Opinion Poll by MMR, 16–19 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.3% 22.7–26.1% 22.2–26.6% 21.8–27.0% 21.0–27.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.4% 15.0–17.9% 14.6–18.4% 14.3–18.7% 13.6–19.5%
Píratar 9.2% 13.2% 11.9–14.6% 11.6–15.0% 11.3–15.4% 10.7–16.1%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.7% 9.6–12.0% 9.3–12.4% 9.0–12.7% 8.5–13.4%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.4–12.0% 7.9–12.7%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 6.1% 5.3–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.7% 4.5–8.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.8–7.4%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.6–4.8% 2.3–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 16–19 15–20 15–21 15–21
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–9 6–10 5–10
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 3–5 2–5 2–5 2–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 8% 99.8%  
16 20% 92% Last Result
17 20% 72%  
18 24% 51% Median
19 19% 27%  
20 6% 9%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 15% 98%  
11 46% 82% Median
12 26% 36%  
13 10% 11%  
14 0.7% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 3% 99.9%  
8 29% 97%  
9 45% 68% Median
10 18% 23%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 37% 98%  
7 43% 62% Median
8 10% 19%  
9 6% 9%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 4% 100%  
6 45% 96%  
7 41% 51% Median
8 9% 10%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 16% 99.9%  
5 47% 84% Median
6 34% 37%  
7 2% 3% Last Result
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 6% 99.9%  
3 24% 94%  
4 59% 70% Median
5 10% 11%  
6 0.5% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 2% 79%  
2 0% 77%  
3 39% 77% Median
4 36% 38% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 1.1% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 34 87% 31–36 31–37 31–37 30–38
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 3% 27–31 26–31 26–32 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 28 3% 26–30 26–31 25–32 25–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 27 1.4% 25–30 25–30 25–31 24–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 27 0% 24–29 24–29 24–30 23–30
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 27 0.3% 25–29 25–30 24–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 23–26 22–27 21–28 21–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 23 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 22–26 22–27 21–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–24 20–25 19–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 19–23 19–24 19–25 18–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 16 0% 14–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 14–18 14–18 14–18 13–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 11–14 10–15 10–15 10–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 10 0% 9–13 9–13 9–14 8–14

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.8%  
31 12% 99.0%  
32 15% 87% Majority
33 16% 72%  
34 23% 56% Median
35 18% 33%  
36 9% 15%  
37 4% 6%  
38 1.0% 1.3%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.9%  
26 5% 98.7%  
27 15% 94%  
28 18% 78%  
29 25% 60% Median
30 22% 35%  
31 10% 13%  
32 3% 3% Majority
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 4% 99.7%  
26 10% 96%  
27 19% 86%  
28 24% 66%  
29 23% 43% Median
30 13% 20%  
31 4% 7%  
32 3% 3% Majority
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 12% 98%  
26 20% 86%  
27 33% 65% Median
28 14% 33%  
29 7% 19%  
30 8% 12%  
31 3% 4%  
32 1.4% 1.4% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.5% 99.9%  
24 10% 98%  
25 17% 89%  
26 21% 72%  
27 24% 51% Median
28 15% 27%  
29 9% 12%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.7% Last Result
25 15% 97%  
26 14% 82%  
27 26% 68% Median
28 23% 41%  
29 13% 19%  
30 5% 6%  
31 0.8% 1.1%  
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 3% 100%  
22 5% 97%  
23 19% 92%  
24 22% 72%  
25 27% 50% Median
26 14% 23%  
27 6% 9% Last Result
28 3% 3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 4% 98%  
22 21% 95%  
23 31% 73% Median
24 22% 43%  
25 10% 20% Last Result
26 7% 10%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100% Last Result
21 3% 99.8%  
22 13% 97%  
23 18% 84%  
24 27% 66%  
25 23% 39% Median
26 9% 16%  
27 5% 7%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.9% 100%  
20 5% 99.1%  
21 16% 94%  
22 23% 78%  
23 24% 56% Last Result, Median
24 17% 31%  
25 11% 15%  
26 4% 4%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 13% 97%  
21 27% 85%  
22 30% 57% Median
23 12% 28%  
24 7% 16%  
25 6% 9%  
26 2% 2% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 13% 98%  
20 18% 86%  
21 22% 67%  
22 23% 45% Median
23 15% 22%  
24 4% 7% Last Result
25 3% 3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.1% 100%  
16 8% 98.9%  
17 21% 91%  
18 35% 71% Last Result, Median
19 20% 36%  
20 9% 16%  
21 6% 7%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.9% 100%  
14 16% 99.1%  
15 28% 83%  
16 29% 55% Median
17 10% 27%  
18 9% 17%  
19 6% 8%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 13% 98%  
15 25% 85%  
16 31% 60% Median
17 19% 29% Last Result
18 8% 10%  
19 1.2% 2%  
20 0.6% 0.6%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 6% 99.8%  
11 27% 94%  
12 34% 67% Median
13 19% 33%  
14 9% 14%  
15 4% 5%  
16 1.4% 1.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.7% 100%  
9 10% 99.3%  
10 49% 89%  
11 22% 41% Median
12 4% 19%  
13 11% 15%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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