Opinion Poll by MMR, 26 August–2 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.0% 22.3–25.9% 21.8–26.4% 21.4–26.9% 20.6–27.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.9% 13.4–16.4% 13.0–16.9% 12.7–17.3% 12.1–18.1%
Píratar 9.2% 14.3% 12.9–15.9% 12.5–16.3% 12.2–16.7% 11.6–17.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.0% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.8% 8.2–12.1% 7.7–12.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 9.6% 8.4–10.9% 8.1–11.3% 7.8–11.6% 7.3–12.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.6% 7.3–10.9% 6.8–11.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6% 6.4–9.9% 5.9–10.5%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.8% 4.1–5.9% 3.8–6.2% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–7.0%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–21
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–12 9–12 8–12 8–12
Píratar 6 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 8–12
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.9%  
15 7% 99.3%  
16 23% 92% Last Result
17 29% 69% Median
18 19% 40%  
19 17% 20%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.6% 0.6%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 4% 99.9%  
9 28% 96%  
10 32% 68% Median
11 25% 36%  
12 10% 11%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.2% 100%  
8 7% 99.8%  
9 28% 93%  
10 46% 65% Median
11 17% 19%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 4% 100%  
6 41% 96%  
7 31% 55% Median
8 23% 24%  
9 1.3% 1.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 9% 99.8%  
6 51% 91% Median
7 33% 40%  
8 7% 8%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 22% 98%  
6 57% 76% Median
7 11% 20%  
8 7% 9% Last Result
9 1.2% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 12% 99.8%  
5 57% 88% Median
6 27% 31%  
7 4% 4% Last Result
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Median
1 1.4% 44%  
2 0% 42%  
3 31% 42%  
4 10% 11% Last Result
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.1%  
3 1.0% 1.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 33 84% 31–35 30–36 30–36 29–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 10% 28–32 27–32 27–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 1.3% 27–30 26–31 26–31 25–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 28 0.7% 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0.1% 25–30 25–30 24–30 24–31
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 24–28 24–29 23–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–27 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 21–25 20–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 20–24 20–24 19–25 18–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 18 0% 16–19 16–20 15–21 14–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 15–18 14–18 14–19 13–19
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 15–18 15–19 14–19 13–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
29 2% 99.7%  
30 5% 98%  
31 9% 93%  
32 20% 84% Majority
33 26% 64% Median
34 16% 38%  
35 15% 22%  
36 5% 6%  
37 1.2% 1.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.1% 99.8%  
27 4% 98.7%  
28 12% 94%  
29 29% 82% Median
30 25% 53%  
31 18% 28%  
32 9% 10% Majority
33 1.3% 1.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 5% 98%  
27 15% 93%  
28 32% 78% Median
29 19% 47%  
30 21% 28%  
31 5% 7% Last Result
32 1.2% 1.3% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.1% 99.8%  
25 6% 98.7%  
26 16% 93%  
27 20% 77% Median
28 29% 57%  
29 12% 28%  
30 10% 16%  
31 5% 6%  
32 0.7% 0.7% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100% Last Result
24 2% 99.6%  
25 10% 97%  
26 19% 87%  
27 27% 69% Median
28 17% 42%  
29 12% 25%  
30 12% 13%  
31 1.1% 1.1%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 2% 99.6%  
24 7% 97% Last Result
25 25% 90%  
26 17% 65% Median
27 28% 48%  
28 12% 20%  
29 7% 8%  
30 1.5% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.6% 100% Last Result
21 2% 99.3%  
22 11% 97%  
23 19% 86%  
24 31% 67% Median
25 25% 37%  
26 9% 12%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.8%  
21 8% 98%  
22 20% 91%  
23 28% 70% Median
24 20% 42% Last Result
25 17% 22%  
26 5% 5%  
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 6% 99.1%  
22 12% 93%  
23 28% 81% Median
24 28% 53%  
25 16% 25%  
26 8% 9%  
27 1.1% 1.3% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.9%  
20 7% 99.0%  
21 17% 92%  
22 24% 76% Median
23 28% 51%  
24 13% 23%  
25 8% 10%  
26 2% 2% Last Result
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.8%  
20 7% 98.6%  
21 14% 92%  
22 30% 78% Median
23 23% 48% Last Result
24 18% 24%  
25 5% 6%  
26 0.9% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.2% 100%  
19 3% 98.8%  
20 18% 95%  
21 21% 77% Median
22 30% 56%  
23 11% 26%  
24 12% 15%  
25 3% 4% Last Result
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 4% 99.4%  
16 9% 96%  
17 35% 87% Median
18 31% 52%  
19 12% 21%  
20 6% 9%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 6% 99.4%  
15 20% 94%  
16 38% 74% Median
17 24% 36% Last Result
18 9% 12%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.7% 100%  
14 3% 99.3%  
15 22% 97%  
16 23% 74% Median
17 30% 52%  
18 15% 21% Last Result
19 6% 7%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 3% 99.7%  
11 14% 97%  
12 40% 83% Median
13 27% 43%  
14 11% 16%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 9% 98%  
11 38% 89% Median
12 36% 51%  
13 10% 16%  
14 4% 6%  
15 1.3% 1.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations