Opinion Poll by Gallup, 3 February–1 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.6% |
20.8–22.4% |
20.6–22.7% |
20.4–22.9% |
20.0–23.3% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.5% |
13.9–15.2% |
13.7–15.5% |
13.5–15.6% |
13.2–16.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
14.0% |
13.3–14.6% |
13.1–14.8% |
13.0–15.0% |
12.7–15.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.7% |
11.1–12.3% |
10.9–12.5% |
10.8–12.7% |
10.5–13.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.5% |
9.9–11.1% |
9.8–11.3% |
9.6–11.4% |
9.4–11.8% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.1% |
9.6–10.7% |
9.4–10.9% |
9.3–11.1% |
9.0–11.4% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
6.9% |
6.4–7.4% |
6.3–7.6% |
6.2–7.7% |
5.9–7.9% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.9% |
4.5–5.3% |
4.4–5.5% |
4.3–5.6% |
4.1–5.8% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.9% |
3.6–4.3% |
3.5–4.5% |
3.4–4.5% |
3.2–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
60% |
96% |
Median |
16 |
34% |
36% |
Last Result |
17 |
2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
14% |
100% |
|
10 |
67% |
86% |
Median |
11 |
18% |
18% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
10 |
95% |
99.0% |
Median |
11 |
4% |
4% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
23% |
100% |
|
8 |
67% |
77% |
Median |
9 |
9% |
10% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
12% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
66% |
88% |
Median |
8 |
22% |
22% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
30% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
62% |
70% |
Median |
8 |
8% |
8% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
59% |
99.9% |
Median |
5 |
40% |
40% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
52% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
48% |
|
2 |
0% |
48% |
|
3 |
45% |
48% |
|
4 |
2% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
74% |
31–34 |
31–34 |
31–34 |
30–35 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
32 |
54% |
30–33 |
30–34 |
29–34 |
29–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
0.6% |
29–31 |
29–31 |
28–31 |
28–32 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
28 |
0% |
27–29 |
27–29 |
27–30 |
26–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
28 |
0% |
27–29 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
25–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
25 |
0% |
25–26 |
25–26 |
24–26 |
24–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
22–24 |
21–25 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–19 |
17–20 |
16–20 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–19 |
17–19 |
17–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
13–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
12 |
0% |
11–13 |
11–14 |
11–14 |
11–14 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
24% |
98.7% |
|
32 |
27% |
74% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
36% |
47% |
Last Result |
34 |
10% |
12% |
|
35 |
2% |
2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
3% |
100% |
|
30 |
16% |
97% |
|
31 |
27% |
81% |
|
32 |
14% |
54% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
33% |
40% |
|
34 |
7% |
7% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
29 |
33% |
97% |
Median |
30 |
48% |
64% |
|
31 |
15% |
16% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
2% |
100% |
|
27 |
30% |
98% |
|
28 |
44% |
68% |
Median |
29 |
21% |
24% |
|
30 |
3% |
3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
26 |
8% |
99.4% |
|
27 |
37% |
91% |
Median |
28 |
41% |
55% |
|
29 |
13% |
14% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.8% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
14% |
99.2% |
|
25 |
41% |
85% |
Median |
26 |
36% |
44% |
|
27 |
8% |
8% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
31% |
94% |
Last Result |
25 |
28% |
63% |
Median |
26 |
27% |
35% |
|
27 |
8% |
8% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
57% |
95% |
Median |
26 |
36% |
39% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
22 |
11% |
99.2% |
|
23 |
59% |
88% |
Median |
24 |
27% |
29% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
17% |
100% |
|
22 |
43% |
83% |
Median |
23 |
33% |
40% |
|
24 |
7% |
7% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
24% |
98.7% |
|
22 |
28% |
74% |
Median |
23 |
37% |
46% |
|
24 |
8% |
10% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
16% |
98% |
|
22 |
56% |
82% |
Median |
23 |
22% |
26% |
|
24 |
4% |
4% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
3% |
100% |
|
19 |
34% |
97% |
Median |
20 |
50% |
63% |
|
21 |
13% |
13% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
2% |
100% |
|
17 |
30% |
98% |
|
18 |
46% |
68% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
19% |
22% |
|
20 |
3% |
3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
23% |
100% |
|
18 |
65% |
77% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
11% |
12% |
|
20 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
4% |
100% |
|
14 |
26% |
96% |
|
15 |
43% |
71% |
Median |
16 |
27% |
28% |
|
17 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
17% |
100% |
|
12 |
44% |
83% |
Median |
13 |
34% |
39% |
|
14 |
5% |
5% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3 February–1 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 4285
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.08%