Opinion Poll by MMR, 10–23 September 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
25.6% |
24.4–26.9% |
24.1–27.2% |
23.8–27.5% |
23.2–28.2% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
15.0% |
14.0–16.0% |
13.7–16.3% |
13.5–16.6% |
13.0–17.1% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
12.8% |
11.9–13.8% |
11.7–14.1% |
11.4–14.3% |
11.0–14.8% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
10.8% |
10.0–11.8% |
9.7–12.0% |
9.5–12.2% |
9.2–12.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.4% |
8.6–10.3% |
8.4–10.5% |
8.2–10.7% |
7.8–11.2% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
8.5% |
7.8–9.4% |
7.6–9.6% |
7.4–9.8% |
7.0–10.2% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.3% |
7.6–9.2% |
7.4–9.4% |
7.2–9.6% |
6.9–10.0% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.3% |
3.8–4.9% |
3.6–5.1% |
3.5–5.3% |
3.3–5.6% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.6% |
3.1–4.2% |
3.0–4.4% |
2.9–4.5% |
2.7–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.9% |
100% |
Last Result |
17 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
18 |
44% |
91% |
Median |
19 |
40% |
47% |
|
20 |
6% |
6% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
42% |
87% |
Median |
11 |
41% |
45% |
|
12 |
4% |
4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
25% |
98% |
|
9 |
61% |
73% |
Median |
10 |
12% |
12% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
7% |
100% |
|
7 |
41% |
93% |
Last Result |
8 |
36% |
52% |
Median |
9 |
15% |
16% |
|
10 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
5% |
100% |
|
6 |
75% |
95% |
Median |
7 |
20% |
20% |
|
8 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
5 |
34% |
99.5% |
|
6 |
62% |
66% |
Median |
7 |
4% |
4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
60% |
98.7% |
Median |
6 |
36% |
39% |
|
7 |
3% |
3% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
83% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.3% |
17% |
|
2 |
0% |
16% |
|
3 |
16% |
16% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
32 |
50% |
30–33 |
30–33 |
29–33 |
29–34 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
28 |
31 |
38% |
29–32 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
28–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
30 |
1.5% |
28–31 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
27–32 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
28 |
0% |
26–29 |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–29 |
25–29 |
25–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
21–26 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–21 |
18–22 |
17–22 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
14–18 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
15 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–16 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
13 |
0% |
12–14 |
12–15 |
12–15 |
11–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
11 |
0% |
10–12 |
10–12 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
12% |
96% |
|
31 |
33% |
84% |
Last Result, Median |
32 |
38% |
50% |
Majority |
33 |
10% |
12% |
|
34 |
2% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
28 |
5% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
29 |
6% |
95% |
|
30 |
14% |
89% |
|
31 |
37% |
75% |
Median |
32 |
29% |
38% |
Majority |
33 |
8% |
9% |
|
34 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
13% |
98% |
|
29 |
29% |
85% |
Median |
30 |
43% |
56% |
|
31 |
11% |
13% |
|
32 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
26 |
17% |
98% |
|
27 |
27% |
81% |
|
28 |
37% |
54% |
Median |
29 |
14% |
17% |
|
30 |
3% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
16% |
97% |
|
27 |
39% |
81% |
Median |
28 |
38% |
43% |
|
29 |
5% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
6% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
24% |
94% |
|
26 |
36% |
70% |
Median |
27 |
29% |
34% |
|
28 |
5% |
6% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
23 |
8% |
95% |
|
24 |
16% |
87% |
Last Result |
25 |
40% |
71% |
Median |
26 |
25% |
31% |
|
27 |
6% |
6% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
23 |
8% |
99.3% |
|
24 |
36% |
91% |
Median |
25 |
43% |
55% |
|
26 |
11% |
12% |
|
27 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
23% |
97% |
|
24 |
36% |
74% |
Median |
25 |
33% |
38% |
|
26 |
4% |
4% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
22 |
5% |
99.3% |
|
23 |
25% |
94% |
Median |
24 |
49% |
69% |
Last Result |
25 |
18% |
20% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
21 |
23% |
95% |
|
22 |
35% |
72% |
|
23 |
28% |
38% |
Median |
24 |
9% |
9% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
9% |
99.2% |
|
19 |
16% |
90% |
|
20 |
47% |
74% |
Median |
21 |
24% |
27% |
|
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
17 |
11% |
99.6% |
|
18 |
30% |
88% |
|
19 |
39% |
58% |
Median |
20 |
15% |
19% |
|
21 |
4% |
5% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
17% |
93% |
|
16 |
41% |
76% |
Median |
17 |
32% |
35% |
Last Result |
18 |
2% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
13% |
99.0% |
|
14 |
28% |
86% |
|
15 |
50% |
59% |
Median |
16 |
8% |
9% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
2% |
100% |
|
12 |
20% |
98% |
|
13 |
35% |
78% |
|
14 |
35% |
44% |
Median |
15 |
8% |
9% |
|
16 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
10 |
19% |
99.5% |
|
11 |
53% |
80% |
Median |
12 |
25% |
27% |
|
13 |
3% |
3% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 10–23 September 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 2043
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.81%