Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–30 September 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.9% |
23.2–24.7% |
23.0–24.9% |
22.8–25.1% |
22.5–25.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.9% |
14.3–15.6% |
14.1–15.8% |
14.0–15.9% |
13.7–16.2% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.7% |
13.1–14.4% |
13.0–14.5% |
12.8–14.7% |
12.5–15.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.2% |
12.6–13.9% |
12.5–14.0% |
12.3–14.2% |
12.1–14.5% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.4% |
9.9–11.0% |
9.7–11.1% |
9.6–11.3% |
9.4–11.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
9.4% |
8.9–10.0% |
8.8–10.1% |
8.7–10.2% |
8.4–10.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
6.7% |
6.3–7.2% |
6.2–7.3% |
6.1–7.4% |
5.9–7.7% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.9% |
3.6–4.3% |
3.5–4.4% |
3.4–4.5% |
3.3–4.7% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.7% |
3.4–4.1% |
3.3–4.2% |
3.2–4.3% |
3.1–4.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
16 |
48% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
17 |
40% |
52% |
Median |
18 |
11% |
11% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
10 |
58% |
98.5% |
Median |
11 |
41% |
41% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
9 |
35% |
99.7% |
|
10 |
65% |
65% |
Median |
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
3% |
100% |
|
9 |
93% |
97% |
Median |
10 |
4% |
4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
7 |
97% |
99.0% |
Median |
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
94% |
99.6% |
Median |
7 |
5% |
6% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
75% |
100% |
Median |
5 |
25% |
25% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.5% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
36 |
100% |
35–37 |
35–37 |
35–37 |
34–37 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
31 |
2% |
30–31 |
30–31 |
30–31 |
29–32 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
1.3% |
29–31 |
29–31 |
29–31 |
29–32 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
27–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0% |
27–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
25–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
26–27 |
26–27 |
26–27 |
25–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–27 |
25–27 |
25–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
22–24 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
19–20 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
19 |
0% |
18–19 |
18–19 |
18–20 |
17–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–16 |
15–16 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
14 |
0% |
13–14 |
13–14 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
35 |
35% |
99.1% |
|
36 |
22% |
64% |
Median |
37 |
42% |
42% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
30 |
46% |
98% |
|
31 |
50% |
52% |
Median |
32 |
1.5% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
11% |
100% |
|
30 |
43% |
89% |
Median |
31 |
44% |
45% |
|
32 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
28 |
35% |
99.3% |
|
29 |
23% |
64% |
Median |
30 |
41% |
41% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
43% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
21% |
57% |
Median |
28 |
35% |
36% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
26 |
9% |
99.3% |
|
27 |
79% |
91% |
Median |
28 |
11% |
12% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
2% |
100% |
|
26 |
68% |
98% |
|
27 |
29% |
29% |
Last Result, Median |
28 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
32% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
26 |
26% |
68% |
Median |
27 |
41% |
42% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
14% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
43% |
86% |
Median |
25 |
42% |
43% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
23 |
47% |
99.5% |
|
24 |
41% |
53% |
Median |
25 |
11% |
12% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
22 |
45% |
99.6% |
|
23 |
41% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
13% |
14% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
45% |
99.7% |
|
21 |
22% |
55% |
Median |
22 |
32% |
33% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
12% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
81% |
88% |
Median |
21 |
6% |
7% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
35% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
26% |
65% |
Median |
21 |
39% |
39% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
1.0% |
100% |
Last Result |
18 |
35% |
99.0% |
|
19 |
61% |
64% |
Median |
20 |
3% |
3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
32% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
65% |
68% |
Median |
17 |
3% |
3% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
14% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
81% |
86% |
Median |
15 |
4% |
4% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–30 September 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 5117
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.14%