Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2–29 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.5% 22.8–24.2% 22.6–24.4% 22.4–24.6% 22.1–25.0%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.1% 14.5–15.7% 14.3–15.9% 14.2–16.0% 13.9–16.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.3% 12.7–13.9% 12.6–14.1% 12.5–14.2% 12.2–14.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 11.2% 10.7–11.8% 10.5–11.9% 10.4–12.1% 10.2–12.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.1% 10.6–11.7% 10.4–11.8% 10.3–11.9% 10.1–12.2%
Píratar 9.2% 10.2% 9.7–10.7% 9.6–10.9% 9.4–11.0% 9.2–11.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.1% 7.7–8.6% 7.5–8.7% 7.4–8.8% 7.2–9.1%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.2% 3.9–4.6% 3.8–4.7% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–4.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.2% 2.9–3.5% 2.8–3.6% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 16 15–17 15–17 15–17
Samfylkingin 7 10 10–11 10–11 10–11 9–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Viðreisn 4 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Píratar 6 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 7% 100%  
16 83% 93% Last Result, Median
17 10% 10%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.8% 100%  
10 58% 99.2% Median
11 41% 41%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 12% 100%  
9 78% 88% Median
10 10% 10%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 46% 100% Last Result
8 36% 54% Median
9 18% 18%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 53% 99.9% Median
8 47% 47%  
9 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 11% 100% Last Result
7 88% 89% Median
8 1.3% 1.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 51% 100% Median
6 49% 49%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar 28 34 99.9% 33–34 33–34 32–35 32–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 33 98% 32–33 32–34 32–34 31–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 5% 30–31 29–31 29–32 29–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 0.1% 29–30 29–30 28–31 28–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 27 0% 26–28 26–28 26–29 26–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 26 0% 26–27 25–27 25–27 24–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 26–27 25–27 25–27 25–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 24–26 24–26 24–26 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 24–26 24–26 24–26 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 23–24 23–24 23–25 22–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–24 21–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 21–22 20–22 20–23 20–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 19–20 19–20 18–20 18–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 17 0% 16–18 15–18 15–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 16 0% 15–16 15–17 15–17 14–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 14–15 14–15 14–15 13–16

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 3% 99.9% Majority
33 22% 97% Median
34 70% 74%  
35 5% 5%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 2% 100%  
32 43% 98% Median, Majority
33 49% 55% Last Result
34 6% 6%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 6% 100%  
30 43% 94% Median
31 46% 51%  
32 5% 5% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 5% 99.9%  
29 70% 95% Median
30 22% 26%  
31 3% 3% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100% Last Result
26 16% 99.7%  
27 60% 83% Median
28 19% 23%  
29 5% 5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.7% 100% Last Result
25 6% 99.3%  
26 59% 93% Median
27 34% 35%  
28 0.8% 0.8%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.1% 100%  
25 6% 99.9%  
26 44% 94% Median
27 49% 49%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 2% 100%  
24 37% 98% Median
25 33% 61%  
26 28% 28% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 17% 99.9%  
25 68% 83% Median
26 14% 16%  
27 1.4% 1.5% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 42% 99.7% Last Result
24 42% 58% Median
25 15% 16%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.7% 100%  
23 53% 99.3% Median
24 42% 46%  
25 4% 4%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 12% 99.9%  
22 62% 88% Median
23 21% 26%  
24 5% 5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 6% 100%  
21 39% 94% Median
22 51% 55%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 3% 99.9% Last Result
19 58% 97% Median
20 37% 39%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 10% 100%  
16 32% 90%  
17 39% 58% Median
18 15% 19% Last Result
19 3% 3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.7% 100%  
15 16% 99.3%  
16 78% 83% Median
17 5% 6% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 50% 98% Median
15 47% 48%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations