Opinion Poll by MMR, 15–17 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.6% 21.0–24.4% 20.6–24.8% 20.2–25.3% 19.5–26.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.1% 11.9–14.6% 11.5–15.0% 11.2–15.3% 10.7–16.0%
Píratar 9.2% 12.3% 11.1–13.7% 10.7–14.1% 10.4–14.4% 9.9–15.1%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.4% 9.3–11.7% 8.9–12.0% 8.7–12.4% 8.2–13.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.3–11.9% 7.8–12.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.4% 8.1–11.8% 7.7–12.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.1% 7.9–11.4% 7.4–12.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.6–6.9% 4.4–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.7% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.2–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 14–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–7 5–8 5–9 5–9
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 10% 98%  
15 23% 88%  
16 31% 65% Last Result, Median
17 14% 34%  
18 19% 20%  
19 0.9% 0.9%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 7% 99.8% Last Result
8 30% 92%  
9 42% 62% Median
10 19% 20%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100% Last Result
7 12% 98%  
8 63% 85% Median
9 17% 22%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 7% 100%  
6 29% 93%  
7 51% 65% Median
8 12% 14%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 5% 99.9%  
6 42% 94%  
7 44% 53% Median
8 8% 9%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 9% 99.7%  
6 43% 91% Median
7 29% 48%  
8 18% 19% Last Result
9 1.1% 1.4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 17% 99.5%  
6 45% 83% Median
7 30% 38% Last Result
8 3% 8%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 41% 80% Median
4 37% 39%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Median
1 0.1% 33%  
2 0% 33%  
3 30% 33%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 30 22% 28–32 28–33 27–33 26–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 29 7% 27–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 5% 27–31 27–32 26–32 25–33
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 29 3% 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 23–27 22–27 22–28 21–28
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 23 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 20–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 21–25 21–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–24 20–24 19–25 18–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 20–24 20–24 19–25 18–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 20 0% 18–21 17–22 16–23 16–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 15 0% 14–17 14–17 13–18 12–19
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 15 0% 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 11–15 11–15 11–16 10–17

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 2% 99.6%  
27 2% 98%  
28 6% 96% Last Result
29 26% 90%  
30 25% 64%  
31 17% 39% Median
32 15% 22% Majority
33 5% 7%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.7%  
27 13% 98%  
28 13% 85%  
29 22% 72% Median
30 23% 50%  
31 20% 26%  
32 5% 7% Majority
33 1.5% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.8%  
26 3% 98.6%  
27 17% 96%  
28 17% 79% Median
29 19% 61%  
30 27% 43%  
31 10% 15% Last Result
32 5% 5% Majority
33 0.7% 0.7%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 4% 99.3%  
26 9% 96%  
27 21% 87%  
28 16% 66% Median
29 22% 50%  
30 17% 29%  
31 8% 12%  
32 3% 3% Majority
33 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.9%  
22 5% 98%  
23 14% 94% Last Result
24 20% 80%  
25 27% 60% Median
26 18% 33%  
27 12% 15%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.9%  
21 4% 98.8%  
22 14% 95%  
23 32% 80%  
24 24% 49% Last Result, Median
25 14% 24%  
26 8% 11%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.8%  
20 6% 98.7%  
21 14% 93%  
22 24% 79% Median
23 24% 55%  
24 23% 31% Last Result
25 6% 8%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 10% 98%  
21 18% 88%  
22 18% 70% Median
23 28% 52% Last Result
24 17% 24%  
25 6% 7%  
26 0.9% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.0%  
21 18% 96%  
22 18% 77%  
23 27% 59% Median
24 18% 32%  
25 13% 14%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 6% 98% Last Result
21 14% 92%  
22 26% 78%  
23 22% 53% Median
24 21% 30%  
25 9% 10%  
26 0.7% 0.7%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.3%  
20 10% 97%  
21 25% 88%  
22 23% 62% Median
23 22% 40%  
24 14% 18%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.9%  
19 3% 98.8%  
20 16% 96%  
21 24% 80%  
22 19% 56% Median
23 25% 37%  
24 8% 12%  
25 3% 4% Last Result
26 0.7% 0.9%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 4% 97%  
18 15% 93%  
19 25% 77% Median
20 20% 52%  
21 23% 32%  
22 5% 10%  
23 3% 4%  
24 1.1% 1.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.8% 100%  
13 2% 99.2%  
14 17% 97%  
15 32% 81%  
16 29% 49% Median
17 15% 20%  
18 4% 4% Last Result
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.8%  
13 9% 98%  
14 22% 89%  
15 45% 67% Median
16 15% 22%  
17 6% 7% Last Result
18 1.1% 1.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 8% 99.4%  
12 16% 91%  
13 30% 76% Median
14 29% 46%  
15 13% 17%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.6% 0.6%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.9% 100%  
11 10% 99.0%  
12 24% 89%  
13 26% 65% Median
14 28% 39%  
15 7% 10%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.7% 0.8%  
18 0% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations