Opinion Poll by Gallup, 4 May–1 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.7% 23.9–25.4% 23.7–25.6% 23.6–25.8% 23.2–26.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.4% 13.8–15.0% 13.7–15.2% 13.6–15.3% 13.3–15.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 14.3% 13.7–14.9% 13.6–15.1% 13.4–15.2% 13.2–15.5%
Píratar 9.2% 11.0% 10.5–11.6% 10.4–11.7% 10.2–11.9% 10.0–12.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.4% 9.9–11.0% 9.8–11.1% 9.7–11.2% 9.4–11.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.7% 9.2–10.2% 9.1–10.4% 9.0–10.5% 8.8–10.8%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.7% 7.3–8.2% 7.2–8.3% 7.1–8.4% 6.9–8.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.4% 4.1–4.8% 4.0–4.9% 3.9–5.0% 3.7–5.2%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.3% 3.0–3.6% 2.9–3.7% 2.9–3.8% 2.7–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 17–18 17–18 17–18 16–18
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 10 10 10 9–11
Píratar 6 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 7 7 7–8 6–8
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5 5 5 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0–3
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100% Last Result
17 78% 98% Median
18 21% 21%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 18% 100%  
10 82% 82% Median
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.2% 100%  
10 98% 98.8% Median
11 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 87% 99.9% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.1% 100%  
7 95% 98.9% Last Result, Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 21% 100%  
7 79% 79% Median
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.9% 100%  
5 98% 99.1% Median
6 1.0% 1.0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 34 99.8% 33–34 33–34 33–34 32–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 98% 32–33 32–33 32–33 31–33
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 82% 31–32 31–32 31–33 31–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 0% 29–30 29–30 29–30 27–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 27 0% 27–28 27–28 27–28 26–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 27 0% 26–27 26–27 26–28 26–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 26–27 26–28 26–28 26–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 27 27–28 26–28 26–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 24–25 24–25 24–25 24–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 24–25 24–25 24–25 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 22–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 22 22 22–23 21–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 22–23 22–23 22–23 21–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–20 19–20 19–20 19–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 17 0% 17 17 17–18 16–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 17–18 17–18 17–18 16–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 15 15 15 14–16

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.8% Majority
33 25% 99.4%  
34 74% 75% Median
35 0.6% 0.6%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 2% 99.8%  
32 77% 98% Median, Majority
33 21% 21%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 18% 99.7%  
32 78% 82% Median, Majority
33 3% 3% Last Result
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.8% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.2%  
29 74% 98% Median
30 24% 24%  
31 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 77% 98% Last Result, Median
28 21% 21%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100% Last Result
26 19% 99.9%  
27 78% 81% Median
28 3% 3%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.2% 100%  
26 14% 99.8%  
27 76% 86% Median
28 10% 10%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 100%  
26 4% 99.7%  
27 89% 96% Median
28 6% 6%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 18% 99.7%  
25 81% 82% Median
26 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.7% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.3% Last Result
24 75% 98.6% Median
25 23% 24%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 1.2% 100%  
23 12% 98.7%  
24 74% 87% Median
25 13% 13%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 2% 100%  
22 94% 98% Median
23 4% 4%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 77% 98% Median
23 21% 21%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100% Last Result
19 18% 99.8%  
20 81% 82% Median
21 0.9% 0.9%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100%  
17 95% 98% Median
18 3% 3% Last Result
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.6% 100%  
17 86% 99.4% Last Result, Median
18 13% 13%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 97% 98% Median
16 1.3% 1.3%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations