Opinion Poll by MMR, 3–13 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
20.3% |
19.2–21.5% |
18.9–21.8% |
18.6–22.1% |
18.1–22.7% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.8% |
15.8–17.9% |
15.5–18.2% |
15.3–18.5% |
14.8–19.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
12.9% |
12.0–13.9% |
11.8–14.2% |
11.6–14.4% |
11.1–14.9% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.1% |
10.3–12.1% |
10.0–12.3% |
9.8–12.6% |
9.4–13.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.0% |
10.2–11.9% |
9.9–12.2% |
9.7–12.4% |
9.3–12.9% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.5% |
9.7–11.4% |
9.4–11.7% |
9.3–11.9% |
8.9–12.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.2% |
7.5–9.0% |
7.3–9.3% |
7.1–9.5% |
6.8–9.9% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.1% |
3.6–4.7% |
3.4–4.9% |
3.3–5.0% |
3.1–5.3% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.5% |
3.0–4.1% |
2.9–4.2% |
2.8–4.4% |
2.6–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
13 |
17% |
99.5% |
|
14 |
55% |
83% |
Median |
15 |
26% |
28% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
3% |
100% |
|
11 |
45% |
97% |
|
12 |
44% |
52% |
Median |
13 |
8% |
8% |
|
14 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
18% |
97% |
|
10 |
78% |
79% |
Median |
11 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
2% |
100% |
|
7 |
46% |
98% |
|
8 |
45% |
52% |
Median |
9 |
6% |
6% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
54% |
96% |
Median |
8 |
37% |
42% |
|
9 |
5% |
5% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
17% |
100% |
|
7 |
67% |
83% |
Median |
8 |
17% |
17% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
54% |
98% |
Median |
6 |
44% |
44% |
|
7 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
3% |
|
2 |
0% |
3% |
|
3 |
3% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
34 |
99.8% |
33–36 |
33–36 |
33–36 |
32–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
34 |
98.8% |
32–35 |
32–35 |
32–35 |
31–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0.3% |
28–30 |
28–31 |
27–31 |
27–31 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–30 |
27–30 |
27–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
22–26 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–23 |
19–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–21 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
13 |
0% |
12–14 |
12–14 |
12–14 |
11–15 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
2% |
99.8% |
Majority |
33 |
18% |
98% |
Last Result |
34 |
34% |
80% |
|
35 |
36% |
46% |
Median |
36 |
10% |
10% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
10% |
98.8% |
Majority |
33 |
38% |
89% |
|
34 |
33% |
51% |
Median |
35 |
16% |
18% |
|
36 |
2% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
17% |
97% |
|
29 |
34% |
80% |
Median |
30 |
37% |
46% |
|
31 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
26% |
95% |
|
29 |
45% |
69% |
|
30 |
23% |
24% |
Median |
31 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
19% |
96% |
|
27 |
43% |
77% |
Median |
28 |
30% |
34% |
|
29 |
3% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
9% |
99.1% |
|
26 |
38% |
90% |
|
27 |
37% |
52% |
Median |
28 |
14% |
15% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.6% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
25 |
36% |
95% |
|
26 |
43% |
59% |
Median |
27 |
14% |
15% |
|
28 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
12% |
99.2% |
|
24 |
33% |
87% |
|
25 |
37% |
53% |
Median |
26 |
14% |
16% |
Last Result |
27 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
22 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
26% |
94% |
Last Result |
24 |
42% |
68% |
Median |
25 |
24% |
25% |
|
26 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
7% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
28% |
93% |
|
23 |
47% |
65% |
Median |
24 |
17% |
17% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
11% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
26% |
89% |
|
22 |
48% |
63% |
Median |
23 |
13% |
15% |
|
24 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
20 |
19% |
98.5% |
Last Result |
21 |
48% |
79% |
Median |
22 |
27% |
31% |
|
23 |
3% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
40% |
92% |
Median |
20 |
42% |
52% |
|
21 |
10% |
10% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
2% |
100% |
|
18 |
20% |
98% |
Last Result |
19 |
46% |
78% |
|
20 |
26% |
32% |
Median |
21 |
5% |
6% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
16 |
11% |
99.5% |
|
17 |
45% |
88% |
|
18 |
41% |
43% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
24% |
98% |
|
15 |
51% |
74% |
Median |
16 |
17% |
23% |
|
17 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
2% |
100% |
|
12 |
22% |
98% |
|
13 |
53% |
76% |
Median |
14 |
21% |
23% |
|
15 |
2% |
2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–13 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 2057
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.65%