Opinion Poll by MMR, 16–19 June 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.3% |
22.7–26.1% |
22.2–26.6% |
21.8–27.0% |
21.0–27.9% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.4% |
15.0–17.9% |
14.6–18.4% |
14.3–18.7% |
13.6–19.5% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.2% |
11.9–14.6% |
11.6–15.0% |
11.3–15.4% |
10.7–16.1% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.7% |
9.6–12.0% |
9.3–12.4% |
9.0–12.7% |
8.5–13.4% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.0% |
8.9–11.3% |
8.6–11.7% |
8.4–12.0% |
7.9–12.7% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.0% |
7.1–9.2% |
6.8–9.6% |
6.5–9.8% |
6.1–10.4% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
6.1% |
5.3–7.2% |
5.0–7.5% |
4.8–7.7% |
4.5–8.3% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.4% |
4.6–6.4% |
4.3–6.6% |
4.1–6.9% |
3.8–7.4% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.5% |
2.9–4.4% |
2.7–4.6% |
2.6–4.8% |
2.3–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
8% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
20% |
92% |
Last Result |
17 |
20% |
72% |
|
18 |
24% |
51% |
Median |
19 |
19% |
27% |
|
20 |
6% |
9% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
9 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
10 |
15% |
98% |
|
11 |
46% |
82% |
Median |
12 |
26% |
36% |
|
13 |
10% |
11% |
|
14 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
29% |
97% |
|
9 |
45% |
68% |
Median |
10 |
18% |
23% |
|
11 |
4% |
4% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
37% |
98% |
|
7 |
43% |
62% |
Median |
8 |
10% |
19% |
|
9 |
6% |
9% |
|
10 |
3% |
3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
45% |
96% |
|
7 |
41% |
51% |
Median |
8 |
9% |
10% |
|
9 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
16% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
47% |
84% |
Median |
6 |
34% |
37% |
|
7 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
24% |
94% |
|
4 |
59% |
70% |
Median |
5 |
10% |
11% |
|
6 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
21% |
100% |
|
1 |
2% |
79% |
|
2 |
0% |
77% |
|
3 |
39% |
77% |
Median |
4 |
36% |
38% |
Last Result |
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
3 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
34 |
87% |
31–36 |
31–37 |
31–37 |
30–38 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
29 |
3% |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
25–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
28 |
3% |
26–30 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
25–32 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
27 |
1.4% |
25–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
24–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
24–29 |
24–29 |
24–30 |
23–30 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
27 |
0.3% |
25–29 |
25–30 |
24–30 |
24–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
21–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
23 |
0% |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
19–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–25 |
19–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
21 |
0% |
19–23 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
18–25 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–21 |
16–21 |
15–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
16 |
0% |
14–18 |
14–19 |
14–19 |
13–20 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
14–18 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
11–14 |
10–15 |
10–15 |
10–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
10 |
0% |
9–13 |
9–13 |
9–14 |
8–14 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
12% |
99.0% |
|
32 |
15% |
87% |
Majority |
33 |
16% |
72% |
|
34 |
23% |
56% |
Median |
35 |
18% |
33% |
|
36 |
9% |
15% |
|
37 |
4% |
6% |
|
38 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
39 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
5% |
98.7% |
|
27 |
15% |
94% |
|
28 |
18% |
78% |
|
29 |
25% |
60% |
Median |
30 |
22% |
35% |
|
31 |
10% |
13% |
|
32 |
3% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
25 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
26 |
10% |
96% |
|
27 |
19% |
86% |
|
28 |
24% |
66% |
|
29 |
23% |
43% |
Median |
30 |
13% |
20% |
|
31 |
4% |
7% |
|
32 |
3% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
12% |
98% |
|
26 |
20% |
86% |
|
27 |
33% |
65% |
Median |
28 |
14% |
33% |
|
29 |
7% |
19% |
|
30 |
8% |
12% |
|
31 |
3% |
4% |
|
32 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
10% |
98% |
|
25 |
17% |
89% |
|
26 |
21% |
72% |
|
27 |
24% |
51% |
Median |
28 |
15% |
27% |
|
29 |
9% |
12% |
|
30 |
3% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
25 |
15% |
97% |
|
26 |
14% |
82% |
|
27 |
26% |
68% |
Median |
28 |
23% |
41% |
|
29 |
13% |
19% |
|
30 |
5% |
6% |
|
31 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
3% |
100% |
|
22 |
5% |
97% |
|
23 |
19% |
92% |
|
24 |
22% |
72% |
|
25 |
27% |
50% |
Median |
26 |
14% |
23% |
|
27 |
6% |
9% |
Last Result |
28 |
3% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
4% |
98% |
|
22 |
21% |
95% |
|
23 |
31% |
73% |
Median |
24 |
22% |
43% |
|
25 |
10% |
20% |
Last Result |
26 |
7% |
10% |
|
27 |
3% |
4% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
13% |
97% |
|
23 |
18% |
84% |
|
24 |
27% |
66% |
|
25 |
23% |
39% |
Median |
26 |
9% |
16% |
|
27 |
5% |
7% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
20 |
5% |
99.1% |
|
21 |
16% |
94% |
|
22 |
23% |
78% |
|
23 |
24% |
56% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
17% |
31% |
|
25 |
11% |
15% |
|
26 |
4% |
4% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
13% |
97% |
|
21 |
27% |
85% |
|
22 |
30% |
57% |
Median |
23 |
12% |
28% |
|
24 |
7% |
16% |
|
25 |
6% |
9% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
13% |
98% |
|
20 |
18% |
86% |
|
21 |
22% |
67% |
|
22 |
23% |
45% |
Median |
23 |
15% |
22% |
|
24 |
4% |
7% |
Last Result |
25 |
3% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
8% |
98.9% |
|
17 |
21% |
91% |
|
18 |
35% |
71% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
20% |
36% |
|
20 |
9% |
16% |
|
21 |
6% |
7% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
14 |
16% |
99.1% |
|
15 |
28% |
83% |
|
16 |
29% |
55% |
Median |
17 |
10% |
27% |
|
18 |
9% |
17% |
|
19 |
6% |
8% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
13% |
98% |
|
15 |
25% |
85% |
|
16 |
31% |
60% |
Median |
17 |
19% |
29% |
Last Result |
18 |
8% |
10% |
|
19 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
10 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
11 |
27% |
94% |
|
12 |
34% |
67% |
Median |
13 |
19% |
33% |
|
14 |
9% |
14% |
|
15 |
4% |
5% |
|
16 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
9 |
10% |
99.3% |
|
10 |
49% |
89% |
|
11 |
22% |
41% |
Median |
12 |
4% |
19% |
|
13 |
11% |
15% |
|
14 |
4% |
4% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–19 June 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1045
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.51%