Opinion Poll by MMR, 18–20 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
27.8% |
26.0–29.6% |
25.5–30.1% |
25.1–30.6% |
24.3–31.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.9% |
13.6–16.4% |
13.2–16.8% |
12.8–17.2% |
12.2–17.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.3% |
9.2–11.7% |
8.9–12.0% |
8.6–12.4% |
8.1–13.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.2% |
9.0–11.5% |
8.7–11.8% |
8.5–12.1% |
8.0–12.8% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.0% |
8.9–11.2% |
8.6–11.6% |
8.3–11.9% |
7.8–12.6% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.9% |
8.8–11.2% |
8.5–11.5% |
8.2–11.8% |
7.7–12.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.2% |
7.2–9.4% |
6.9–9.8% |
6.7–10.1% |
6.2–10.7% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.7% |
4.0–5.7% |
3.8–6.0% |
3.6–6.2% |
3.3–6.7% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.8% |
3.1–4.6% |
2.9–4.9% |
2.8–5.1% |
2.5–5.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
17 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
18 |
8% |
97% |
|
19 |
37% |
89% |
|
20 |
22% |
52% |
Median |
21 |
25% |
30% |
|
22 |
4% |
5% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
9 |
23% |
97% |
|
10 |
50% |
74% |
Median |
11 |
19% |
25% |
|
12 |
6% |
6% |
|
13 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
30% |
95% |
Last Result |
7 |
47% |
65% |
Median |
8 |
16% |
18% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
39% |
96% |
|
7 |
31% |
57% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
17% |
27% |
|
9 |
8% |
10% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
37% |
89% |
|
7 |
45% |
52% |
Median |
8 |
6% |
7% |
|
9 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
8% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
53% |
92% |
Median |
7 |
29% |
40% |
|
8 |
11% |
11% |
|
9 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
46% |
87% |
Median |
6 |
34% |
42% |
|
7 |
7% |
8% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
64% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
36% |
|
2 |
0% |
36% |
|
3 |
30% |
36% |
|
4 |
6% |
6% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
96% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
4% |
|
2 |
0% |
4% |
|
3 |
4% |
4% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
32 |
64% |
30–34 |
29–34 |
29–35 |
28–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
32 |
53% |
30–33 |
29–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
30 |
13% |
28–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
25–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
30 |
6% |
28–31 |
28–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
29 |
5% |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
25–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–29 |
24–30 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
22–28 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
24 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
20–26 |
19–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–25 |
19–25 |
18–25 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
19 |
0% |
17–21 |
16–21 |
16–22 |
16–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–19 |
14–19 |
13–19 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
14 |
0% |
12–15 |
11–15 |
11–16 |
11–17 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
13 |
0% |
12–15 |
11–15 |
11–15 |
10–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
12 |
0% |
10–14 |
10–14 |
10–14 |
9–14 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
5% |
99.0% |
|
30 |
7% |
94% |
|
31 |
23% |
87% |
Last Result |
32 |
27% |
64% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
21% |
37% |
|
34 |
12% |
16% |
|
35 |
3% |
4% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
9% |
98.6% |
|
30 |
12% |
90% |
|
31 |
25% |
78% |
|
32 |
22% |
53% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
24% |
31% |
|
34 |
5% |
7% |
|
35 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
27 |
4% |
96% |
|
28 |
13% |
92% |
Last Result |
29 |
23% |
79% |
|
30 |
22% |
56% |
Median |
31 |
21% |
34% |
|
32 |
9% |
13% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
4% |
|
34 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
28 |
12% |
96% |
|
29 |
26% |
84% |
|
30 |
26% |
58% |
Median |
31 |
26% |
32% |
|
32 |
4% |
6% |
Majority |
33 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
6% |
98% |
|
27 |
15% |
92% |
|
28 |
20% |
78% |
|
29 |
26% |
57% |
Median |
30 |
15% |
31% |
|
31 |
12% |
16% |
|
32 |
4% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
24 |
7% |
99.2% |
|
25 |
18% |
93% |
|
26 |
19% |
74% |
|
27 |
23% |
55% |
Median |
28 |
24% |
32% |
|
29 |
6% |
8% |
|
30 |
2% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
7% |
98% |
|
25 |
21% |
91% |
|
26 |
31% |
70% |
|
27 |
21% |
39% |
Last Result, Median |
28 |
14% |
19% |
|
29 |
4% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.5% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
7% |
98% |
|
25 |
25% |
91% |
|
26 |
24% |
66% |
Median |
27 |
27% |
42% |
|
28 |
10% |
15% |
|
29 |
4% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
10% |
97% |
|
24 |
17% |
88% |
Last Result |
25 |
28% |
71% |
Median |
26 |
34% |
43% |
|
27 |
6% |
9% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
8% |
98% |
|
22 |
18% |
90% |
|
23 |
21% |
71% |
|
24 |
27% |
50% |
Median |
25 |
16% |
23% |
Last Result |
26 |
5% |
7% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
21 |
6% |
96% |
|
22 |
19% |
91% |
|
23 |
27% |
72% |
|
24 |
22% |
44% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
17% |
22% |
|
26 |
4% |
5% |
|
27 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
20 |
14% |
96% |
|
21 |
28% |
82% |
|
22 |
23% |
55% |
Median |
23 |
16% |
32% |
|
24 |
11% |
16% |
|
25 |
5% |
5% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
6% |
99.5% |
|
17 |
13% |
93% |
|
18 |
20% |
80% |
|
19 |
32% |
60% |
Median |
20 |
18% |
28% |
|
21 |
6% |
10% |
|
22 |
3% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
15 |
17% |
97% |
|
16 |
31% |
79% |
|
17 |
28% |
48% |
Median |
18 |
14% |
20% |
Last Result |
19 |
6% |
6% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
11 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
12 |
19% |
93% |
|
13 |
23% |
73% |
|
14 |
34% |
51% |
Median |
15 |
12% |
17% |
|
16 |
4% |
5% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
12 |
20% |
95% |
|
13 |
29% |
75% |
|
14 |
34% |
46% |
Median |
15 |
10% |
12% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
10 |
12% |
99.2% |
|
11 |
25% |
87% |
|
12 |
35% |
62% |
Median |
13 |
16% |
26% |
|
14 |
10% |
11% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18–20 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1034
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.40%