Opinion Poll by MMR, 28 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 19.0% 17.4–20.8% 17.0–21.3% 16.6–21.7% 15.9–22.6%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.6% 15.1–18.3% 14.7–18.7% 14.3–19.2% 13.6–20.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 15.1% 13.6–16.7% 13.2–17.1% 12.9–17.5% 12.2–18.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 12.4% 11.1–13.9% 10.7–14.3% 10.4–14.7% 9.8–15.5%
Píratar 9.2% 10.5% 9.3–12.0% 9.0–12.4% 8.7–12.7% 8.2–13.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.0–10.7% 6.5–11.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.1% 6.2–8.4% 5.9–8.7% 5.6–9.0% 5.2–9.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 13 12–15 11–15 11–15 11–16
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–14
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 10–12 10–13 10–14 9–14
Viðreisn 4 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–11
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–6 3–6 3–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 1 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0–1 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 5% 99.6%  
12 19% 94%  
13 44% 75% Median
14 21% 31%  
15 9% 10%  
16 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 17% 98%  
11 33% 81% Median
12 34% 48%  
13 11% 14%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.4% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.6%  
10 49% 98% Median
11 22% 49%  
12 20% 28%  
13 4% 8%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.0% 99.9%  
7 11% 98.9%  
8 47% 87% Median
9 34% 41%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.3% 1.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 22% 98% Last Result
7 47% 77% Median
8 28% 30%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 32% 96%  
6 48% 64% Median
7 16% 16%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 4% 99.8%  
4 39% 96%  
5 44% 57% Median
6 12% 13%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result
1 4% 50% Median
2 0% 46%  
3 33% 46%  
4 13% 13%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 0.2% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 5% 5%  
4 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 33 80% 31–35 30–35 30–35 28–37
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 33 76% 30–35 30–35 29–35 28–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 2% 26–31 26–31 26–31 25–32
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 28 1.5% 26–30 26–30 25–31 24–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 23 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–27
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 22–26 22–26 22–26 21–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 19–24 19–25 18–25
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 19 0% 17–21 17–21 16–21 16–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 18 0% 16–19 16–20 15–20 14–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–19 15–19 14–20 14–20
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 13 0% 11–14 11–15 11–15 10–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 10 0% 9–12 9–12 8–12 8–13

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 1.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 98.9%  
30 4% 98%  
31 14% 94%  
32 27% 80% Median, Majority
33 17% 53% Last Result
34 25% 36%  
35 9% 11%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 2% 99.9% Last Result
29 1.3% 98%  
30 7% 97%  
31 13% 89%  
32 21% 76% Median, Majority
33 22% 56%  
34 22% 33%  
35 9% 11%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.8%  
26 11% 99.3%  
27 9% 89%  
28 23% 80% Median
29 28% 56%  
30 18% 29%  
31 9% 11% Last Result
32 1.3% 2% Majority
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.2% 100%  
25 1.4% 98.8% Last Result
26 8% 97%  
27 25% 89% Median
28 26% 64%  
29 21% 38%  
30 13% 16%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.4% 1.5% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 5% 98%  
23 14% 93% Last Result
24 27% 79% Median
25 27% 52%  
26 17% 25%  
27 6% 7%  
28 1.4% 1.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.9%  
21 6% 98.7%  
22 21% 93%  
23 23% 72%  
24 22% 49% Median
25 16% 27%  
26 8% 11%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.6%  
22 8% 96%  
23 18% 88%  
24 27% 71% Last Result, Median
25 20% 44%  
26 19% 24%  
27 3% 4%  
28 1.0% 1.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 14% 98%  
23 22% 84% Last Result, Median
24 24% 63%  
25 26% 38%  
26 10% 12%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 5% 98%  
20 11% 94%  
21 17% 82%  
22 30% 65% Median
23 25% 35%  
24 7% 10%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 7% 98%  
20 23% 92%  
21 24% 69% Median
22 26% 45%  
23 12% 19%  
24 7% 7%  
25 0.6% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 3% 98%  
20 20% 95% Last Result
21 24% 75% Median
22 31% 52%  
23 16% 20%  
24 2% 4%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 7% 97%  
18 33% 90%  
19 26% 57% Median
20 20% 31%  
21 9% 11%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 17% 97%  
17 19% 80%  
18 34% 61% Median
19 18% 27%  
20 8% 10%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 6% 97%  
16 17% 91%  
17 32% 75% Median
18 31% 43% Last Result
19 9% 12%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 15% 98%  
16 36% 83% Median
17 23% 47%  
18 14% 24% Last Result
19 8% 10%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.0% 99.9%  
11 10% 98.9%  
12 29% 89%  
13 29% 60% Median
14 25% 31%  
15 5% 6%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 16% 97%  
10 37% 81%  
11 25% 44% Median
12 18% 20%  
13 1.0% 1.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations