Opinion Poll by MMR, 19–25 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.5% 21.9–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.3% 20.2–27.1%
Píratar 9.2% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.8–16.5% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.2% 11.3–15.5% 10.7–16.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.4% 8.9–14.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.8% 8.5–13.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.6% 8.3–13.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.1% 4.7–8.7%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Píratar 6 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–12
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 8–11 7–11 7–11
Viðreisn 4 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–6
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0–1 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 16% 99.5%  
16 34% 84% Last Result
17 24% 50% Median
18 18% 26%  
19 7% 8%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 29% 97%  
10 42% 68% Median
11 22% 26%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100% Last Result
8 18% 97%  
9 46% 78% Median
10 27% 32%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 6% 99.9%  
7 32% 94%  
8 46% 62% Median
9 15% 16%  
10 1.4% 1.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 14% 99.6%  
7 25% 86% Last Result
8 35% 61% Median
9 21% 25%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100%  
6 21% 98.9%  
7 45% 78% Median
8 26% 33%  
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 13% 98%  
4 61% 85% Median
5 23% 25%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 13%  
2 0% 11%  
3 10% 11%  
4 1.4% 1.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0.4% 3%  
2 0% 2%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 34 94% 32–36 31–36 31–37 29–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 3% 27–30 26–31 26–32 25–32
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 28 0.5% 26–30 26–30 25–31 24–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 28 0.6% 26–30 26–30 25–31 25–32
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 25–28 24–28 23–29 22–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 24–28 24–28 23–29 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 22–26 22–26 22–26 21–27
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 19–23 19–23 19–23 18–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 20 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 19 0% 17–21 17–21 16–22 16–22
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–18 14–18 14–19 13–19
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 15 0% 13–16 13–17 12–17 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 11 0% 10–13 10–13 9–14 9–15

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 1.4% 99.9%  
30 1.0% 98.6%  
31 4% 98%  
32 8% 94% Majority
33 20% 86%  
34 26% 66% Median
35 26% 40%  
36 10% 14%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.9%  
26 6% 98.8%  
27 16% 93%  
28 27% 77%  
29 26% 50% Median
30 15% 24%  
31 7% 10% Last Result
32 2% 3% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.3%  
26 9% 96%  
27 18% 87%  
28 27% 69% Median
29 24% 42%  
30 14% 19%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.5% 0.5% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 2% 99.6%  
26 12% 97%  
27 22% 85%  
28 29% 63% Median
29 19% 34%  
30 11% 15%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.5% 0.6% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 1.3% 100%  
23 2% 98.7%  
24 7% 97% Last Result
25 17% 90%  
26 29% 73% Median
27 23% 43%  
28 17% 20%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.8% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 3% 99.6% Last Result
24 13% 96%  
25 25% 83%  
26 27% 58% Median
27 20% 31%  
28 8% 11%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 1.2% 100%  
22 7% 98.7%  
23 16% 92% Last Result
24 30% 76%  
25 22% 46% Median
26 15% 24%  
27 7% 9%  
28 1.5% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.8% 99.9%  
22 6% 99.1%  
23 19% 93%  
24 29% 75%  
25 25% 46% Median
26 15% 22%  
27 5% 7%  
28 1.3% 1.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 15% 98%  
23 25% 83%  
24 24% 58% Median
25 21% 34%  
26 11% 13%  
27 2% 2% Last Result
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.1%  
22 12% 96%  
23 12% 84%  
24 34% 72% Median
25 23% 39% Last Result
26 13% 15%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.5% 99.7%  
19 12% 98%  
20 33% 86%  
21 24% 53% Median
22 18% 29%  
23 9% 11%  
24 2% 2% Last Result
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 4% 98%  
19 18% 94%  
20 29% 76% Median
21 26% 46%  
22 14% 21%  
23 6% 6%  
24 0.6% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 3% 99.8%  
17 10% 97%  
18 21% 86%  
19 26% 65% Median
20 27% 40%  
21 8% 12%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 7% 99.2%  
16 21% 93%  
17 36% 71% Last Result, Median
18 22% 35%  
19 11% 14%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 4% 98%  
15 18% 94%  
16 33% 76% Median
17 25% 43%  
18 15% 17% Last Result
19 3% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 3% 99.9%  
13 11% 97%  
14 18% 85%  
15 31% 67% Median
16 27% 36%  
17 8% 9%  
18 1.5% 1.5% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 2% 99.7%  
10 23% 97%  
11 33% 74% Median
12 28% 41%  
13 10% 13%  
14 1.3% 3%  
15 1.2% 1.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

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Opinion Poll

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