Opinion Poll by MMR, 23–28 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.9% 20.2–23.7% 19.7–24.2% 19.3–24.6% 18.6–25.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.3% 13.1–17.7% 12.4–18.5%
Píratar 9.2% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.5% 11.5–15.9% 10.9–16.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 11.6% 10.3–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.7–13.8% 9.1–14.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.2% 9.0–11.6% 8.7–11.9% 8.4–12.3% 7.9–13.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.6% 8.5–11.0% 8.2–11.4% 7.9–11.7% 7.4–12.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 8.3% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.9% 6.6–10.2% 6.2–10.8%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.2% 3.1–6.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 14–17 13–17 13–17 13–18
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–11
Miðflokkurinn 7 9 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–10
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 5% 99.8%  
14 22% 94%  
15 37% 72% Median
16 23% 35% Last Result
17 10% 12%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100% Last Result
8 2% 99.9%  
9 12% 98%  
10 40% 86% Median
11 36% 47%  
12 9% 11%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 2% 100%  
8 20% 98%  
9 43% 78% Median
10 28% 34%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 5% 99.9%  
7 19% 95% Last Result
8 16% 76%  
9 53% 60% Median
10 7% 7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100%  
6 31% 95%  
7 43% 64% Median
8 18% 21% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.8% 0.9%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 10% 99.9%  
6 49% 90% Median
7 34% 41%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 7% 99.9%  
5 47% 93% Median
6 37% 45%  
7 8% 8%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 33%  
2 0% 33%  
3 27% 33%  
4 5% 6%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 33 31 39% 29–33 29–34 28–34 27–35
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 31 47% 30–33 29–34 28–34 27–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 30 25% 29–32 28–33 28–33 27–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 28 0.2% 25–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 25 0% 23–27 23–27 22–28 21–28
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 24 0% 23–26 22–26 21–27 20–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 22–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 23 0% 21–25 21–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 20–24 20–24 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 19–25
Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 21 0% 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 21 0% 19–22 19–23 18–23 18–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 15 0% 13–16 13–17 12–17 12–18
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 14 0% 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 13 0% 11–14 11–14 10–14 10–15

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 1.0% 99.8%  
28 4% 98.8%  
29 8% 95%  
30 18% 87%  
31 29% 69% Median
32 21% 39% Majority
33 13% 18% Last Result
34 4% 5%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.4% Last Result
29 6% 96%  
30 12% 90% Median
31 31% 78%  
32 20% 47% Majority
33 19% 27%  
34 6% 8%  
35 1.0% 1.2%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.7%  
28 6% 98%  
29 22% 92%  
30 26% 71%  
31 20% 45% Last Result, Median
32 18% 25% Majority
33 6% 7%  
34 0.8% 0.9%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.9%  
25 12% 98.7%  
26 16% 86%  
27 17% 70% Median
28 25% 53%  
29 19% 28%  
30 7% 9%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 5% 98% Last Result
24 9% 94%  
25 32% 85% Median
26 31% 53%  
27 12% 21%  
28 8% 9%  
29 1.0% 1.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.0% 99.9%  
22 3% 98.9%  
23 11% 96%  
24 15% 85% Last Result, Median
25 32% 70%  
26 23% 38%  
27 11% 15%  
28 4% 4%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.4%  
22 6% 97%  
23 19% 91%  
24 24% 72% Median
25 31% 48% Last Result
26 13% 17%  
27 4% 4%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.4% 99.8%  
21 4% 98%  
22 14% 94%  
23 27% 80% Last Result
24 29% 53% Median
25 19% 23%  
26 4% 5%  
27 1.2% 1.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.3%  
21 16% 96%  
22 24% 80% Median
23 27% 56%  
24 18% 29%  
25 9% 11%  
26 2% 2% Last Result
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 15% 98%  
21 20% 83%  
22 24% 63% Median
23 24% 39%  
24 12% 15% Last Result
25 2% 3%  
26 0.6% 0.7%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 3% 99.5%  
20 22% 96% Last Result
21 20% 74% Median
22 31% 54%  
23 18% 24%  
24 5% 6%  
25 1.2% 1.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.8%  
18 4% 98%  
19 13% 94%  
20 28% 81%  
21 20% 53% Median
22 25% 33%  
23 7% 8%  
24 0.7% 0.9%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.7%  
19 18% 97%  
20 27% 79% Median
21 26% 52%  
22 18% 26%  
23 6% 8%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 8% 98%  
15 24% 90% Median
16 40% 66%  
17 16% 26%  
18 8% 9% Last Result
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 14% 97%  
14 30% 84% Median
15 31% 53%  
16 16% 22%  
17 5% 6% Last Result
18 1.3% 1.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 4% 99.6%  
12 8% 95%  
13 23% 88%  
14 34% 64% Median
15 23% 30%  
16 6% 7%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 5% 99.7%  
11 26% 95%  
12 19% 69% Median
13 37% 51%  
14 12% 14%  
15 1.3% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations