Opinion Poll by MMR, 6–10 February 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.0% |
20.4–23.8% |
20.0–24.3% |
19.6–24.7% |
18.8–25.6% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.1% |
13.7–16.6% |
13.3–17.0% |
13.0–17.4% |
12.3–18.2% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
13.3% |
12.0–14.7% |
11.6–15.1% |
11.3–15.5% |
10.7–16.2% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.7% |
9.5–12.0% |
9.2–12.4% |
8.9–12.7% |
8.4–13.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.4% |
9.2–11.7% |
8.9–12.1% |
8.6–12.4% |
8.1–13.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.7% |
8.6–11.0% |
8.3–11.3% |
8.0–11.7% |
7.5–12.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
6.8% |
5.9–7.9% |
5.6–8.2% |
5.4–8.5% |
5.0–9.1% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.3% |
4.5–6.3% |
4.3–6.6% |
4.1–6.9% |
3.7–7.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.6% |
3.8–5.5% |
3.6–5.8% |
3.5–6.1% |
3.1–6.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
20% |
95% |
|
15 |
38% |
76% |
Median |
16 |
20% |
38% |
Last Result |
17 |
15% |
18% |
|
18 |
2% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
11% |
97% |
|
10 |
56% |
86% |
Median |
11 |
24% |
30% |
|
12 |
5% |
6% |
|
13 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
14 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
9 |
8% |
97% |
|
10 |
81% |
89% |
Median |
11 |
7% |
7% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
29% |
98% |
|
7 |
48% |
69% |
Median |
8 |
15% |
21% |
|
9 |
5% |
6% |
|
10 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
26% |
96% |
Last Result |
7 |
51% |
69% |
Median |
8 |
17% |
18% |
|
9 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
9% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
51% |
91% |
Median |
7 |
34% |
39% |
|
8 |
5% |
5% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
3 |
8% |
99.2% |
|
4 |
59% |
92% |
Median |
5 |
30% |
33% |
|
6 |
3% |
3% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
32% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.3% |
68% |
|
2 |
0% |
68% |
|
3 |
44% |
68% |
Median |
4 |
23% |
24% |
|
5 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
72% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
28% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
28% |
|
3 |
24% |
28% |
|
4 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
31 |
45% |
29–33 |
29–34 |
28–34 |
28–35 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
30 |
20% |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
26–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
13% |
28–32 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
26 |
0% |
24–29 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
20–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
19 |
0% |
18–22 |
18–22 |
17–22 |
17–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–20 |
14–21 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–19 |
15–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
14 |
0% |
12–15 |
12–16 |
12–16 |
11–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
11 |
0% |
10–13 |
9–13 |
9–14 |
9–14 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
29 |
8% |
97% |
|
30 |
16% |
90% |
|
31 |
29% |
74% |
Median |
32 |
24% |
45% |
Majority |
33 |
14% |
20% |
Last Result |
34 |
5% |
6% |
|
35 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
28 |
8% |
96% |
Last Result |
29 |
16% |
87% |
|
30 |
24% |
71% |
Median |
31 |
27% |
47% |
|
32 |
11% |
20% |
Majority |
33 |
5% |
9% |
|
34 |
3% |
4% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
5% |
99.0% |
|
28 |
19% |
94% |
|
29 |
30% |
74% |
Median |
30 |
21% |
45% |
|
31 |
10% |
24% |
Last Result |
32 |
12% |
13% |
Majority |
33 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
1.1% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
9% |
98% |
Last Result |
26 |
19% |
90% |
|
27 |
38% |
70% |
Median |
28 |
20% |
32% |
|
29 |
10% |
13% |
|
30 |
2% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
8% |
98% |
|
25 |
19% |
90% |
|
26 |
24% |
71% |
Median |
27 |
17% |
47% |
|
28 |
15% |
29% |
|
29 |
12% |
14% |
|
30 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
6% |
98.6% |
Last Result |
24 |
22% |
93% |
|
25 |
34% |
71% |
Median |
26 |
17% |
37% |
|
27 |
15% |
19% |
|
28 |
4% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
4% |
98.9% |
Last Result |
24 |
16% |
95% |
|
25 |
32% |
78% |
Median |
26 |
25% |
46% |
|
27 |
14% |
21% |
|
28 |
6% |
8% |
|
29 |
1.1% |
1.5% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
22 |
9% |
95% |
|
23 |
17% |
86% |
|
24 |
38% |
69% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
19% |
31% |
|
26 |
8% |
12% |
|
27 |
3% |
4% |
|
28 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
20 |
10% |
98.9% |
|
21 |
23% |
89% |
|
22 |
26% |
67% |
Median |
23 |
20% |
41% |
|
24 |
14% |
21% |
|
25 |
6% |
7% |
|
26 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
6% |
98% |
|
20 |
16% |
92% |
|
21 |
29% |
76% |
Median |
22 |
28% |
47% |
|
23 |
11% |
19% |
|
24 |
6% |
8% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
20 |
16% |
95% |
Last Result |
21 |
25% |
79% |
Median |
22 |
30% |
54% |
|
23 |
11% |
23% |
|
24 |
12% |
13% |
|
25 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
20 |
22% |
93% |
|
21 |
33% |
70% |
Median |
22 |
25% |
37% |
|
23 |
10% |
12% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
17 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
18 |
16% |
96% |
|
19 |
32% |
79% |
Median |
20 |
22% |
47% |
|
21 |
14% |
24% |
|
22 |
9% |
10% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
15 |
7% |
99.0% |
|
16 |
19% |
92% |
|
17 |
40% |
73% |
Median |
18 |
21% |
33% |
Last Result |
19 |
8% |
12% |
|
20 |
3% |
4% |
|
21 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
16 |
31% |
95% |
|
17 |
41% |
64% |
Median |
18 |
18% |
23% |
Last Result |
19 |
4% |
5% |
|
20 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
11 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
12 |
10% |
98% |
|
13 |
27% |
88% |
|
14 |
35% |
60% |
Median |
15 |
19% |
25% |
|
16 |
5% |
7% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
9 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
10 |
22% |
95% |
|
11 |
35% |
73% |
Median |
12 |
27% |
38% |
|
13 |
8% |
12% |
|
14 |
3% |
3% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–10 February 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.81%