Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2–29 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.5% |
22.8–24.2% |
22.6–24.4% |
22.4–24.6% |
22.1–25.0% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.1% |
14.5–15.7% |
14.3–15.9% |
14.2–16.0% |
13.9–16.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.3% |
12.7–13.9% |
12.6–14.1% |
12.5–14.2% |
12.2–14.5% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
11.2% |
10.7–11.8% |
10.5–11.9% |
10.4–12.1% |
10.2–12.3% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
11.1% |
10.6–11.7% |
10.4–11.8% |
10.3–11.9% |
10.1–12.2% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.2% |
9.7–10.7% |
9.6–10.9% |
9.4–11.0% |
9.2–11.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.1% |
7.7–8.6% |
7.5–8.7% |
7.4–8.8% |
7.2–9.1% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.2% |
3.9–4.6% |
3.8–4.7% |
3.7–4.8% |
3.6–4.9% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.2% |
2.9–3.5% |
2.8–3.6% |
2.8–3.7% |
2.7–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
7% |
100% |
|
16 |
83% |
93% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
10% |
10% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
10 |
58% |
99.2% |
Median |
11 |
41% |
41% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
12% |
100% |
|
9 |
78% |
88% |
Median |
10 |
10% |
10% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
46% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
36% |
54% |
Median |
9 |
18% |
18% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
53% |
99.9% |
Median |
8 |
47% |
47% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
11% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
88% |
89% |
Median |
8 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
51% |
100% |
Median |
6 |
49% |
49% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar |
28 |
34 |
99.9% |
33–34 |
33–34 |
32–35 |
32–35 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
33 |
98% |
32–33 |
32–34 |
32–34 |
31–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
31 |
5% |
30–31 |
29–31 |
29–32 |
29–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0.1% |
29–30 |
29–30 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
26 |
0% |
26–27 |
25–27 |
25–27 |
24–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
26–27 |
25–27 |
25–27 |
25–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–26 |
23–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
23–24 |
23–24 |
23–25 |
22–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
21–22 |
20–22 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
19 |
0% |
19–20 |
19–20 |
18–20 |
18–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
15–18 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–16 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
14–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
14 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–15 |
14–15 |
13–16 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
3% |
99.9% |
Majority |
33 |
22% |
97% |
Median |
34 |
70% |
74% |
|
35 |
5% |
5% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
2% |
100% |
|
32 |
43% |
98% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
49% |
55% |
Last Result |
34 |
6% |
6% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
6% |
100% |
|
30 |
43% |
94% |
Median |
31 |
46% |
51% |
|
32 |
5% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
70% |
95% |
Median |
30 |
22% |
26% |
|
31 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
16% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
60% |
83% |
Median |
28 |
19% |
23% |
|
29 |
5% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.7% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
6% |
99.3% |
|
26 |
59% |
93% |
Median |
27 |
34% |
35% |
|
28 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
44% |
94% |
Median |
27 |
49% |
49% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
2% |
100% |
|
24 |
37% |
98% |
Median |
25 |
33% |
61% |
|
26 |
28% |
28% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
17% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
68% |
83% |
Median |
26 |
14% |
16% |
|
27 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
42% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
24 |
42% |
58% |
Median |
25 |
15% |
16% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
23 |
53% |
99.3% |
Median |
24 |
42% |
46% |
|
25 |
4% |
4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
12% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
62% |
88% |
Median |
23 |
21% |
26% |
|
24 |
5% |
5% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
6% |
100% |
|
21 |
39% |
94% |
Median |
22 |
51% |
55% |
|
23 |
3% |
3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
19 |
58% |
97% |
Median |
20 |
37% |
39% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
10% |
100% |
|
16 |
32% |
90% |
|
17 |
39% |
58% |
Median |
18 |
15% |
19% |
Last Result |
19 |
3% |
3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
15 |
16% |
99.3% |
|
16 |
78% |
83% |
Median |
17 |
5% |
6% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
2% |
100% |
|
14 |
50% |
98% |
Median |
15 |
47% |
48% |
|
16 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2–29 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 5673
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.90%