
23 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
31% |
96% |
|
17 |
56% |
65% |
Median |
18 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
28% |
100% |
|
16 |
42% |
72% |
Median |
17 |
27% |
30% |
|
18 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
2% |
100% |
|
14 |
59% |
98% |
|
15 |
36% |
39% |
Median |
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
12 |
57% |
99.3% |
|
13 |
35% |
43% |
Median |
14 |
7% |
7% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2 December 2019–1 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 4494
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.67%