Opinion Poll by MMR, 15–17 April 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.6% |
21.0–24.4% |
20.6–24.8% |
20.2–25.3% |
19.5–26.1% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.1% |
11.9–14.6% |
11.5–15.0% |
11.2–15.3% |
10.7–16.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.3% |
11.1–13.7% |
10.7–14.1% |
10.4–14.4% |
9.9–15.1% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.4% |
9.3–11.7% |
8.9–12.0% |
8.7–12.4% |
8.2–13.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.0% |
8.9–11.3% |
8.6–11.6% |
8.3–11.9% |
7.8–12.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.8% |
8.7–11.1% |
8.4–11.4% |
8.1–11.8% |
7.7–12.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
9.5% |
8.4–10.8% |
8.1–11.1% |
7.9–11.4% |
7.4–12.1% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.6% |
4.8–6.6% |
4.6–6.9% |
4.4–7.2% |
4.0–7.7% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.7% |
3.9–5.6% |
3.7–5.9% |
3.5–6.1% |
3.2–6.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
2% |
100% |
|
14 |
10% |
98% |
|
15 |
23% |
88% |
|
16 |
31% |
65% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
14% |
34% |
|
18 |
19% |
20% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
7% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
8 |
30% |
92% |
|
9 |
42% |
62% |
Median |
10 |
19% |
20% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
12% |
98% |
|
8 |
63% |
85% |
Median |
9 |
17% |
22% |
|
10 |
5% |
5% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
7% |
100% |
|
6 |
29% |
93% |
|
7 |
51% |
65% |
Median |
8 |
12% |
14% |
|
9 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
42% |
94% |
|
7 |
44% |
53% |
Median |
8 |
8% |
9% |
|
9 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
9% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
43% |
91% |
Median |
7 |
29% |
48% |
|
8 |
18% |
19% |
Last Result |
9 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
5 |
17% |
99.5% |
|
6 |
45% |
83% |
Median |
7 |
30% |
38% |
Last Result |
8 |
3% |
8% |
|
9 |
4% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
20% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
80% |
|
2 |
0% |
80% |
|
3 |
41% |
80% |
Median |
4 |
37% |
39% |
|
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
67% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
33% |
|
2 |
0% |
33% |
|
3 |
30% |
33% |
|
4 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
30 |
22% |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–33 |
26–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
29 |
7% |
27–31 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
5% |
27–31 |
27–32 |
26–32 |
25–33 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
29 |
3% |
26–31 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
24–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
22–27 |
22–28 |
21–28 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
23 |
0% |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
18–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
18–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–22 |
16–23 |
16–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–18 |
12–19 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
12–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
13 |
0% |
12–15 |
11–15 |
11–16 |
10–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
13 |
0% |
11–15 |
11–15 |
11–16 |
10–17 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
2% |
98% |
|
28 |
6% |
96% |
Last Result |
29 |
26% |
90% |
|
30 |
25% |
64% |
|
31 |
17% |
39% |
Median |
32 |
15% |
22% |
Majority |
33 |
5% |
7% |
|
34 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
13% |
98% |
|
28 |
13% |
85% |
|
29 |
22% |
72% |
Median |
30 |
23% |
50% |
|
31 |
20% |
26% |
|
32 |
5% |
7% |
Majority |
33 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
27 |
17% |
96% |
|
28 |
17% |
79% |
Median |
29 |
19% |
61% |
|
30 |
27% |
43% |
|
31 |
10% |
15% |
Last Result |
32 |
5% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
26 |
9% |
96% |
|
27 |
21% |
87% |
|
28 |
16% |
66% |
Median |
29 |
22% |
50% |
|
30 |
17% |
29% |
|
31 |
8% |
12% |
|
32 |
3% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
5% |
98% |
|
23 |
14% |
94% |
Last Result |
24 |
20% |
80% |
|
25 |
27% |
60% |
Median |
26 |
18% |
33% |
|
27 |
12% |
15% |
|
28 |
3% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
22 |
14% |
95% |
|
23 |
32% |
80% |
|
24 |
24% |
49% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
14% |
24% |
|
26 |
8% |
11% |
|
27 |
2% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
6% |
98.7% |
|
21 |
14% |
93% |
|
22 |
24% |
79% |
Median |
23 |
24% |
55% |
|
24 |
23% |
31% |
Last Result |
25 |
6% |
8% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
10% |
98% |
|
21 |
18% |
88% |
|
22 |
18% |
70% |
Median |
23 |
28% |
52% |
Last Result |
24 |
17% |
24% |
|
25 |
6% |
7% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
21 |
18% |
96% |
|
22 |
18% |
77% |
|
23 |
27% |
59% |
Median |
24 |
18% |
32% |
|
25 |
13% |
14% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
6% |
98% |
Last Result |
21 |
14% |
92% |
|
22 |
26% |
78% |
|
23 |
22% |
53% |
Median |
24 |
21% |
30% |
|
25 |
9% |
10% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
27 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
20 |
10% |
97% |
|
21 |
25% |
88% |
|
22 |
23% |
62% |
Median |
23 |
22% |
40% |
|
24 |
14% |
18% |
|
25 |
3% |
4% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
20 |
16% |
96% |
|
21 |
24% |
80% |
|
22 |
19% |
56% |
Median |
23 |
25% |
37% |
|
24 |
8% |
12% |
|
25 |
3% |
4% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
4% |
97% |
|
18 |
15% |
93% |
|
19 |
25% |
77% |
Median |
20 |
20% |
52% |
|
21 |
23% |
32% |
|
22 |
5% |
10% |
|
23 |
3% |
4% |
|
24 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
14 |
17% |
97% |
|
15 |
32% |
81% |
|
16 |
29% |
49% |
Median |
17 |
15% |
20% |
|
18 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
9% |
98% |
|
14 |
22% |
89% |
|
15 |
45% |
67% |
Median |
16 |
15% |
22% |
|
17 |
6% |
7% |
Last Result |
18 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
11 |
8% |
99.4% |
|
12 |
16% |
91% |
|
13 |
30% |
76% |
Median |
14 |
29% |
46% |
|
15 |
13% |
17% |
|
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
11 |
10% |
99.0% |
|
12 |
24% |
89% |
|
13 |
26% |
65% |
Median |
14 |
28% |
39% |
|
15 |
7% |
10% |
|
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
18 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 15–17 April 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1051
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.24%