Opinion Poll by Gallup, 30 September–1 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.6% 22.9–24.3% 22.7–24.5% 22.5–24.7% 22.2–25.0%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.8% 15.3–16.5% 15.1–16.6% 15.0–16.8% 14.7–17.1%
Píratar 9.2% 12.1% 11.6–12.7% 11.5–12.8% 11.3–13.0% 11.1–13.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.9% 11.4–12.5% 11.3–12.7% 11.1–12.8% 10.9–13.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.6% 11.1–12.2% 11.0–12.3% 10.8–12.5% 10.6–12.7%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.9% 9.4–10.4% 9.3–10.6% 9.2–10.7% 9.0–11.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.7% 7.3–8.2% 7.2–8.3% 7.1–8.4% 6.9–8.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.5% 4.2–4.9% 4.1–5.0% 4.0–5.1% 3.9–5.3%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 2.7% 2.5–3.0% 2.4–3.1% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 16–17 16–17 15–17 15–17
Samfylkingin 7 11 11–12 10–12 10–12 10–12
Píratar 6 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–10
Viðreisn 4 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 5 5 5 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0–3
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 4% 100%  
16 75% 96% Last Result, Median
17 21% 21%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 8% 99.7%  
11 57% 91% Median
12 34% 34%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 2% 100%  
8 86% 98% Median
9 12% 12%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 4% 100%  
8 80% 96% Median
9 4% 16%  
10 12% 12%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 43% 100%  
8 54% 57% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 56% 100% Median
7 28% 44% Last Result
8 15% 15%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.5% 100%  
5 96% 98.5% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Median
1 0% 1.4%  
2 0% 1.4%  
3 1.4% 1.4%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 36 100% 34–36 34–36 34–36 33–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 31 29% 30–32 30–32 30–32 28–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 29 0% 29–31 29–31 28–31 28–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 27 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 26–30
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 28 0% 27–29 26–29 26–29 25–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 27–28 26–28 26–28 25–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–27 23–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 24–26 23–26 23–26 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 24–26 24–26 23–26 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–24 23–25 23–25 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 21–22 21–22 20–22 20–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–21 18–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 19–21 18–21 18–21 17–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–16 13–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 13 0% 13–15 12–15 12–15 12–15

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 1.5% 99.9%  
34 32% 98%  
35 14% 67% Median
36 52% 53%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.6% 100%  
29 1.5% 99.4%  
30 16% 98% Median
31 54% 82%  
32 28% 29% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 4% 99.8%  
29 64% 96% Median
30 19% 32%  
31 13% 13%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.9% 100%  
27 53% 99.1% Median
28 14% 46%  
29 31% 32%  
30 0.7% 0.7%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100% Last Result
25 1.1% 99.9%  
26 7% 98.8%  
27 35% 92% Median
28 45% 57%  
29 12% 12%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.8% 100%  
26 6% 99.2%  
27 44% 93% Median
28 49% 50%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.6% 100%  
24 2% 99.4%  
25 15% 98% Last Result, Median
26 54% 82%  
27 28% 28%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.9% 100%  
23 8% 99.0%  
24 44% 91% Median
25 35% 47%  
26 12% 12% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 4% 99.9%  
24 63% 96% Median
25 19% 32%  
26 13% 13%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.4% 100%  
23 31% 99.6%  
24 60% 68% Median
25 7% 8%  
26 1.1% 1.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.7% 100%  
22 54% 99.3% Median
23 14% 45% Last Result
24 30% 31%  
25 0.9% 0.9%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 3% 100%  
21 75% 97% Median
22 21% 21%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 44% 98% Median
20 24% 55%  
21 30% 30%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 1.2% 100%  
18 7% 98.8% Last Result
19 45% 91% Median
20 35% 46%  
21 12% 12%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 5% 99.9%  
16 68% 95% Median
17 15% 27% Last Result
18 12% 12%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 44% 98% Median
15 25% 55%  
16 29% 29%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 5% 99.9%  
13 77% 95% Median
14 6% 18%  
15 12% 12%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations