Opinion Poll by MMR, 6–11 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.0% 23.2–26.9% 22.7–27.4% 22.3–27.9% 21.5–28.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.8% 15.3–18.4% 14.8–18.9% 14.5–19.3% 13.8–20.1%
Píratar 9.2% 14.3% 12.9–15.8% 12.5–16.3% 12.2–16.7% 11.5–17.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.9% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.7% 8.2–12.0% 7.7–12.7%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.8% 7.4–11.1% 6.9–11.8%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.4% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.4% 6.3–11.1%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 5.9–9.3% 5.5–10.0%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Samfylkingin 7 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–14
Píratar 6 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–12
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–9
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 12% 98% Last Result
17 28% 85%  
18 33% 57% Median
19 15% 23%  
20 7% 9%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 1.0% 100%  
10 9% 99.0%  
11 38% 90%  
12 29% 52% Median
13 21% 23%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.3% 100%  
8 5% 99.7%  
9 34% 95%  
10 42% 61% Median
11 17% 19%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 9% 99.9%  
6 38% 91%  
7 32% 53% Median
8 16% 21% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.8% 100%  
5 16% 99.1%  
6 57% 83% Median
7 23% 26% Last Result
8 2% 4%  
9 1.4% 1.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100% Last Result
5 35% 96%  
6 51% 61% Median
7 10% 11%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.4% 100%  
4 28% 98.5%  
5 53% 71% Median
6 17% 18%  
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 8%  
2 0% 7%  
3 7% 7%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 5% 6%  
4 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 32 62% 30–34 30–34 29–34 28–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 30 27% 29–32 29–33 28–33 27–34
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 33 29 7% 27–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 29 6% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 6% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 21–28
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 23 0% 22–25 21–25 21–26 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 25 23 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 18 0% 16–19 16–20 15–20 14–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–19
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 15 0% 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–17
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 12 0% 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–15
Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 11 0% 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–14

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
29 3% 99.2%  
30 12% 96%  
31 21% 84%  
32 19% 62% Majority
33 28% 44% Median
34 14% 15%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 3% 99.0%  
29 17% 96%  
30 32% 78%  
31 19% 46% Last Result, Median
32 18% 27% Majority
33 8% 9%  
34 1.5% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 10% 98%  
28 12% 88%  
29 29% 76%  
30 24% 46% Median
31 15% 22%  
32 6% 7% Majority
33 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 2% 99.7%  
27 6% 98%  
28 18% 92%  
29 33% 74%  
30 22% 41% Median
31 13% 19%  
32 5% 6% Majority
33 1.2% 1.3%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.5% 100%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 7% 98%  
28 21% 91%  
29 23% 71%  
30 21% 48% Median
31 21% 27%  
32 5% 6% Majority
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 1.4% 99.6%  
24 7% 98% Last Result
25 20% 91%  
26 21% 71%  
27 30% 50% Median
28 17% 19%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.9%  
22 4% 99.1%  
23 18% 95%  
24 37% 77% Last Result
25 19% 40% Median
26 12% 21%  
27 8% 9%  
28 1.3% 1.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.8%  
21 8% 98.6%  
22 15% 90%  
23 37% 75%  
24 20% 38% Median
25 15% 19%  
26 3% 3% Last Result
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 11% 96%  
23 23% 86% Last Result
24 30% 62% Median
25 24% 33%  
26 7% 9%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.8% Last Result
21 6% 98.7%  
22 15% 93%  
23 34% 78%  
24 25% 44% Median
25 11% 19%  
26 7% 8%  
27 1.3% 1.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.8%  
20 5% 99.1%  
21 13% 94%  
22 28% 82%  
23 22% 54% Median
24 25% 32%  
25 5% 7% Last Result
26 1.0% 1.2%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.0% 99.9%  
20 5% 98.9%  
21 15% 94%  
22 28% 80%  
23 25% 52% Median
24 19% 27%  
25 6% 8%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.2%  
16 15% 97%  
17 23% 82%  
18 37% 59% Median
19 13% 22%  
20 8% 10%  
21 1.1% 1.4%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 17% 97%  
16 31% 81%  
17 25% 50% Median
18 23% 25% Last Result
19 2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 14% 98%  
14 29% 84%  
15 28% 55% Median
16 23% 26%  
17 3% 3% Last Result
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 14% 98%  
11 32% 84%  
12 33% 52% Median
13 14% 18%  
14 4% 5%  
15 0.9% 0.9%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.6% 99.9%  
9 6% 99.3%  
10 19% 94%  
11 47% 74% Median
12 22% 28%  
13 5% 6%  
14 0.6% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations