Opinion Poll by MMR, 18–20 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 27.8% 26.0–29.6% 25.5–30.1% 25.1–30.6% 24.3–31.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.9% 13.6–16.4% 13.2–16.8% 12.8–17.2% 12.2–17.9%
Píratar 9.2% 10.3% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.0% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.8% 8.5–12.1% 8.0–12.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.6–11.6% 8.3–11.9% 7.8–12.6%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.5% 8.2–11.8% 7.7–12.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.7–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.8% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 20 18–21 18–21 17–22 17–23
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 9–12 8–12 8–12
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Viðreisn 4 6 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
17 3% 99.5%  
18 8% 97%  
19 37% 89%  
20 22% 52% Median
21 25% 30%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.6% 0.9%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100% Last Result
8 3% 99.7%  
9 23% 97%  
10 50% 74% Median
11 19% 25%  
12 6% 6%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 4% 99.8%  
6 30% 95% Last Result
7 47% 65% Median
8 16% 18%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 39% 96%  
7 31% 57% Last Result, Median
8 17% 27%  
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 11% 99.9%  
6 37% 89%  
7 45% 52% Median
8 6% 7%  
9 0.3% 0.5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100% Last Result
5 8% 99.8%  
6 53% 92% Median
7 29% 40%  
8 11% 11%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 13% 99.9%  
5 46% 87% Median
6 34% 42%  
7 7% 8%  
8 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 36%  
2 0% 36%  
3 30% 36%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 32 64% 30–34 29–34 29–35 28–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 53% 30–33 29–34 29–34 28–35
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 30 13% 28–32 27–32 26–33 25–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 30 6% 28–31 28–32 27–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 29 5% 27–31 26–31 26–32 25–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 27 0% 25–28 24–29 24–30 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 22–28
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 24 0% 21–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 23 0% 22–25 21–26 20–26 19–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–25
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 19 0% 17–21 16–21 16–22 16–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–18 15–19 14–19 13–19
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 14 0% 12–15 11–15 11–16 11–17
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 13 0% 12–15 11–15 11–15 10–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 10–14 10–14 10–14 9–14

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.9%  
29 5% 99.0%  
30 7% 94%  
31 23% 87% Last Result
32 27% 64% Median, Majority
33 21% 37%  
34 12% 16%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 1.3% 99.9%  
29 9% 98.6%  
30 12% 90%  
31 25% 78%  
32 22% 53% Median, Majority
33 24% 31%  
34 5% 7%  
35 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 3% 99.3%  
27 4% 96%  
28 13% 92% Last Result
29 23% 79%  
30 22% 56% Median
31 21% 34%  
32 9% 13% Majority
33 3% 4%  
34 1.4% 1.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.0%  
28 12% 96%  
29 26% 84%  
30 26% 58% Median
31 26% 32%  
32 4% 6% Majority
33 1.4% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 6% 98%  
27 15% 92%  
28 20% 78%  
29 26% 57% Median
30 15% 31%  
31 12% 16%  
32 4% 5% Majority
33 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
24 7% 99.2%  
25 18% 93%  
26 19% 74%  
27 23% 55% Median
28 24% 32%  
29 6% 8%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 7% 98%  
25 21% 91%  
26 31% 70%  
27 21% 39% Last Result, Median
28 14% 19%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.5% 99.8%  
24 7% 98%  
25 25% 91%  
26 24% 66% Median
27 27% 42%  
28 10% 15%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 10% 97%  
24 17% 88% Last Result
25 28% 71% Median
26 34% 43%  
27 6% 9%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 2% 99.8%  
21 8% 98%  
22 18% 90%  
23 21% 71%  
24 27% 50% Median
25 16% 23% Last Result
26 5% 7%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.4%  
21 6% 96%  
22 19% 91%  
23 27% 72%  
24 22% 44% Last Result, Median
25 17% 22%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.9% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100%  
19 3% 99.2%  
20 14% 96%  
21 28% 82%  
22 23% 55% Median
23 16% 32%  
24 11% 16%  
25 5% 5%  
26 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 6% 99.5%  
17 13% 93%  
18 20% 80%  
19 32% 60% Median
20 18% 28%  
21 6% 10%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.3%  
15 17% 97%  
16 31% 79%  
17 28% 48% Median
18 14% 20% Last Result
19 6% 6%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 7% 99.6%  
12 19% 93%  
13 23% 73%  
14 34% 51% Median
15 12% 17%  
16 4% 5%  
17 1.0% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 5% 99.4%  
12 20% 95%  
13 29% 75%  
14 34% 46% Median
15 10% 12%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100%  
10 12% 99.2%  
11 25% 87%  
12 35% 62% Median
13 16% 26%  
14 10% 11%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations