Opinion Poll by MMR, 10–23 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.6% 24.4–26.9% 24.1–27.2% 23.8–27.5% 23.2–28.2%
Píratar 9.2% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 12.8% 11.9–13.8% 11.7–14.1% 11.4–14.3% 11.0–14.8%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 10.8% 10.0–11.8% 9.7–12.0% 9.5–12.2% 9.2–12.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.4% 8.6–10.3% 8.4–10.5% 8.2–10.7% 7.8–11.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 8.5% 7.8–9.4% 7.6–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.3% 7.6–9.2% 7.4–9.4% 7.2–9.6% 6.9–10.0%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.6% 3.1–4.2% 3.0–4.4% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 18–19 17–20 17–20 16–20
Píratar 6 10 9–11 9–11 9–12 9–12
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.9% 100% Last Result
17 8% 99.0%  
18 44% 91% Median
19 40% 47%  
20 6% 6%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 13% 99.9%  
10 42% 87% Median
11 41% 45%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100% Last Result
8 25% 98%  
9 61% 73% Median
10 12% 12%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 7% 100%  
7 41% 93% Last Result
8 36% 52% Median
9 15% 16%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 5% 100%  
6 75% 95% Median
7 20% 20%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 34% 99.5%  
6 62% 66% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.3% 100%  
5 60% 98.7% Median
6 36% 39%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 17%  
2 0% 16%  
3 16% 16%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 32 50% 30–33 30–33 29–33 29–34
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 31 38% 29–32 29–33 28–33 28–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 1.5% 28–31 28–31 28–31 27–32
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 28 0% 26–29 26–29 26–30 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 26–28 26–29 25–29 25–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 26 0% 25–27 24–28 24–28 24–29
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 25 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 25 0% 24–26 23–26 23–26 22–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 23–25 23–25 22–26 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–25 21–26
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 22 0% 21–23 20–24 20–24 19–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 20 0% 18–21 18–21 18–22 17–22
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 19 0% 17–20 17–20 17–21 17–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–17 14–18
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 15 0% 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–16
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 13 0% 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 11 0% 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–13

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 4% 99.9%  
30 12% 96%  
31 33% 84% Last Result, Median
32 38% 50% Majority
33 10% 12%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 5% 99.5% Last Result
29 6% 95%  
30 14% 89%  
31 37% 75% Median
32 29% 38% Majority
33 8% 9%  
34 0.5% 0.5%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.9%  
28 13% 98%  
29 29% 85% Median
30 43% 56%  
31 11% 13%  
32 1.4% 1.5% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 17% 98%  
27 27% 81%  
28 37% 54% Median
29 14% 17%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 16% 97%  
27 39% 81% Median
28 38% 43%  
29 5% 5%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100% Last Result
24 6% 99.6%  
25 24% 94%  
26 36% 70% Median
27 29% 34%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.8% 0.9%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 4% 99.5%  
23 8% 95%  
24 16% 87% Last Result
25 40% 71% Median
26 25% 31%  
27 6% 6%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.7% 100%  
23 8% 99.3%  
24 36% 91% Median
25 43% 55%  
26 11% 12%  
27 0.9% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 3% 99.8%  
23 23% 97%  
24 36% 74% Median
25 33% 38%  
26 4% 4%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.7% 100%  
22 5% 99.3%  
23 25% 94% Median
24 49% 69% Last Result
25 18% 20%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 4% 99.2%  
21 23% 95%  
22 35% 72%  
23 28% 38% Median
24 9% 9%  
25 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.9%  
18 9% 99.2%  
19 16% 90%  
20 47% 74% Median
21 24% 27%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 11% 99.6%  
18 30% 88%  
19 39% 58% Median
20 15% 19%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 7% 99.9%  
15 17% 93%  
16 41% 76% Median
17 32% 35% Last Result
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.9%  
13 13% 99.0%  
14 28% 86%  
15 50% 59% Median
16 8% 9%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 20% 98%  
13 35% 78%  
14 35% 44% Median
15 8% 9%  
16 0.8% 0.8%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 19% 99.5%  
11 53% 80% Median
12 25% 27%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations