Opinion Poll by MMR, 23–28 October 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.9% |
20.2–23.7% |
19.7–24.2% |
19.3–24.6% |
18.6–25.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.2% |
13.8–16.8% |
13.4–17.3% |
13.1–17.7% |
12.4–18.5% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.5% |
12.2–15.0% |
11.8–15.5% |
11.5–15.9% |
10.9–16.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
11.6% |
10.3–13.0% |
10.0–13.4% |
9.7–13.8% |
9.1–14.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
10.2% |
9.0–11.6% |
8.7–11.9% |
8.4–12.3% |
7.9–13.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.6% |
8.5–11.0% |
8.2–11.4% |
7.9–11.7% |
7.4–12.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
8.3% |
7.2–9.5% |
6.9–9.9% |
6.6–10.2% |
6.2–10.8% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.6% |
3.8–5.6% |
3.6–5.9% |
3.4–6.2% |
3.1–6.7% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.8% |
3.1–4.7% |
2.9–4.9% |
2.7–5.2% |
2.4–5.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
22% |
94% |
|
15 |
37% |
72% |
Median |
16 |
23% |
35% |
Last Result |
17 |
10% |
12% |
|
18 |
2% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
12% |
98% |
|
10 |
40% |
86% |
Median |
11 |
36% |
47% |
|
12 |
9% |
11% |
|
13 |
2% |
2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
20% |
98% |
|
9 |
43% |
78% |
Median |
10 |
28% |
34% |
|
11 |
6% |
7% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
19% |
95% |
Last Result |
8 |
16% |
76% |
|
9 |
53% |
60% |
Median |
10 |
7% |
7% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
5% |
100% |
|
6 |
31% |
95% |
|
7 |
43% |
64% |
Median |
8 |
18% |
21% |
Last Result |
9 |
2% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
10% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
49% |
90% |
Median |
7 |
34% |
41% |
|
8 |
7% |
7% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
47% |
93% |
Median |
6 |
37% |
45% |
|
7 |
8% |
8% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
67% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.2% |
33% |
|
2 |
0% |
33% |
|
3 |
27% |
33% |
|
4 |
5% |
6% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
3% |
|
2 |
0% |
3% |
|
3 |
3% |
3% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
33 |
31 |
39% |
29–33 |
29–34 |
28–34 |
27–35 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
28 |
31 |
47% |
30–33 |
29–34 |
28–34 |
27–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
25% |
29–32 |
28–33 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
28 |
0.2% |
25–29 |
25–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
21–28 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
20–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–17 |
12–17 |
12–18 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
14 |
0% |
12–15 |
12–16 |
11–16 |
11–17 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
13 |
0% |
11–14 |
11–14 |
10–14 |
10–15 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
29 |
8% |
95% |
|
30 |
18% |
87% |
|
31 |
29% |
69% |
Median |
32 |
21% |
39% |
Majority |
33 |
13% |
18% |
Last Result |
34 |
4% |
5% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
3% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
29 |
6% |
96% |
|
30 |
12% |
90% |
Median |
31 |
31% |
78% |
|
32 |
20% |
47% |
Majority |
33 |
19% |
27% |
|
34 |
6% |
8% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
6% |
98% |
|
29 |
22% |
92% |
|
30 |
26% |
71% |
|
31 |
20% |
45% |
Last Result, Median |
32 |
18% |
25% |
Majority |
33 |
6% |
7% |
|
34 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
12% |
98.7% |
|
26 |
16% |
86% |
|
27 |
17% |
70% |
Median |
28 |
25% |
53% |
|
29 |
19% |
28% |
|
30 |
7% |
9% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
5% |
98% |
Last Result |
24 |
9% |
94% |
|
25 |
32% |
85% |
Median |
26 |
31% |
53% |
|
27 |
12% |
21% |
|
28 |
8% |
9% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
23 |
11% |
96% |
|
24 |
15% |
85% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
32% |
70% |
|
26 |
23% |
38% |
|
27 |
11% |
15% |
|
28 |
4% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
6% |
97% |
|
23 |
19% |
91% |
|
24 |
24% |
72% |
Median |
25 |
31% |
48% |
Last Result |
26 |
13% |
17% |
|
27 |
4% |
4% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
4% |
98% |
|
22 |
14% |
94% |
|
23 |
27% |
80% |
Last Result |
24 |
29% |
53% |
Median |
25 |
19% |
23% |
|
26 |
4% |
5% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
21 |
16% |
96% |
|
22 |
24% |
80% |
Median |
23 |
27% |
56% |
|
24 |
18% |
29% |
|
25 |
9% |
11% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
15% |
98% |
|
21 |
20% |
83% |
|
22 |
24% |
63% |
Median |
23 |
24% |
39% |
|
24 |
12% |
15% |
Last Result |
25 |
2% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
20 |
22% |
96% |
Last Result |
21 |
20% |
74% |
Median |
22 |
31% |
54% |
|
23 |
18% |
24% |
|
24 |
5% |
6% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
4% |
98% |
|
19 |
13% |
94% |
|
20 |
28% |
81% |
|
21 |
20% |
53% |
Median |
22 |
25% |
33% |
|
23 |
7% |
8% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
18% |
97% |
|
20 |
27% |
79% |
Median |
21 |
26% |
52% |
|
22 |
18% |
26% |
|
23 |
6% |
8% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
8% |
98% |
|
15 |
24% |
90% |
Median |
16 |
40% |
66% |
|
17 |
16% |
26% |
|
18 |
8% |
9% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
13 |
14% |
97% |
|
14 |
30% |
84% |
Median |
15 |
31% |
53% |
|
16 |
16% |
22% |
|
17 |
5% |
6% |
Last Result |
18 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
11 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
12 |
8% |
95% |
|
13 |
23% |
88% |
|
14 |
34% |
64% |
Median |
15 |
23% |
30% |
|
16 |
6% |
7% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
10 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
11 |
26% |
95% |
|
12 |
19% |
69% |
Median |
13 |
37% |
51% |
|
14 |
12% |
14% |
|
15 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 23–28 October 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 933
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.62%