Opinion Poll by Gallup, 4–31 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.8% 22.1–23.6% 21.8–23.8% 21.7–24.0% 21.3–24.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.7% 14.1–15.4% 13.9–15.5% 13.7–15.7% 13.4–16.0%
Píratar 9.2% 13.7% 13.1–14.3% 12.9–14.5% 12.8–14.7% 12.5–15.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.6% 12.0–13.2% 11.8–13.4% 11.7–13.6% 11.4–13.9%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.6% 10.1–11.2% 9.9–11.4% 9.8–11.5% 9.5–11.8%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.9% 9.4–10.5% 9.2–10.6% 9.1–10.8% 8.9–11.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.9% 7.4–8.4% 7.3–8.6% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–8.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.9% 3.6–4.3% 3.5–4.4% 3.4–4.5% 3.2–4.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.6% 3.3–4.0% 3.2–4.1% 3.1–4.2% 3.0–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–17
Samfylkingin 7 10 10–11 9–11 9–11 9–11
Píratar 6 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Viðreisn 4 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 22% 100%  
16 56% 78% Last Result, Median
17 21% 21%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 7% 100%  
10 80% 93% Median
11 13% 13%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 63% 98% Median
10 35% 35%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 43% 99.9%  
9 53% 57% Median
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 87% 98% Median
8 11% 11%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 30% 100%  
7 64% 70% Last Result, Median
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 84% 99.6% Median
6 16% 16%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 35 100% 34–36 34–36 34–36 34–37
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 31 12% 30–32 29–32 29–32 29–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 0.1% 29–30 29–31 28–31 28–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 26–29
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 27–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–27 24–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 25 0% 24–26 24–27 24–27 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 24–25 23–26 23–26 23–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 22–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 22–24 22–24 21–24 21–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–22 20–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 19–22 19–22 19–22 19–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 18–19 18–20 18–20 17–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 18 0% 17–19 17–19 17–19 17–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–17 14–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–15

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0.2% 100%  
34 17% 99.8%  
35 57% 82% Median
36 24% 26%  
37 1.3% 1.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 9% 99.9%  
30 35% 91%  
31 43% 56% Median
32 12% 12% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 4% 100%  
29 26% 96%  
30 62% 71% Median
31 9% 9%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 1.3% 100%  
27 24% 98.7%  
28 57% 74% Median
29 17% 18%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0.3% 100%  
27 20% 99.7%  
28 59% 79% Median
29 19% 20%  
30 0.9% 0.9%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 1.0% 100%  
25 21% 99.0%  
26 50% 78% Median
27 28% 28%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 11% 99.8%  
25 41% 89% Last Result
26 42% 48% Median
27 6% 6%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 6% 100%  
24 35% 94%  
25 53% 59% Median
26 7% 7%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 1.1% 100%  
23 33% 98.9%  
24 49% 66% Median
25 16% 17%  
26 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.1% 100%  
22 19% 99.9%  
23 53% 81% Median
24 27% 27%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 3% 100%  
22 34% 97%  
23 49% 63% Last Result, Median
24 14% 14%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 12% 99.9%  
21 61% 88% Median
22 27% 27%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 11% 100%  
20 36% 89%  
21 43% 53% Median
22 10% 10%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 1.3% 100%  
18 40% 98.7% Last Result
19 50% 59% Median
20 8% 9%  
21 0.6% 0.6%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 21% 99.6% Last Result
18 64% 79% Median
19 15% 15%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 12% 100%  
15 41% 88%  
16 44% 47% Median
17 3% 3%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 37% 99.9%  
14 49% 63% Median
15 14% 14%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations