Opinion Poll by MMR, 26 November–3 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
27.1% |
25.3–29.0% |
24.8–29.6% |
24.4–30.0% |
23.5–31.0% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.9% |
12.5–15.4% |
12.1–15.9% |
11.8–16.2% |
11.2–17.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.9% |
12.5–15.4% |
12.1–15.9% |
11.8–16.2% |
11.2–17.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.5% |
8.4–10.9% |
8.1–11.2% |
7.8–11.6% |
7.3–12.2% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
7.6% |
6.6–8.9% |
6.3–9.2% |
6.1–9.5% |
5.7–10.1% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.5% |
6.5–8.7% |
6.2–9.1% |
6.0–9.4% |
5.6–10.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
7.0% |
6.0–8.2% |
5.8–8.5% |
5.5–8.8% |
5.1–9.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
6.2% |
5.3–7.4% |
5.1–7.7% |
4.9–8.0% |
4.5–8.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
3.9–6.3% |
3.8–6.6% |
3.4–7.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
17 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
18 |
10% |
97% |
|
19 |
22% |
87% |
|
20 |
28% |
65% |
Median |
21 |
22% |
37% |
|
22 |
14% |
15% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
20% |
96% |
|
9 |
25% |
76% |
|
10 |
46% |
51% |
Median |
11 |
4% |
5% |
|
12 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
3% |
100% |
|
8 |
27% |
97% |
|
9 |
47% |
70% |
Median |
10 |
20% |
24% |
|
11 |
3% |
3% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
1.0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
31% |
99.0% |
|
6 |
48% |
68% |
Median |
7 |
18% |
20% |
|
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
2% |
100% |
|
4 |
42% |
98% |
|
5 |
45% |
56% |
Median |
6 |
10% |
11% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
4% |
100% |
|
4 |
37% |
96% |
|
5 |
48% |
59% |
Median |
6 |
9% |
11% |
|
7 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
3 |
9% |
99.7% |
|
4 |
61% |
91% |
Median |
5 |
27% |
30% |
|
6 |
3% |
3% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
5% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
2 |
0% |
94% |
|
3 |
33% |
94% |
|
4 |
51% |
61% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
10% |
10% |
|
6 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
45% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.4% |
55% |
|
2 |
0% |
55% |
|
3 |
45% |
55% |
Median |
4 |
9% |
9% |
|
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
29 |
4% |
28–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
28 |
29 |
4% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
25–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
29 |
5% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
2% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
19–27 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–26 |
20–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–21 |
16–21 |
15–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–20 |
16–21 |
15–22 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
13 |
0% |
12–15 |
12–15 |
12–16 |
11–17 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
12–16 |
12–16 |
11–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
13 |
0% |
12–15 |
12–16 |
11–16 |
11–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
9 |
0% |
8–11 |
8–11 |
7–12 |
7–12 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
9 |
0% |
8–10 |
8–11 |
7–11 |
7–11 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
4% |
97% |
|
28 |
17% |
93% |
|
29 |
32% |
76% |
|
30 |
24% |
43% |
Median |
31 |
15% |
20% |
|
32 |
4% |
4% |
Majority |
33 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
27 |
9% |
95% |
|
28 |
35% |
86% |
Last Result |
29 |
22% |
51% |
|
30 |
16% |
29% |
Median |
31 |
10% |
13% |
|
32 |
2% |
4% |
Majority |
33 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
9% |
97% |
|
28 |
22% |
88% |
|
29 |
16% |
66% |
|
30 |
25% |
50% |
Median |
31 |
20% |
25% |
|
32 |
4% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
27 |
8% |
97% |
|
28 |
28% |
89% |
|
29 |
30% |
61% |
Median |
30 |
19% |
31% |
|
31 |
10% |
12% |
Last Result |
32 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
24 |
9% |
95% |
|
25 |
29% |
86% |
|
26 |
23% |
57% |
Median |
27 |
17% |
34% |
|
28 |
15% |
17% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
3% |
98% |
|
23 |
11% |
95% |
|
24 |
24% |
85% |
Last Result |
25 |
40% |
61% |
Median |
26 |
12% |
20% |
|
27 |
8% |
9% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
7% |
98% |
|
23 |
22% |
91% |
Last Result |
24 |
29% |
69% |
Median |
25 |
19% |
41% |
|
26 |
19% |
21% |
|
27 |
2% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
4% |
98.6% |
|
23 |
16% |
95% |
|
24 |
25% |
78% |
|
25 |
22% |
53% |
Median |
26 |
21% |
31% |
|
27 |
8% |
9% |
Last Result |
28 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
5% |
98% |
|
21 |
11% |
94% |
|
22 |
23% |
83% |
|
23 |
31% |
60% |
|
24 |
14% |
29% |
Median |
25 |
10% |
15% |
|
26 |
4% |
5% |
|
27 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
21 |
9% |
96% |
|
22 |
22% |
87% |
|
23 |
38% |
65% |
|
24 |
18% |
28% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
7% |
10% |
|
26 |
2% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
4% |
98% |
|
17 |
14% |
94% |
|
18 |
23% |
81% |
|
19 |
35% |
57% |
|
20 |
15% |
23% |
Median |
21 |
6% |
8% |
|
22 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
7% |
98% |
|
17 |
19% |
91% |
|
18 |
36% |
72% |
|
19 |
18% |
36% |
Median |
20 |
14% |
17% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
11% |
98.7% |
|
13 |
39% |
88% |
|
14 |
30% |
49% |
Median |
15 |
15% |
19% |
|
16 |
3% |
4% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
8% |
98% |
|
13 |
24% |
90% |
|
14 |
33% |
66% |
|
15 |
26% |
33% |
Median |
16 |
5% |
7% |
|
17 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
11 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
12 |
14% |
96% |
|
13 |
40% |
82% |
|
14 |
17% |
43% |
Median |
15 |
17% |
25% |
|
16 |
7% |
8% |
|
17 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
14% |
97% |
|
9 |
45% |
83% |
|
10 |
24% |
37% |
Median |
11 |
11% |
13% |
|
12 |
2% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
8 |
38% |
96% |
|
9 |
32% |
59% |
Median |
10 |
21% |
27% |
|
11 |
6% |
6% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26 November–3 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 944
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.34%