Opinion Poll by MMR, 28 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
19.0% |
17.4–20.8% |
17.0–21.3% |
16.6–21.7% |
15.9–22.6% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.6% |
15.1–18.3% |
14.7–18.7% |
14.3–19.2% |
13.6–20.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
15.1% |
13.6–16.7% |
13.2–17.1% |
12.9–17.5% |
12.2–18.3% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
12.4% |
11.1–13.9% |
10.7–14.3% |
10.4–14.7% |
9.8–15.5% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.5% |
9.3–12.0% |
9.0–12.4% |
8.7–12.7% |
8.2–13.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
8.7% |
7.6–10.0% |
7.3–10.4% |
7.0–10.7% |
6.5–11.4% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.1% |
6.2–8.4% |
5.9–8.7% |
5.6–9.0% |
5.2–9.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.9% |
4.1–6.0% |
3.9–6.3% |
3.7–6.6% |
3.4–7.1% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.8% |
3.1–4.8% |
2.9–5.1% |
2.8–5.3% |
2.5–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
11 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
12 |
19% |
94% |
|
13 |
44% |
75% |
Median |
14 |
21% |
31% |
|
15 |
9% |
10% |
|
16 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
17% |
98% |
|
11 |
33% |
81% |
Median |
12 |
34% |
48% |
|
13 |
11% |
14% |
|
14 |
3% |
3% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
9 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
10 |
49% |
98% |
Median |
11 |
22% |
49% |
|
12 |
20% |
28% |
|
13 |
4% |
8% |
|
14 |
4% |
4% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
11% |
98.9% |
|
8 |
47% |
87% |
Median |
9 |
34% |
41% |
|
10 |
6% |
7% |
|
11 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
22% |
98% |
Last Result |
7 |
47% |
77% |
Median |
8 |
28% |
30% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
4% |
100% |
|
5 |
32% |
96% |
|
6 |
48% |
64% |
Median |
7 |
16% |
16% |
|
8 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
3 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
4 |
39% |
96% |
|
5 |
44% |
57% |
Median |
6 |
12% |
13% |
|
7 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
50% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
4% |
50% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
46% |
|
3 |
33% |
46% |
|
4 |
13% |
13% |
|
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
2 |
0% |
5% |
|
3 |
5% |
5% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
33 |
80% |
31–35 |
30–35 |
30–35 |
28–37 |
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
28 |
33 |
76% |
30–35 |
30–35 |
29–35 |
28–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
2% |
26–31 |
26–31 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
28 |
1.5% |
26–30 |
26–30 |
25–31 |
24–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
23 |
0% |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
20–27 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
18–25 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
19 |
0% |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–21 |
16–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–20 |
15–20 |
14–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
14–20 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–19 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
13 |
0% |
11–14 |
11–15 |
11–15 |
10–15 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
10 |
0% |
9–12 |
9–12 |
8–12 |
8–13 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.7% |
98.9% |
|
30 |
4% |
98% |
|
31 |
14% |
94% |
|
32 |
27% |
80% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
17% |
53% |
Last Result |
34 |
25% |
36% |
|
35 |
9% |
11% |
|
36 |
2% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
29 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
30 |
7% |
97% |
|
31 |
13% |
89% |
|
32 |
21% |
76% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
22% |
56% |
|
34 |
22% |
33% |
|
35 |
9% |
11% |
|
36 |
2% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
11% |
99.3% |
|
27 |
9% |
89% |
|
28 |
23% |
80% |
Median |
29 |
28% |
56% |
|
30 |
18% |
29% |
|
31 |
9% |
11% |
Last Result |
32 |
1.3% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.4% |
98.8% |
Last Result |
26 |
8% |
97% |
|
27 |
25% |
89% |
Median |
28 |
26% |
64% |
|
29 |
21% |
38% |
|
30 |
13% |
16% |
|
31 |
2% |
4% |
|
32 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
5% |
98% |
|
23 |
14% |
93% |
Last Result |
24 |
27% |
79% |
Median |
25 |
27% |
52% |
|
26 |
17% |
25% |
|
27 |
6% |
7% |
|
28 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
6% |
98.7% |
|
22 |
21% |
93% |
|
23 |
23% |
72% |
|
24 |
22% |
49% |
Median |
25 |
16% |
27% |
|
26 |
8% |
11% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
8% |
96% |
|
23 |
18% |
88% |
|
24 |
27% |
71% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
20% |
44% |
|
26 |
19% |
24% |
|
27 |
3% |
4% |
|
28 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
14% |
98% |
|
23 |
22% |
84% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
24% |
63% |
|
25 |
26% |
38% |
|
26 |
10% |
12% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
5% |
98% |
|
20 |
11% |
94% |
|
21 |
17% |
82% |
|
22 |
30% |
65% |
Median |
23 |
25% |
35% |
|
24 |
7% |
10% |
|
25 |
3% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
7% |
98% |
|
20 |
23% |
92% |
|
21 |
24% |
69% |
Median |
22 |
26% |
45% |
|
23 |
12% |
19% |
|
24 |
7% |
7% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
3% |
98% |
|
20 |
20% |
95% |
Last Result |
21 |
24% |
75% |
Median |
22 |
31% |
52% |
|
23 |
16% |
20% |
|
24 |
2% |
4% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
7% |
97% |
|
18 |
33% |
90% |
|
19 |
26% |
57% |
Median |
20 |
20% |
31% |
|
21 |
9% |
11% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
16 |
17% |
97% |
|
17 |
19% |
80% |
|
18 |
34% |
61% |
Median |
19 |
18% |
27% |
|
20 |
8% |
10% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
6% |
97% |
|
16 |
17% |
91% |
|
17 |
32% |
75% |
Median |
18 |
31% |
43% |
Last Result |
19 |
9% |
12% |
|
20 |
3% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
15% |
98% |
|
16 |
36% |
83% |
Median |
17 |
23% |
47% |
|
18 |
14% |
24% |
Last Result |
19 |
8% |
10% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
10% |
98.9% |
|
12 |
29% |
89% |
|
13 |
29% |
60% |
Median |
14 |
25% |
31% |
|
15 |
5% |
6% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
16% |
97% |
|
10 |
37% |
81% |
|
11 |
25% |
44% |
Median |
12 |
18% |
20% |
|
13 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 28 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.51%