Opinion Poll by Gallup, 3 January–2 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.7% 20.9–22.5% 20.7–22.7% 20.5–22.9% 20.2–23.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 17.8% 17.1–18.5% 16.9–18.7% 16.7–18.9% 16.4–19.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 12.6% 11.9–13.2% 11.8–13.4% 11.6–13.6% 11.4–13.9%
Píratar 9.2% 11.5% 11.0–12.2% 10.8–12.4% 10.7–12.5% 10.4–12.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.5% 10.0–11.2% 9.8–11.3% 9.7–11.5% 9.4–11.8%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.3% 9.8–10.9% 9.6–11.1% 9.5–11.3% 9.2–11.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.8% 7.3–8.4% 7.2–8.5% 7.1–8.7% 6.9–8.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.2% 3.9–4.6% 3.8–4.8% 3.7–4.9% 3.5–5.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.4% 3.1–3.8% 3.0–3.9% 2.9–4.0% 2.8–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 15–16 14–16 14–16 14–16
Samfylkingin 7 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 11–14
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–10
Píratar 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 7 7 6–8 6–8
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5 5 5 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 9% 99.9%  
15 76% 90% Median
16 15% 15% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 15% 100%  
12 74% 85% Median
13 10% 11%  
14 1.4% 1.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.1% 100%  
9 36% 99.9%  
10 64% 64% Median
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 24% 100%  
8 75% 76% Median
9 1.2% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 93% 97% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 46% 100%  
7 53% 54% Median
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 96% 98% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 34 100% 33–34 33–34 33–35 32–35
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 33 99.8% 33–34 33–34 33–35 32–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 0% 29–30 29–30 28–30 28–31
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 29 0% 28–29 28–29 28–30 27–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 27 0% 27–28 26–28 26–28 26–28
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 27 0% 26–27 26–28 26–28 25–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 26–28 26–28 26–28 26–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 25 0% 24–25 24–25 23–25 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–23 21–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 21–23 21–23 21–23 20–23
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–22 21–22 21–22 20–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 20–21 19–21 19–21 19–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 18–20 18–20 18–20 18–21
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–17 16–17 16–17 15–18
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 15 0% 14–15 14–15 14–16 13–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 12 12–13 11–13 11–13

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 2% 100% Majority
33 39% 98% Last Result
34 54% 59% Median
35 5% 5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.8% Majority
33 69% 98%  
34 26% 29% Median
35 3% 3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 3% 99.8%  
29 26% 97%  
30 69% 71% Median
31 2% 2% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 0% 100%  
27 2% 100%  
28 39% 98%  
29 54% 59% Median
30 5% 5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.5% 100%  
26 10% 99.5%  
27 73% 90% Median
28 17% 17%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100% Last Result
25 1.3% 99.9%  
26 29% 98.6%  
27 64% 70% Median
28 6% 6%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 100%  
26 20% 99.7%  
27 57% 79% Median
28 20% 22%  
29 1.3% 1.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 15% 99.8%  
24 73% 85% Median
25 10% 12%  
26 2% 2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 3% 100% Last Result
24 26% 97%  
25 69% 71% Median
26 1.3% 1.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 10% 99.7%  
22 74% 90% Median
23 16% 16%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.6% 100% Last Result
21 53% 99.4%  
22 32% 46% Median
23 14% 14%  
24 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 33% 98%  
22 63% 65% Median
23 2% 2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 10% 99.8%  
20 75% 90% Median
21 15% 15%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 16% 99.9% Last Result
19 72% 84% Median
20 10% 12%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 33% 98%  
17 64% 65% Median
18 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.1% 100%  
14 23% 98.9%  
15 73% 76% Median
16 3% 3%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 3% 99.8%  
12 91% 96% Median
13 5% 5%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations