Opinion Poll by MMR, 6–10 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.0% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.3% 19.6–24.7% 18.8–25.6%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 13.0–17.4% 12.3–18.2%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 13.3% 12.0–14.7% 11.6–15.1% 11.3–15.5% 10.7–16.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.7% 9.5–12.0% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.7% 8.4–13.4%
Píratar 9.2% 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.3% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–18
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 9–12 8–12 8–13
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 9–10 9–11 8–11 7–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 4–5 3–5 3–6 2–6
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 4% 99.9%  
14 20% 95%  
15 38% 76% Median
16 20% 38% Last Result
17 15% 18%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 3% 99.9%  
9 11% 97%  
10 56% 86% Median
11 24% 30%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100% Last Result
8 3% 99.5%  
9 8% 97%  
10 81% 89% Median
11 7% 7%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 29% 98%  
7 48% 69% Median
8 15% 21%  
9 5% 6%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 26% 96% Last Result
7 51% 69% Median
8 17% 18%  
9 1.3% 1.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100% Last Result
5 9% 99.8%  
6 51% 91% Median
7 34% 39%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 8% 99.2%  
4 59% 92% Median
5 30% 33%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 68%  
2 0% 68%  
3 44% 68% Median
4 23% 24%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Median
1 0% 28%  
2 0.1% 28%  
3 24% 28%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 31 45% 29–33 29–34 28–34 28–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 30 20% 28–32 28–33 27–34 26–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 13% 28–32 27–32 27–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 27 0% 25–29 25–29 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 26 0% 24–29 24–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 24 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 20–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–23 19–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 20–24 20–24 19–24 18–25
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–23 19–23 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 19 0% 18–22 18–22 17–22 17–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–21
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 16–18 15–19 15–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 14 0% 12–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 11 0% 10–13 9–13 9–14 9–14

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.5%  
29 8% 97%  
30 16% 90%  
31 29% 74% Median
32 24% 45% Majority
33 14% 20% Last Result
34 5% 6%  
35 1.5% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.5% 99.8%  
27 4% 99.3%  
28 8% 96% Last Result
29 16% 87%  
30 24% 71% Median
31 27% 47%  
32 11% 20% Majority
33 5% 9%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.7%  
27 5% 99.0%  
28 19% 94%  
29 30% 74% Median
30 21% 45%  
31 10% 24% Last Result
32 12% 13% Majority
33 1.2% 1.3%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 99.6%  
25 9% 98% Last Result
26 19% 90%  
27 38% 70% Median
28 20% 32%  
29 10% 13%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.7% 0.8%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 8% 98%  
25 19% 90%  
26 24% 71% Median
27 17% 47%  
28 15% 29%  
29 12% 14%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.1% 99.8%  
23 6% 98.6% Last Result
24 22% 93%  
25 34% 71% Median
26 17% 37%  
27 15% 19%  
28 4% 4%  
29 0.5% 0.5%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.0% 99.9%  
23 4% 98.9% Last Result
24 16% 95%  
25 32% 78% Median
26 25% 46%  
27 14% 21%  
28 6% 8%  
29 1.1% 1.5%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.8%  
21 4% 99.2%  
22 9% 95%  
23 17% 86%  
24 38% 69% Last Result, Median
25 19% 31%  
26 8% 12%  
27 3% 4%  
28 1.1% 1.3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.0% 100%  
20 10% 98.9%  
21 23% 89%  
22 26% 67% Median
23 20% 41%  
24 14% 21%  
25 6% 7%  
26 1.0% 1.1%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 6% 98%  
20 16% 92%  
21 29% 76% Median
22 28% 47%  
23 11% 19%  
24 6% 8%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.0% 100%  
19 3% 99.0%  
20 16% 95% Last Result
21 25% 79% Median
22 30% 54%  
23 11% 23%  
24 12% 13%  
25 1.0% 1.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.9%  
19 6% 99.1%  
20 22% 93%  
21 33% 70% Median
22 25% 37%  
23 10% 12%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 4% 99.6%  
18 16% 96%  
19 32% 79% Median
20 22% 47%  
21 14% 24%  
22 9% 10%  
23 1.1% 1.3%  
24 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.8%  
15 7% 99.0%  
16 19% 92%  
17 40% 73% Median
18 21% 33% Last Result
19 8% 12%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.8% 0.9%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 4% 99.5%  
16 31% 95%  
17 41% 64% Median
18 18% 23% Last Result
19 4% 5%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 10% 98%  
13 27% 88%  
14 35% 60% Median
15 19% 25%  
16 5% 7%  
17 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 5% 99.6%  
10 22% 95%  
11 35% 73% Median
12 27% 38%  
13 8% 12%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations