Opinion Poll by MMR, 6–11 November 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
25.0% |
23.2–26.9% |
22.7–27.4% |
22.3–27.9% |
21.5–28.8% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.8% |
15.3–18.4% |
14.8–18.9% |
14.5–19.3% |
13.8–20.1% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
14.3% |
12.9–15.8% |
12.5–16.3% |
12.2–16.7% |
11.5–17.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.9% |
8.8–11.3% |
8.5–11.7% |
8.2–12.0% |
7.7–12.7% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
9.1% |
8.0–10.4% |
7.7–10.8% |
7.4–11.1% |
6.9–11.8% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
8.4% |
7.4–9.7% |
7.1–10.1% |
6.8–10.4% |
6.3–11.1% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
7.5% |
6.5–8.7% |
6.2–9.0% |
5.9–9.3% |
5.5–10.0% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–5.0% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.5% |
2.6–6.0% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.9% |
3.2–4.8% |
3.0–5.1% |
2.8–5.3% |
2.5–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
12% |
98% |
Last Result |
17 |
28% |
85% |
|
18 |
33% |
57% |
Median |
19 |
15% |
23% |
|
20 |
7% |
9% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
10 |
9% |
99.0% |
|
11 |
38% |
90% |
|
12 |
29% |
52% |
Median |
13 |
21% |
23% |
|
14 |
2% |
3% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
8 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
9 |
34% |
95% |
|
10 |
42% |
61% |
Median |
11 |
17% |
19% |
|
12 |
2% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
9% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
38% |
91% |
|
7 |
32% |
53% |
Median |
8 |
16% |
21% |
Last Result |
9 |
4% |
5% |
|
10 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
5 |
16% |
99.1% |
|
6 |
57% |
83% |
Median |
7 |
23% |
26% |
Last Result |
8 |
2% |
4% |
|
9 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
35% |
96% |
|
6 |
51% |
61% |
Median |
7 |
10% |
11% |
|
8 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
4 |
28% |
98.5% |
|
5 |
53% |
71% |
Median |
6 |
17% |
18% |
|
7 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
2 |
0% |
7% |
|
3 |
7% |
7% |
|
4 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
94% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
6% |
|
2 |
0% |
6% |
|
3 |
5% |
6% |
|
4 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
28 |
32 |
62% |
30–34 |
30–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
27% |
29–32 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
33 |
29 |
7% |
27–31 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
29 |
6% |
28–31 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
29 |
6% |
28–31 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
25 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–20 |
15–20 |
14–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–19 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
13–17 |
12–17 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
12 |
0% |
10–13 |
10–13 |
10–14 |
9–15 |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
11 |
0% |
10–12 |
9–13 |
9–13 |
8–14 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
29 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
30 |
12% |
96% |
|
31 |
21% |
84% |
|
32 |
19% |
62% |
Majority |
33 |
28% |
44% |
Median |
34 |
14% |
15% |
|
35 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
29 |
17% |
96% |
|
30 |
32% |
78% |
|
31 |
19% |
46% |
Last Result, Median |
32 |
18% |
27% |
Majority |
33 |
8% |
9% |
|
34 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
10% |
98% |
|
28 |
12% |
88% |
|
29 |
29% |
76% |
|
30 |
24% |
46% |
Median |
31 |
15% |
22% |
|
32 |
6% |
7% |
Majority |
33 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
6% |
98% |
|
28 |
18% |
92% |
|
29 |
33% |
74% |
|
30 |
22% |
41% |
Median |
31 |
13% |
19% |
|
32 |
5% |
6% |
Majority |
33 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
7% |
98% |
|
28 |
21% |
91% |
|
29 |
23% |
71% |
|
30 |
21% |
48% |
Median |
31 |
21% |
27% |
|
32 |
5% |
6% |
Majority |
33 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
7% |
98% |
Last Result |
25 |
20% |
91% |
|
26 |
21% |
71% |
|
27 |
30% |
50% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
19% |
|
29 |
2% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
23 |
18% |
95% |
|
24 |
37% |
77% |
Last Result |
25 |
19% |
40% |
Median |
26 |
12% |
21% |
|
27 |
8% |
9% |
|
28 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
8% |
98.6% |
|
22 |
15% |
90% |
|
23 |
37% |
75% |
|
24 |
20% |
38% |
Median |
25 |
15% |
19% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
11% |
96% |
|
23 |
23% |
86% |
Last Result |
24 |
30% |
62% |
Median |
25 |
24% |
33% |
|
26 |
7% |
9% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
21 |
6% |
98.7% |
|
22 |
15% |
93% |
|
23 |
34% |
78% |
|
24 |
25% |
44% |
Median |
25 |
11% |
19% |
|
26 |
7% |
8% |
|
27 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
5% |
99.1% |
|
21 |
13% |
94% |
|
22 |
28% |
82% |
|
23 |
22% |
54% |
Median |
24 |
25% |
32% |
|
25 |
5% |
7% |
Last Result |
26 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
5% |
98.9% |
|
21 |
15% |
94% |
|
22 |
28% |
80% |
|
23 |
25% |
52% |
Median |
24 |
19% |
27% |
|
25 |
6% |
8% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
16 |
15% |
97% |
|
17 |
23% |
82% |
|
18 |
37% |
59% |
Median |
19 |
13% |
22% |
|
20 |
8% |
10% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
15 |
17% |
97% |
|
16 |
31% |
81% |
|
17 |
25% |
50% |
Median |
18 |
23% |
25% |
Last Result |
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
14% |
98% |
|
14 |
29% |
84% |
|
15 |
28% |
55% |
Median |
16 |
23% |
26% |
|
17 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
14% |
98% |
|
11 |
32% |
84% |
|
12 |
33% |
52% |
Median |
13 |
14% |
18% |
|
14 |
4% |
5% |
|
15 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
6% |
99.3% |
|
10 |
19% |
94% |
|
11 |
47% |
74% |
Median |
12 |
22% |
28% |
|
13 |
5% |
6% |
|
14 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–11 November 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 925
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.51%