Opinion Poll by MMR, 3–7 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.1% 12.7–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.4–17.1%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.3% 11.0–13.7% 10.7–14.1% 10.4–14.4% 9.8–15.2%
Píratar 9.2% 12.2% 10.9–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.3% 9.7–15.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.7% 9.6–12.1% 9.2–12.5% 9.0–12.8% 8.4–13.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.5–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–19
Samfylkingin 7 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 8–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 7–10
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0–3
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 9% 97%  
16 32% 88% Last Result
17 31% 56% Median
18 23% 26%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100% Last Result
8 12% 99.7%  
9 32% 88%  
10 42% 56% Median
11 13% 14%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 10% 99.6%  
8 43% 89% Median
9 38% 46%  
10 8% 8%  
11 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100% Last Result
7 12% 99.4%  
8 42% 88% Median
9 41% 46%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 9% 99.7%  
7 42% 90% Last Result, Median
8 30% 48%  
9 14% 18%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 8% 99.9%  
6 51% 92% Median
7 35% 41%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 32% 99.0%  
6 50% 67% Median
7 15% 17%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0.8% 0.9%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0.8% 0.8%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 33 86% 31–34 31–35 30–35 29–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 31 47% 30–33 30–34 29–34 28–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 13% 29–32 28–32 28–33 27–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 31% 30–33 29–33 28–33 28–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 26 0% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–28 23–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 24–27 23–27 22–27 22–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–25 21–25 21–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 21–24 21–24 20–25 20–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 20–24 20–24 19–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–18 15–18 14–19 14–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 16 0% 15–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 0.9% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.0%  
31 11% 97%  
32 23% 86% Median, Majority
33 37% 63%  
34 16% 25%  
35 7% 9%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 19% 97%  
31 32% 78% Median
32 26% 47% Majority
33 15% 21% Last Result
34 5% 6%  
35 0.9% 1.0%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.8%  
28 8% 98%  
29 17% 90%  
30 38% 74% Median
31 23% 36% Last Result
32 11% 13% Majority
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 0.7%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 7% 97%  
30 24% 90%  
31 35% 66% Median
32 16% 31% Majority
33 13% 14%  
34 1.1% 1.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9%  
24 5% 99.1% Last Result
25 13% 94%  
26 33% 81% Median
27 34% 48%  
28 10% 15%  
29 5% 5%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9% Last Result
24 5% 98%  
25 17% 93%  
26 34% 76%  
27 26% 42% Median
28 14% 16%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 3% 99.7%  
24 13% 97%  
25 28% 83% Last Result, Median
26 33% 55%  
27 17% 23%  
28 5% 5%  
29 0.7% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 6% 98%  
23 20% 92% Last Result
24 22% 72% Median
25 37% 50%  
26 9% 12%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.8% 0.8%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 3% 99.8%  
23 6% 97%  
24 20% 91%  
25 32% 71% Median
26 26% 39%  
27 11% 13% Last Result
28 1.4% 1.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.0% 99.8%  
22 7% 98.8%  
23 37% 92%  
24 26% 55% Median
25 16% 29%  
26 10% 13% Last Result
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.9% Last Result
21 7% 98.6%  
22 22% 91%  
23 34% 69% Median
24 24% 35%  
25 9% 11%  
26 1.2% 1.4%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 3% 99.6%  
21 15% 96%  
22 29% 81%  
23 30% 52% Median
24 18% 22% Last Result
25 3% 4%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 10% 98%  
21 25% 88% Median
22 34% 64%  
23 20% 29%  
24 7% 9%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 6% 99.4%  
17 23% 93%  
18 41% 71% Last Result, Median
19 20% 30%  
20 8% 10%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 6% 97%  
16 26% 91% Median
17 40% 65% Last Result
18 20% 25%  
19 4% 5%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.9%  
14 7% 98.9%  
15 24% 92% Median
16 35% 68%  
17 22% 33%  
18 10% 11% Last Result
19 1.1% 1.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 21% 97%  
14 32% 76% Median
15 35% 45%  
16 7% 10%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations