Opinion Poll by MMR, 26 August–2 September 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.0% |
22.3–25.9% |
21.8–26.4% |
21.4–26.9% |
20.6–27.8% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.9% |
13.4–16.4% |
13.0–16.9% |
12.7–17.3% |
12.1–18.1% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
14.3% |
12.9–15.9% |
12.5–16.3% |
12.2–16.7% |
11.6–17.5% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.0% |
8.8–11.4% |
8.5–11.8% |
8.2–12.1% |
7.7–12.8% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
9.6% |
8.4–10.9% |
8.1–11.3% |
7.8–11.6% |
7.3–12.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.9% |
7.8–10.2% |
7.5–10.6% |
7.3–10.9% |
6.8–11.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.0% |
6.9–9.2% |
6.6–9.6% |
6.4–9.9% |
5.9–10.5% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.8% |
4.1–5.9% |
3.8–6.2% |
3.6–6.4% |
3.3–7.0% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.4% |
2.8–4.3% |
2.6–4.6% |
2.5–4.8% |
2.2–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
7% |
99.3% |
|
16 |
23% |
92% |
Last Result |
17 |
29% |
69% |
Median |
18 |
19% |
40% |
|
19 |
17% |
20% |
|
20 |
3% |
4% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
28% |
96% |
|
10 |
32% |
68% |
Median |
11 |
25% |
36% |
|
12 |
10% |
11% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
8 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
9 |
28% |
93% |
|
10 |
46% |
65% |
Median |
11 |
17% |
19% |
|
12 |
2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
41% |
96% |
|
7 |
31% |
55% |
Median |
8 |
23% |
24% |
|
9 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
9% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
51% |
91% |
Median |
7 |
33% |
40% |
|
8 |
7% |
8% |
|
9 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
22% |
98% |
|
6 |
57% |
76% |
Median |
7 |
11% |
20% |
|
8 |
7% |
9% |
Last Result |
9 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
4 |
12% |
99.8% |
|
5 |
57% |
88% |
Median |
6 |
27% |
31% |
|
7 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
56% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.4% |
44% |
|
2 |
0% |
42% |
|
3 |
31% |
42% |
|
4 |
10% |
11% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
3 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
28 |
33 |
84% |
31–35 |
30–36 |
30–36 |
29–37 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
30 |
10% |
28–32 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
1.3% |
27–30 |
26–31 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
28 |
0.7% |
26–30 |
25–31 |
25–31 |
24–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0.1% |
25–30 |
25–30 |
24–30 |
24–31 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
18–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–20 |
15–21 |
14–21 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–19 |
13–19 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–19 |
14–19 |
13–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
12 |
0% |
11–14 |
11–14 |
10–15 |
10–15 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
10–13 |
10–14 |
10–14 |
9–15 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
29 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
30 |
5% |
98% |
|
31 |
9% |
93% |
|
32 |
20% |
84% |
Majority |
33 |
26% |
64% |
Median |
34 |
16% |
38% |
|
35 |
15% |
22% |
|
36 |
5% |
6% |
|
37 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
4% |
98.7% |
|
28 |
12% |
94% |
|
29 |
29% |
82% |
Median |
30 |
25% |
53% |
|
31 |
18% |
28% |
|
32 |
9% |
10% |
Majority |
33 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
26 |
5% |
98% |
|
27 |
15% |
93% |
|
28 |
32% |
78% |
Median |
29 |
19% |
47% |
|
30 |
21% |
28% |
|
31 |
5% |
7% |
Last Result |
32 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
6% |
98.7% |
|
26 |
16% |
93% |
|
27 |
20% |
77% |
Median |
28 |
29% |
57% |
|
29 |
12% |
28% |
|
30 |
10% |
16% |
|
31 |
5% |
6% |
|
32 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
10% |
97% |
|
26 |
19% |
87% |
|
27 |
27% |
69% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
42% |
|
29 |
12% |
25% |
|
30 |
12% |
13% |
|
31 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
7% |
97% |
Last Result |
25 |
25% |
90% |
|
26 |
17% |
65% |
Median |
27 |
28% |
48% |
|
28 |
12% |
20% |
|
29 |
7% |
8% |
|
30 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.6% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
22 |
11% |
97% |
|
23 |
19% |
86% |
|
24 |
31% |
67% |
Median |
25 |
25% |
37% |
|
26 |
9% |
12% |
|
27 |
2% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
8% |
98% |
|
22 |
20% |
91% |
|
23 |
28% |
70% |
Median |
24 |
20% |
42% |
Last Result |
25 |
17% |
22% |
|
26 |
5% |
5% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
22 |
12% |
93% |
|
23 |
28% |
81% |
Median |
24 |
28% |
53% |
|
25 |
16% |
25% |
|
26 |
8% |
9% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
7% |
99.0% |
|
21 |
17% |
92% |
|
22 |
24% |
76% |
Median |
23 |
28% |
51% |
|
24 |
13% |
23% |
|
25 |
8% |
10% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
7% |
98.6% |
|
21 |
14% |
92% |
|
22 |
30% |
78% |
Median |
23 |
23% |
48% |
Last Result |
24 |
18% |
24% |
|
25 |
5% |
6% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
20 |
18% |
95% |
|
21 |
21% |
77% |
Median |
22 |
30% |
56% |
|
23 |
11% |
26% |
|
24 |
12% |
15% |
|
25 |
3% |
4% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
16 |
9% |
96% |
|
17 |
35% |
87% |
Median |
18 |
31% |
52% |
|
19 |
12% |
21% |
|
20 |
6% |
9% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
14 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
15 |
20% |
94% |
|
16 |
38% |
74% |
Median |
17 |
24% |
36% |
Last Result |
18 |
9% |
12% |
|
19 |
3% |
3% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
15 |
22% |
97% |
|
16 |
23% |
74% |
Median |
17 |
30% |
52% |
|
18 |
15% |
21% |
Last Result |
19 |
6% |
7% |
|
20 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
10 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
11 |
14% |
97% |
|
12 |
40% |
83% |
Median |
13 |
27% |
43% |
|
14 |
11% |
16% |
|
15 |
4% |
5% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
9% |
98% |
|
11 |
38% |
89% |
Median |
12 |
36% |
51% |
|
13 |
10% |
16% |
|
14 |
4% |
6% |
|
15 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26 August–2 September 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 929
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.09%