Opinion Poll by Gallup, 3 February–1 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.6% 20.8–22.4% 20.6–22.7% 20.4–22.9% 20.0–23.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.5% 13.9–15.2% 13.7–15.5% 13.5–15.6% 13.2–16.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 14.0% 13.3–14.6% 13.1–14.8% 13.0–15.0% 12.7–15.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.7% 11.1–12.3% 10.9–12.5% 10.8–12.7% 10.5–13.0%
Píratar 9.2% 10.5% 9.9–11.1% 9.8–11.3% 9.6–11.4% 9.4–11.8%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.1% 9.6–10.7% 9.4–10.9% 9.3–11.1% 9.0–11.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 6.9% 6.4–7.4% 6.3–7.6% 6.2–7.7% 5.9–7.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.9% 4.5–5.3% 4.4–5.5% 4.3–5.6% 4.1–5.8%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.9% 3.6–4.3% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.5% 3.2–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 15–16 15–16 14–16 14–17
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–11
Miðflokkurinn 7 10 10 10 10–11 9–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 4% 99.9%  
15 60% 96% Median
16 34% 36% Last Result
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 14% 100%  
10 67% 86% Median
11 18% 18%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 1.0% 100%  
10 95% 99.0% Median
11 4% 4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 23% 100%  
8 67% 77% Median
9 9% 10%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 12% 100% Last Result
7 66% 88% Median
8 22% 22%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 30% 99.9%  
7 62% 70% Median
8 8% 8%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 59% 99.9% Median
5 40% 40%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 48%  
2 0% 48%  
3 45% 48%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 74% 31–34 31–34 31–34 30–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 32 54% 30–33 30–34 29–34 29–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 0.6% 29–31 29–31 28–31 28–32
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–30 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 28 0% 27–29 26–29 26–29 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 24–26 24–27 24–27 23–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 25 0% 24–26 23–27 23–27 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 25 0% 25–26 25–26 24–26 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 21–25
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 21–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–24 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 20 0% 19–21 19–21 18–21 18–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–19 17–19 17–19 17–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 14–16 14–16 13–16 13–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 11–13 11–14 11–14 11–14

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 1.2% 100%  
31 24% 98.7%  
32 27% 74% Median, Majority
33 36% 47% Last Result
34 10% 12%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 3% 100%  
30 16% 97%  
31 27% 81%  
32 14% 54% Median, Majority
33 33% 40%  
34 7% 7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 3% 99.8%  
29 33% 97% Median
30 48% 64%  
31 15% 16% Last Result
32 0.6% 0.6% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100% Last Result
26 2% 100%  
27 30% 98%  
28 44% 68% Median
29 21% 24%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.6% 100%  
26 8% 99.4%  
27 37% 91% Median
28 41% 55%  
29 13% 14%  
30 0.7% 0.7%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.8% 100% Last Result
24 14% 99.2%  
25 41% 85% Median
26 36% 44%  
27 8% 8%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 6% 99.9%  
24 31% 94% Last Result
25 28% 63% Median
26 27% 35%  
27 8% 8%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100% Last Result
24 4% 99.7%  
25 57% 95% Median
26 36% 39%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.8% 100%  
22 11% 99.2%  
23 59% 88% Median
24 27% 29%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 17% 100%  
22 43% 83% Median
23 33% 40%  
24 7% 7%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.3% 100%  
21 24% 98.7%  
22 28% 74% Median
23 37% 46%  
24 8% 10%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100% Last Result
21 16% 98%  
22 56% 82% Median
23 22% 26%  
24 4% 4%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 3% 100%  
19 34% 97% Median
20 50% 63%  
21 13% 13%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100%  
17 30% 98%  
18 46% 68% Last Result, Median
19 19% 22%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 23% 100%  
18 65% 77% Last Result, Median
19 11% 12%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 4% 100%  
14 26% 96%  
15 43% 71% Median
16 27% 28%  
17 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 17% 100%  
12 44% 83% Median
13 34% 39%  
14 5% 5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations