Opinion Poll by MMR, 3–13 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 20.3% 19.2–21.5% 18.9–21.8% 18.6–22.1% 18.1–22.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.8% 15.8–17.9% 15.5–18.2% 15.3–18.5% 14.8–19.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 12.9% 12.0–13.9% 11.8–14.2% 11.6–14.4% 11.1–14.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.1% 10.3–12.1% 10.0–12.3% 9.8–12.6% 9.4–13.0%
Píratar 9.2% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.3–11.9% 8.9–12.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.2% 7.5–9.0% 7.3–9.3% 7.1–9.5% 6.8–9.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.1% 3.6–4.7% 3.4–4.9% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–16
Samfylkingin 7 12 11–12 11–13 10–13 10–14
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 9–10 9–10 8–10 8–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–9
Píratar 6 7 7–8 7–9 6–9 6–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–3
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 17% 99.5%  
14 55% 83% Median
15 26% 28%  
16 2% 2% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 3% 100%  
11 45% 97%  
12 44% 52% Median
13 8% 8%  
14 0.6% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 3% 99.9%  
9 18% 97%  
10 78% 79% Median
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 46% 98%  
8 45% 52% Median
9 6% 6%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 4% 100% Last Result
7 54% 96% Median
8 37% 42%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 17% 100%  
7 67% 83% Median
8 17% 17%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 54% 98% Median
6 44% 44%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 34 99.8% 33–36 33–36 33–36 32–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 34 98.8% 32–35 32–35 32–35 31–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 0.3% 28–30 28–31 27–31 27–31
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 29 0% 28–30 28–30 27–30 27–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 27 0% 26–28 26–28 25–29 25–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 25–28 25–28 25–28 24–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 25–27 24–27 24–27 23–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 23–26 23–26 23–26 22–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–25 22–26
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–24 21–24 21–24 21–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 20–23 20–23 20–23 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–23 19–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–21 18–21 18–21 18–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 18–20 18–21 18–21 17–21
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 14–16 14–17 14–17 13–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 12–14 12–14 12–14 11–15

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 2% 99.8% Majority
33 18% 98% Last Result
34 34% 80%  
35 36% 46% Median
36 10% 10%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.8%  
32 10% 98.8% Majority
33 38% 89%  
34 33% 51% Median
35 16% 18%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 3% 99.8%  
28 17% 97%  
29 34% 80% Median
30 37% 46%  
31 9% 9% Last Result
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0.2% 100%  
27 5% 99.8%  
28 26% 95%  
29 45% 69%  
30 23% 24% Median
31 1.5% 1.5%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 4% 99.8%  
26 19% 96%  
27 43% 77% Median
28 30% 34%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
25 9% 99.1%  
26 38% 90%  
27 37% 52% Median
28 14% 15%  
29 1.0% 1.1%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.6% 100% Last Result
24 5% 99.4%  
25 36% 95%  
26 43% 59% Median
27 14% 15%  
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.9%  
23 12% 99.2%  
24 33% 87%  
25 37% 53% Median
26 14% 16% Last Result
27 1.4% 1.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 5% 99.7%  
23 26% 94% Last Result
24 42% 68% Median
25 24% 25%  
26 1.4% 1.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 7% 99.7%  
22 28% 93%  
23 47% 65% Median
24 17% 17%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 11% 99.8%  
21 26% 89%  
22 48% 63% Median
23 13% 15%  
24 1.4% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.5% 100%  
20 19% 98.5% Last Result
21 48% 79% Median
22 27% 31%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 7% 99.6%  
19 40% 92% Median
20 42% 52%  
21 10% 10%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 2% 100%  
18 20% 98% Last Result
19 46% 78%  
20 26% 32% Median
21 5% 6%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 11% 99.5%  
17 45% 88%  
18 41% 43% Last Result, Median
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 24% 98%  
15 51% 74% Median
16 17% 23%  
17 5% 5% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 22% 98%  
13 53% 76% Median
14 21% 23%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations