Opinion Poll by Gallup, 30 March–3 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.2% 24.4–25.9% 24.3–26.1% 24.1–26.2% 23.8–26.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.8% 13.3–14.4% 13.1–14.6% 13.0–14.7% 12.7–15.0%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.8% 13.3–14.4% 13.1–14.6% 13.0–14.7% 12.7–15.0%
Píratar 9.2% 10.4% 9.9–10.9% 9.8–11.1% 9.7–11.2% 9.5–11.4%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.0% 9.5–10.5% 9.4–10.7% 9.3–10.8% 9.1–11.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.9% 9.4–10.4% 9.3–10.6% 9.2–10.7% 9.0–10.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.4% 8.0–8.9% 7.8–9.0% 7.8–9.1% 7.5–9.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.4% 4.1–4.8% 4.0–4.9% 3.9–5.0% 3.8–5.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.0% 3.7–4.3% 3.6–4.4% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 17–18 17–18 17–19 17–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–10
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0–3
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100% Last Result
17 12% 99.7%  
18 84% 88% Median
19 4% 4%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 42% 100%  
10 58% 58% Median
11 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 1.4% 100%  
9 39% 98.6%  
10 59% 60% Median
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 20% 100% Last Result
7 68% 80% Median
8 11% 11%  
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 17% 100%  
7 81% 83% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 35% 100%  
7 64% 65% Last Result, Median
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 53% 100% Median
6 47% 47%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Median
1 0% 1.0%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 33 99.9% 32–34 32–34 32–34 32–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 33 98.6% 32–34 32–34 32–34 31–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 31 39% 30–32 30–32 30–32 29–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 0.5% 29–31 29–31 29–31 28–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 27 0% 27–28 27–28 27–29 26–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0% 27–28 27–28 26–28 26–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–27 24–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–27 25–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 24–25 24–25 24–26 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 25 0% 24–25 24–25 24–26 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 25 0% 24–25 24–25 24–25 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 23–24 22–24 22–24 22–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–22 21–23 20–23 20–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 18–20 18–20 18–20 18–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 15–17 15–18 15–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 15–16 14–16 14–16 14–16

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 15% 99.9% Majority
33 73% 85% Median
34 12% 12%  
35 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 1.3% 99.8%  
32 35% 98.6% Majority
33 33% 64%  
34 30% 30% Median
35 0.6% 0.6%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.6% 100%  
30 10% 99.4%  
31 51% 90%  
32 38% 39% Median, Majority
33 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.7% 100%  
29 31% 99.3%  
30 33% 69% Median
31 35% 35% Last Result
32 0.5% 0.5% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 2% 100%  
27 49% 98% Last Result
28 46% 49% Median
29 3% 3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 3% 100%  
27 46% 97%  
28 51% 52% Median
29 0.9% 0.9%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.0% 99.9%  
25 30% 99.0% Last Result
26 56% 69%  
27 13% 14% Median
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100% Last Result
25 29% 99.5%  
26 34% 70%  
27 35% 36% Median
28 1.4% 1.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.9% 100%  
24 37% 99.0%  
25 59% 62% Median
26 3% 3% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 2% 100% Last Result
24 41% 98%  
25 54% 56% Median
26 3% 3%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 2% 100%  
24 22% 98%  
25 74% 76% Median
26 2% 2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 8% 100%  
23 46% 92% Median
24 45% 46% Last Result
25 0.8% 0.8%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 4% 100%  
21 27% 96%  
22 63% 69% Median
23 6% 6%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 12% 99.9% Last Result
19 58% 87%  
20 29% 29% Median
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 17% 100%  
16 22% 83%  
17 54% 60% Last Result, Median
18 6% 6%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 11% 100%  
16 55% 89%  
17 34% 34% Median
18 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 5% 100%  
15 84% 95% Median
16 11% 11%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations