Opinion Poll by MMR, 23–28 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.8–26.3% 21.4–26.8% 20.6–27.7%
Píratar 9.2% 15.5% 14.0–17.1% 13.6–17.5% 13.3–17.9% 12.7–18.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.5–15.1% 11.1–15.4% 10.5–16.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.6% 9.0–13.0% 8.5–13.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.6% 7.6–9.9% 7.3–10.3% 7.0–10.6% 6.5–11.2%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.4% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.3–11.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.4% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.3–11.0%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.2% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–21
Píratar 6 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 7–10 7–11 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 4–7 4–8 4–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Viðreisn 4 6 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.3% 100%  
15 9% 98.7%  
16 25% 90% Last Result
17 16% 65% Median
18 34% 49%  
19 12% 15%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0.8% 100%  
9 13% 99.2%  
10 38% 86% Median
11 35% 49%  
12 12% 14%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 6% 99.7% Last Result
8 27% 93%  
9 39% 67% Median
10 25% 27%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 18% 99.3%  
7 34% 81% Median
8 38% 47%  
9 8% 9%  
10 0.9% 0.9%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100%  
5 31% 95%  
6 47% 63% Median
7 13% 17%  
8 4% 4% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 6% 99.9%  
5 48% 93% Median
6 35% 45%  
7 9% 11% Last Result
8 1.1% 1.3%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 6% 100% Last Result
5 36% 94%  
6 51% 58% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 35% 55% Median
4 19% 20%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Median
1 0.1% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 8% 9%  
4 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 32 68% 30–34 30–35 29–35 28–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 26% 29–32 28–32 27–33 26–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 2% 26–30 26–31 25–31 24–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 28 0.5% 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 27 0% 24–29 24–29 23–30 23–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 24–28 24–28 23–29 22–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 21–25 20–25 20–25 19–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 20–24 19–24 19–24 18–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 19 0% 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–22
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 18 0% 16–19 16–20 15–20 15–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 12–15 11–15 11–15 10–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 11–14 11–15 11–15 10–16

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.6% Last Result
29 4% 98.7%  
30 14% 95%  
31 13% 81%  
32 20% 68% Median, Majority
33 13% 48%  
34 25% 35%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.5%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.3%  
28 6% 97%  
29 18% 91%  
30 28% 73% Median
31 18% 44%  
32 22% 26% Majority
33 3% 4%  
34 1.2% 1.4%  
35 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.5% 100%  
25 3% 99.5%  
26 8% 97%  
27 11% 89%  
28 24% 77% Median
29 28% 53%  
30 18% 25%  
31 5% 7% Last Result
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.0%  
25 8% 96%  
26 15% 88%  
27 20% 73% Median
28 22% 53%  
29 17% 31%  
30 11% 14%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.5% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 2% 99.7%  
24 8% 97% Last Result
25 13% 89%  
26 18% 76% Median
27 19% 58%  
28 25% 39%  
29 12% 15%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.7% 0.7%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.4% Last Result
24 8% 96%  
25 23% 88%  
26 21% 65% Median
27 31% 44%  
28 8% 13%  
29 3% 4%  
30 1.0% 1.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 5% 98%  
23 14% 93%  
24 28% 79% Median
25 22% 51%  
26 22% 29%  
27 6% 7% Last Result
28 1.0% 1.3%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.8% 100%  
20 3% 99.2%  
21 12% 96%  
22 19% 84%  
23 24% 65% Median
24 30% 41% Last Result
25 9% 11%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.9%  
20 6% 98.8%  
21 13% 93%  
22 20% 80% Median
23 31% 60% Last Result
24 19% 29%  
25 8% 10%  
26 1.0% 2%  
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.9%  
20 7% 99.0% Last Result
21 12% 92%  
22 23% 80%  
23 20% 57% Median
24 25% 37%  
25 10% 12%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.9%  
19 5% 99.0%  
20 12% 94%  
21 20% 82%  
22 17% 63% Median
23 29% 46%  
24 14% 18%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.9%  
19 4% 98.9%  
20 15% 94%  
21 17% 79% Median
22 34% 62%  
23 15% 28%  
24 11% 13%  
25 2% 2% Last Result
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.9%  
16 6% 98.6%  
17 13% 92%  
18 23% 80% Median
19 30% 56%  
20 16% 26%  
21 7% 10%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 4% 99.5%  
16 16% 96%  
17 20% 80% Last Result, Median
18 21% 61%  
19 30% 39%  
20 8% 10%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.3% 99.9%  
14 9% 98.7%  
15 17% 90%  
16 23% 73% Median
17 37% 50%  
18 10% 13% Last Result
19 2% 3%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 1.5% 99.9%  
11 6% 98%  
12 26% 92%  
13 24% 66% Median
14 28% 42%  
15 12% 14%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.2% 99.9%  
11 11% 98.7%  
12 23% 88% Median
13 39% 65%  
14 16% 26%  
15 8% 10%  
16 1.3% 1.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations