Opinion Poll by Gallup, 4 May–1 June 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.7% |
23.9–25.4% |
23.7–25.6% |
23.6–25.8% |
23.2–26.1% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.4% |
13.8–15.0% |
13.7–15.2% |
13.6–15.3% |
13.3–15.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
14.3% |
13.7–14.9% |
13.6–15.1% |
13.4–15.2% |
13.2–15.5% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.0% |
10.5–11.6% |
10.4–11.7% |
10.2–11.9% |
10.0–12.1% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.4% |
9.9–11.0% |
9.8–11.1% |
9.7–11.2% |
9.4–11.5% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.7% |
9.2–10.2% |
9.1–10.4% |
9.0–10.5% |
8.8–10.8% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.7% |
7.3–8.2% |
7.2–8.3% |
7.1–8.4% |
6.9–8.7% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.4% |
4.1–4.8% |
4.0–4.9% |
3.9–5.0% |
3.7–5.2% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.3% |
3.0–3.6% |
2.9–3.7% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.7–4.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
17 |
78% |
98% |
Median |
18 |
21% |
21% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
18% |
100% |
|
10 |
82% |
82% |
Median |
11 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
10 |
98% |
98.8% |
Median |
11 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
87% |
99.9% |
Median |
8 |
13% |
13% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
95% |
98.9% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
21% |
100% |
|
7 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
5 |
98% |
99.1% |
Median |
6 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
3 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
34 |
99.8% |
33–34 |
33–34 |
33–34 |
32–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
32 |
98% |
32–33 |
32–33 |
32–33 |
31–33 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
82% |
31–32 |
31–32 |
31–33 |
31–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0% |
29–30 |
29–30 |
29–30 |
27–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
27 |
0% |
27–28 |
27–28 |
27–28 |
26–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
27 |
0% |
26–27 |
26–27 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
27 |
0% |
26–27 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0% |
27 |
27–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
24–25 |
24–25 |
24–25 |
24–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
24–25 |
24–25 |
24–25 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
22 |
22 |
22–23 |
21–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
22–23 |
22–23 |
22–23 |
21–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
20 |
0% |
19–20 |
19–20 |
19–20 |
19–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
17 |
0% |
17 |
17 |
17–18 |
16–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
17 |
0% |
17–18 |
17–18 |
17–18 |
16–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
15 |
15 |
15 |
14–16 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
Majority |
33 |
25% |
99.4% |
|
34 |
74% |
75% |
Median |
35 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
77% |
98% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
21% |
21% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
31 |
18% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
78% |
82% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
|
29 |
74% |
98% |
Median |
30 |
24% |
24% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
77% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
28 |
21% |
21% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
19% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
78% |
81% |
Median |
28 |
3% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
14% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
76% |
86% |
Median |
28 |
10% |
10% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
89% |
96% |
Median |
28 |
6% |
6% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
18% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
81% |
82% |
Median |
26 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
24 |
75% |
98.6% |
Median |
25 |
23% |
24% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
12% |
98.7% |
|
24 |
74% |
87% |
Median |
25 |
13% |
13% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
2% |
100% |
|
22 |
94% |
98% |
Median |
23 |
4% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
77% |
98% |
Median |
23 |
21% |
21% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
18% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
81% |
82% |
Median |
21 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
2% |
100% |
|
17 |
95% |
98% |
Median |
18 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
17 |
86% |
99.4% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
13% |
13% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
97% |
98% |
Median |
16 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4 May–1 June 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 5740
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%