Opinion Poll by Gallup, 3 January–2 February 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.7% |
20.9–22.5% |
20.7–22.7% |
20.5–22.9% |
20.2–23.3% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
17.8% |
17.1–18.5% |
16.9–18.7% |
16.7–18.9% |
16.4–19.3% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
12.6% |
11.9–13.2% |
11.8–13.4% |
11.6–13.6% |
11.4–13.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.5% |
11.0–12.2% |
10.8–12.4% |
10.7–12.5% |
10.4–12.8% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.5% |
10.0–11.2% |
9.8–11.3% |
9.7–11.5% |
9.4–11.8% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.3% |
9.8–10.9% |
9.6–11.1% |
9.5–11.3% |
9.2–11.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.8% |
7.3–8.4% |
7.2–8.5% |
7.1–8.7% |
6.9–8.9% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.2% |
3.9–4.6% |
3.8–4.8% |
3.7–4.9% |
3.5–5.1% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.4% |
3.1–3.8% |
3.0–3.9% |
2.9–4.0% |
2.8–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
9% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
76% |
90% |
Median |
16 |
15% |
15% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
15% |
100% |
|
12 |
74% |
85% |
Median |
13 |
10% |
11% |
|
14 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
36% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
64% |
64% |
Median |
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
24% |
100% |
|
8 |
75% |
76% |
Median |
9 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
3% |
100% |
|
7 |
93% |
97% |
Median |
8 |
4% |
4% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
46% |
100% |
|
7 |
53% |
54% |
Median |
8 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
96% |
98% |
Median |
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
34 |
100% |
33–34 |
33–34 |
33–35 |
32–35 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
99.8% |
33–34 |
33–34 |
33–35 |
32–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
0% |
29–30 |
29–30 |
28–30 |
28–31 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
29 |
0% |
28–29 |
28–29 |
28–30 |
27–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
27 |
0% |
27–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
27 |
0% |
26–27 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
25–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–25 |
24–25 |
23–25 |
23–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–23 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–22 |
21–22 |
21–22 |
20–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
20–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
18–20 |
18–20 |
18–21 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–17 |
16–17 |
16–17 |
15–18 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
15 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–15 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
12 |
0% |
12 |
12–13 |
11–13 |
11–13 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
2% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
39% |
98% |
Last Result |
34 |
54% |
59% |
Median |
35 |
5% |
5% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
2% |
99.8% |
Majority |
33 |
69% |
98% |
|
34 |
26% |
29% |
Median |
35 |
3% |
3% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
26% |
97% |
|
30 |
69% |
71% |
Median |
31 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
100% |
|
28 |
39% |
98% |
|
29 |
54% |
59% |
Median |
30 |
5% |
5% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
26 |
10% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
73% |
90% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
17% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
29% |
98.6% |
|
27 |
64% |
70% |
Median |
28 |
6% |
6% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
26 |
20% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
57% |
79% |
Median |
28 |
20% |
22% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
15% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
73% |
85% |
Median |
25 |
10% |
12% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
26% |
97% |
|
25 |
69% |
71% |
Median |
26 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
10% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
74% |
90% |
Median |
23 |
16% |
16% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.6% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
53% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
32% |
46% |
Median |
23 |
14% |
14% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
|
21 |
33% |
98% |
|
22 |
63% |
65% |
Median |
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
10% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
75% |
90% |
Median |
21 |
15% |
15% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
16% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
19 |
72% |
84% |
Median |
20 |
10% |
12% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
2% |
100% |
|
16 |
33% |
98% |
|
17 |
64% |
65% |
Median |
18 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
23% |
98.9% |
|
15 |
73% |
76% |
Median |
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
11 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
12 |
91% |
96% |
Median |
13 |
5% |
5% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3 January–2 February 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 4495
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.64%