Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2–30 June 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.0% |
23.3–24.8% |
23.1–25.0% |
22.9–25.2% |
22.5–25.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.9% |
14.3–15.5% |
14.1–15.7% |
14.0–15.9% |
13.7–16.2% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.6% |
13.0–14.2% |
12.8–14.4% |
12.7–14.5% |
12.4–14.8% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.7% |
10.2–11.2% |
10.0–11.4% |
9.9–11.6% |
9.6–11.8% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.5% |
10.0–11.1% |
9.8–11.2% |
9.7–11.4% |
9.5–11.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.2% |
9.7–10.8% |
9.5–10.9% |
9.4–11.0% |
9.2–11.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.6% |
8.1–9.1% |
8.0–9.3% |
7.9–9.4% |
7.7–9.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.8% |
3.5–4.2% |
3.4–4.3% |
3.3–4.3% |
3.2–4.5% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.6% |
3.3–3.9% |
3.2–4.0% |
3.1–4.1% |
3.0–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
16 |
28% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
17 |
64% |
71% |
Median |
18 |
7% |
7% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
3% |
100% |
|
10 |
86% |
97% |
Median |
11 |
11% |
11% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
9 |
52% |
98.7% |
Median |
10 |
47% |
47% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
78% |
98% |
Median |
8 |
20% |
20% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
7% |
100% |
|
7 |
87% |
93% |
Median |
8 |
7% |
7% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
11% |
100% |
|
7 |
86% |
89% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
40% |
100% |
|
6 |
60% |
60% |
Median |
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
34 |
100% |
33–34 |
33–35 |
33–35 |
32–35 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
90% |
32–33 |
31–33 |
31–33 |
30–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
32 |
75% |
31–32 |
31–33 |
31–33 |
30–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0% |
29–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
28–31 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
27 |
0% |
26–27 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
25–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
26 |
0% |
26–27 |
25–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
25–26 |
25–26 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
23–24 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–24 |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
22–23 |
21–23 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–22 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
20 |
0% |
19–20 |
19–20 |
19–21 |
18–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
17 |
0% |
16–17 |
16–17 |
16–18 |
15–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
16 |
0% |
16–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
15–16 |
15–16 |
14–16 |
14–16 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
1.2% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
34% |
98.8% |
Median |
34 |
57% |
65% |
|
35 |
8% |
8% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
31 |
9% |
99.5% |
|
32 |
75% |
90% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
14% |
15% |
Last Result |
34 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
31 |
24% |
99.2% |
|
32 |
67% |
75% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
8% |
8% |
|
34 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
57% |
92% |
|
30 |
34% |
35% |
Median |
31 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
33% |
98.6% |
Median |
27 |
59% |
66% |
|
28 |
7% |
7% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
26 |
24% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
65% |
75% |
Median |
28 |
10% |
10% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
7% |
100% |
Last Result |
26 |
44% |
93% |
Median |
27 |
46% |
49% |
|
28 |
4% |
4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
19% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
43% |
81% |
Median |
27 |
34% |
38% |
Last Result |
28 |
4% |
4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
24 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
78% |
95% |
Median |
26 |
15% |
17% |
Last Result |
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
23 |
27% |
98.6% |
|
24 |
65% |
72% |
Median |
25 |
6% |
6% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
3% |
100% |
|
23 |
32% |
97% |
Last Result |
24 |
60% |
65% |
Median |
25 |
6% |
6% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
5% |
100% |
|
22 |
56% |
95% |
|
23 |
36% |
39% |
Median |
24 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
21 |
11% |
99.5% |
|
22 |
79% |
88% |
Median |
23 |
9% |
9% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
46% |
98% |
Median |
20 |
47% |
52% |
|
21 |
5% |
5% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
16 |
39% |
99.1% |
Median |
17 |
56% |
60% |
Last Result |
18 |
4% |
4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
9% |
100% |
|
16 |
46% |
91% |
Median |
17 |
45% |
45% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
14 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
15 |
85% |
96% |
Median |
16 |
11% |
11% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2–30 June 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 5312
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.16%