Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2–30 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.7% 23.0–24.5% 22.8–24.7% 22.6–24.9% 22.2–25.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 17.1% 16.5–17.8% 16.3–18.0% 16.1–18.2% 15.8–18.5%
Píratar 9.2% 12.4% 11.8–13.0% 11.7–13.2% 11.5–13.4% 11.3–13.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.8% 11.2–12.4% 11.1–12.6% 10.9–12.7% 10.7–13.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.7% 9.2–10.3% 9.1–10.4% 8.9–10.6% 8.7–10.8%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.8% 8.3–9.3% 8.2–9.5% 8.0–9.6% 7.8–9.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.6% 8.1–9.1% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.4% 7.6–9.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.1% 3.8–4.5% 3.7–4.6% 3.6–4.7% 3.4–4.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.7% 3.4–4.1% 3.3–4.2% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–17 16–17 16–17 15–18
Samfylkingin 7 12 12 11–12 11–13 11–13
Píratar 6 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 8 8–9 7–9 7–9
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 26% 99.5% Last Result
17 71% 74% Median
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 9% 99.9%  
12 88% 91% Median
13 3% 3%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.4% 100%  
8 66% 99.6% Median
9 33% 34%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 4% 100%  
8 89% 96% Median
9 7% 7%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 66% 100% Median
7 34% 34%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 16% 100%  
6 82% 84% Median
7 2% 2% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 27% 100%  
6 73% 73% Median
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 35 100% 34–35 34–36 34–36 33–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 32 56% 31–32 31–32 30–33 30–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 1.4% 30–31 30–31 29–31 29–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 0% 28–29 27–29 27–30 27–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 28 0% 28–29 27–29 27–29 27–30
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 28 0% 28–29 28–29 27–29 27–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 25–26 25–26 25–27 24–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 25–26 25–27 25–27 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 24–25 24–25 24–25 24–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–23 22–23 21–23 21–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 22–23 22–23 21–23 21–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 20 19–21 19–21 18–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 20 0% 19–20 19–20 18–21 18–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 16–17 16–17 16–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–14 13–14 13–15 12–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 13–14 13–15 13–15 12–15

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0.9% 100%  
34 40% 99.1% Median
35 53% 59%  
36 6% 6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 3% 99.9%  
31 41% 97%  
32 53% 56% Median, Majority
33 3% 3% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 3% 100%  
30 45% 97%  
31 51% 53% Median
32 1.4% 1.4% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 5% 100%  
28 24% 95%  
29 67% 71% Median
30 4% 4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 6% 99.9%  
28 53% 94%  
29 40% 41% Median
30 0.8% 0.8%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0.3% 100%  
27 4% 99.6%  
28 64% 96% Median
29 30% 32%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 30% 98%  
26 64% 68% Last Result, Median
27 4% 4%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 2% 100%  
25 20% 98% Last Result
26 73% 78% Median
27 6% 6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.5% 100%  
24 23% 99.5%  
25 74% 76% Median
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.1% 100%  
22 15% 99.9%  
23 62% 85% Median
24 22% 24%  
25 1.5% 1.5%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 3% 100%  
22 46% 97%  
23 49% 51% Median
24 2% 2% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 3% 100%  
22 33% 97%  
23 63% 64% Last Result, Median
24 1.2% 1.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100% Last Result
19 9% 99.3%  
20 83% 90% Median
21 7% 7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 3% 100%  
19 35% 97%  
20 59% 62% Median
21 3% 3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 62% 98% Median
17 32% 35% Last Result
18 3% 3%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 24% 98%  
14 70% 74% Median
15 4% 4%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.0% 100%  
13 15% 99.0%  
14 78% 84% Median
15 6% 6%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations