Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–30 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.9% 23.2–24.7% 23.0–24.9% 22.8–25.1% 22.5–25.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.9% 14.3–15.6% 14.1–15.8% 14.0–15.9% 13.7–16.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.7% 13.1–14.4% 13.0–14.5% 12.8–14.7% 12.5–15.0%
Píratar 9.2% 13.2% 12.6–13.9% 12.5–14.0% 12.3–14.2% 12.1–14.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.4% 9.9–11.0% 9.7–11.1% 9.6–11.3% 9.4–11.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.4% 8.9–10.0% 8.8–10.1% 8.7–10.2% 8.4–10.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 6.7% 6.3–7.2% 6.2–7.3% 6.1–7.4% 5.9–7.7%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.9% 3.6–4.3% 3.5–4.4% 3.4–4.5% 3.3–4.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.7% 3.4–4.1% 3.3–4.2% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–18
Samfylkingin 7 10 10–11 10–11 10–11 9–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–10
Píratar 6 9 9 9 8–10 8–10
Viðreisn 4 7 7 7 7 6–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 6 6–7 6–7 6–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 48% 99.4% Last Result
17 40% 52% Median
18 11% 11%  
19 0.5% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 1.5% 100%  
10 58% 98.5% Median
11 41% 41%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 35% 99.7%  
10 65% 65% Median
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 3% 100%  
9 93% 97% Median
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 1.0% 100%  
7 97% 99.0% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 94% 99.6% Median
7 5% 6% Last Result
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 75% 100% Median
5 25% 25%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 36 100% 35–37 35–37 35–37 34–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 2% 30–31 30–31 30–31 29–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 30 1.3% 29–31 29–31 29–31 29–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 29 0% 28–30 28–30 28–30 27–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–28 26–28 26–28 26–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 27–28 26–28 26–28 25–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 26–27 26–27 26–27 25–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–27 25–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 23–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 23–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 20–22 20–22 20–22 20–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 20 0% 19–20 19–21 19–21 19–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–21 19–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 19 0% 18–19 18–19 18–20 17–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 16 0% 15–16 15–16 15–17 15–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–14 13–14 13–15 13–15

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0% 100%  
34 0.8% 100%  
35 35% 99.1%  
36 22% 64% Median
37 42% 42%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 1.5% 100%  
30 46% 98%  
31 50% 52% Median
32 1.5% 2% Majority
33 0.5% 0.5%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 11% 100%  
30 43% 89% Median
31 44% 45%  
32 1.3% 1.3% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.7% 100%  
28 35% 99.3%  
29 23% 64% Median
30 41% 41%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 43% 99.9%  
27 21% 57% Median
28 35% 36%  
29 0.8% 0.8%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.7% 100%  
26 9% 99.3%  
27 79% 91% Median
28 11% 12%  
29 0.8% 0.8%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 2% 100%  
26 68% 98%  
27 29% 29% Last Result, Median
28 0.3% 0.8%  
29 0.5% 0.5%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 32% 99.9% Last Result
26 26% 68% Median
27 41% 42%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 14% 99.9%  
24 43% 86% Median
25 42% 43%  
26 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.5% 100%  
23 47% 99.5%  
24 41% 53% Median
25 11% 12%  
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 45% 99.6%  
23 41% 54% Last Result, Median
24 13% 14%  
25 0.6% 0.6%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 45% 99.7%  
21 22% 55% Median
22 32% 33%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 12% 99.9%  
20 81% 88% Median
21 6% 7%  
22 0.5% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100% Last Result
19 35% 99.8%  
20 26% 65% Median
21 39% 39%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 1.0% 100% Last Result
18 35% 99.0%  
19 61% 64% Median
20 3% 3%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 32% 99.8%  
16 65% 68% Median
17 3% 3%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 14% 99.9%  
14 81% 86% Median
15 4% 4%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations