Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2 December 2019–1 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.8% 22.0–23.6% 21.8–23.9% 21.6–24.1% 21.2–24.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.0% 13.3–14.7% 13.2–14.8% 13.0–15.0% 12.7–15.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 12.8% 12.1–13.4% 12.0–13.6% 11.8–13.7% 11.5–14.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 12.1% 11.5–12.7% 11.3–12.9% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.4%
Píratar 9.2% 11.3% 10.8–12.0% 10.6–12.1% 10.5–12.3% 10.2–12.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.7% 10.2–11.4% 10.0–11.5% 9.9–11.7% 9.6–12.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.6% 8.1–9.2% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.5% 7.6–9.8%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.3% 3.9–4.7% 3.8–4.8% 3.8–5.0% 3.6–5.2%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.3% 3.0–3.7% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–16 15–17 15–17 14–17
Samfylkingin 7 9 9–10 9–10 8–10 8–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 9–10 9–10 8–10 8–10
Viðreisn 4 8 8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Píratar 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0–3
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.4% 100%  
15 30% 98.6%  
16 59% 69% Last Result, Median
17 9% 9%  
18 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 4% 100%  
9 72% 96% Median
10 24% 24%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 3% 99.9%  
9 8% 97%  
10 89% 89% Median
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 7% 100%  
8 83% 93% Median
9 10% 10%  
10 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 44% 99.9%  
8 56% 56% Median
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 27% 100%  
7 61% 73% Median
8 11% 11%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 34% 100%  
6 66% 66% Median
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 32 53% 31–33 31–33 30–34 30–34
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 31 48% 31–33 31–33 30–33 30–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 31 45% 30–32 30–32 29–32 29–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 28 0% 28–29 27–29 27–29 27–30
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–27 25–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 26 0% 25–26 24–27 24–27 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 24–26 24–26 24–26 23–26
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 23 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–25 23–25 22–25 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 21–24
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 22–23 21–24 21–24 20–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–23 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 21–22 20–22 20–22 20–23
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–17 16–18 15–18 15–18
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–18 15–18
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 14 0% 14–15 14–15 14–16 13–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 12–13 12–14 12–14 11–14

Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 2% 100%  
31 45% 97%  
32 42% 53% Median, Majority
33 8% 11%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 3% 99.9%  
31 48% 97%  
32 37% 48% Median, Majority
33 10% 11% Last Result
34 0.8% 0.8%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 3% 100%  
30 10% 97%  
31 42% 87% Last Result
32 44% 45% Median, Majority
33 0.6% 0.6%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 6% 99.5%  
28 62% 94%  
29 30% 31% Median
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 34% 99.7% Last Result
26 41% 65% Median
27 23% 24%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.6% 100% Last Result
24 6% 99.4%  
25 33% 94%  
26 52% 61% Median
27 9% 9%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.3% 100% Last Result
24 24% 98.7%  
25 50% 75% Median
26 25% 25%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 2% 100%  
23 48% 98%  
24 37% 50% Last Result, Median
25 12% 13%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.1% 100%  
22 3% 99.9%  
23 29% 97%  
24 54% 68% Median
25 14% 14%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 47% 98%  
23 38% 51% Median
24 12% 12%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 4% 98%  
22 57% 94%  
23 30% 37% Median
24 7% 7%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.0% 100%  
21 43% 99.0%  
22 40% 55% Median
23 14% 15%  
24 0.9% 0.9%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 7% 99.7%  
21 43% 93%  
22 49% 50% Median
23 0.8% 0.8%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 4% 99.9%  
16 31% 96%  
17 56% 65% Median
18 9% 9% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 28% 100%  
16 42% 72% Median
17 27% 30%  
18 3% 3% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 59% 98%  
15 36% 39% Median
16 3% 3%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 57% 99.3%  
13 35% 43% Median
14 7% 7%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations