Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2–30 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.0% 23.3–24.8% 23.1–25.0% 22.9–25.2% 22.5–25.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.9% 14.3–15.5% 14.1–15.7% 14.0–15.9% 13.7–16.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.6% 13.0–14.2% 12.8–14.4% 12.7–14.5% 12.4–14.8%
Píratar 9.2% 10.7% 10.2–11.2% 10.0–11.4% 9.9–11.6% 9.6–11.8%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.5% 10.0–11.1% 9.8–11.2% 9.7–11.4% 9.5–11.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.2% 9.7–10.8% 9.5–10.9% 9.4–11.0% 9.2–11.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.6% 8.1–9.1% 8.0–9.3% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.8% 3.5–4.2% 3.4–4.3% 3.3–4.3% 3.2–4.5%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.6% 3.3–3.9% 3.2–4.0% 3.1–4.1% 3.0–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–17 16–18 16–18 15–18
Samfylkingin 7 10 10–11 10–11 9–11 9–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
Píratar 6 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–8
Viðreisn 4 7 7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.0% 100%  
16 28% 99.0% Last Result
17 64% 71% Median
18 7% 7%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 3% 100%  
10 86% 97% Median
11 11% 11%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.3% 100%  
9 52% 98.7% Median
10 47% 47%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100% Last Result
7 78% 98% Median
8 20% 20%  
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 7% 100%  
7 87% 93% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 11% 100%  
7 86% 89% Last Result, Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 40% 100%  
6 60% 60% Median
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 34 100% 33–34 33–35 33–35 32–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 90% 32–33 31–33 31–33 30–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 75% 31–32 31–33 31–33 30–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 29 0% 29–30 28–30 28–30 28–31
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 26–27 26–28 26–28 25–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 26–28 26–28 26–28 26–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 26–27 25–27 25–28 25–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–28 25–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 25–26 25–26 24–27 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–24 23–25 23–25 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–24 23–25 22–25 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 22–23 21–23 21–24 21–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–22 21–23 21–23 21–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–20 19–20 19–21 18–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–17 16–17 16–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 16 0% 16–17 15–17 15–17 15–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 15–16 15–16 14–16 14–16

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 1.2% 100% Majority
33 34% 98.8% Median
34 57% 65%  
35 8% 8%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.5% 100%  
31 9% 99.5%  
32 75% 90% Median, Majority
33 14% 15% Last Result
34 1.2% 1.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.8% 100%  
31 24% 99.2%  
32 67% 75% Median, Majority
33 8% 8%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 8% 99.9%  
29 57% 92%  
30 34% 35% Median
31 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 1.4% 100%  
26 33% 98.6% Median
27 59% 66%  
28 7% 7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 100%  
26 24% 99.7%  
27 65% 75% Median
28 10% 10%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 7% 100% Last Result
26 44% 93% Median
27 46% 49%  
28 4% 4%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 19% 99.9%  
26 43% 81% Median
27 34% 38% Last Result
28 4% 4%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 4% 99.6%  
25 78% 95% Median
26 15% 17% Last Result
27 3% 3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 1.4% 100%  
23 27% 98.6%  
24 65% 72% Median
25 6% 6%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 3% 100%  
23 32% 97% Last Result
24 60% 65% Median
25 6% 6%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 5% 100%  
22 56% 95%  
23 36% 39% Median
24 3% 3% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 11% 99.5%  
22 79% 88% Median
23 9% 9%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 2% 100% Last Result
19 46% 98% Median
20 47% 52%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.9% 100%  
16 39% 99.1% Median
17 56% 60% Last Result
18 4% 4%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 9% 100%  
16 46% 91% Median
17 45% 45%  
18 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 4% 99.6%  
15 85% 96% Median
16 11% 11%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations