Opinion Poll by MMR, 26 November–3 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.8–29.6% 24.4–30.0% 23.5–31.0%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.9% 12.5–15.4% 12.1–15.9% 11.8–16.2% 11.2–17.0%
Píratar 9.2% 13.9% 12.5–15.4% 12.1–15.9% 11.8–16.2% 11.2–17.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.5% 8.4–10.9% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.6% 7.3–12.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.1% 6.0–9.4% 5.6–10.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–8.8% 5.1–9.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.5–8.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.4–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 20 18–22 18–22 17–22 17–23
Samfylkingin 7 10 8–10 8–11 7–11 7–12
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–6 4–6 3–6 3–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–5 1–5 0–5 0–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
17 3% 99.5%  
18 10% 97%  
19 22% 87%  
20 28% 65% Median
21 22% 37%  
22 14% 15%  
23 0.6% 0.8%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 4% 100% Last Result
8 20% 96%  
9 25% 76%  
10 46% 51% Median
11 4% 5%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 3% 100%  
8 27% 97%  
9 47% 70% Median
10 20% 24%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100% Last Result
5 31% 99.0%  
6 48% 68% Median
7 18% 20%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 42% 98%  
5 45% 56% Median
6 10% 11%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 4% 100%  
4 37% 96%  
5 48% 59% Median
6 9% 11%  
7 0.9% 1.2%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.8%  
3 9% 99.7%  
4 61% 91% Median
5 27% 30%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0.9% 95%  
2 0% 94%  
3 33% 94%  
4 51% 61% Last Result, Median
5 10% 10%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 45% 55% Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 29 4% 28–31 27–31 26–32 26–33
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 29 4% 27–31 27–31 26–32 25–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 5% 27–31 27–31 26–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 2% 27–31 27–31 26–31 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 26 0% 24–28 24–28 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 23 0% 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–26 20–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 19 0% 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–22
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 13 0% 12–15 12–15 12–16 11–17
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 14 0% 13–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 13 0% 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 9 0% 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 9 0% 8–10 8–11 7–11 7–11

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.5%  
27 4% 97%  
28 17% 93%  
29 32% 76%  
30 24% 43% Median
31 15% 20%  
32 4% 4% Majority
33 0.7% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 4% 99.2%  
27 9% 95%  
28 35% 86% Last Result
29 22% 51%  
30 16% 29% Median
31 10% 13%  
32 2% 4% Majority
33 1.4% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.4% 100%  
26 3% 99.6%  
27 9% 97%  
28 22% 88%  
29 16% 66%  
30 25% 50% Median
31 20% 25%  
32 4% 5% Majority
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.9%  
26 2% 98.9%  
27 8% 97%  
28 28% 89%  
29 30% 61% Median
30 19% 31%  
31 10% 12% Last Result
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.1% 99.9%  
23 4% 98.8%  
24 9% 95%  
25 29% 86%  
26 23% 57% Median
27 17% 34%  
28 15% 17%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.8%  
22 3% 98%  
23 11% 95%  
24 24% 85% Last Result
25 40% 61% Median
26 12% 20%  
27 8% 9%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.6%  
22 7% 98%  
23 22% 91% Last Result
24 29% 69% Median
25 19% 41%  
26 19% 21%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.5% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.8%  
22 4% 98.6%  
23 16% 95%  
24 25% 78%  
25 22% 53% Median
26 21% 31%  
27 8% 9% Last Result
28 1.2% 1.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 5% 98%  
21 11% 94%  
22 23% 83%  
23 31% 60%  
24 14% 29% Median
25 10% 15%  
26 4% 5%  
27 1.0% 1.1%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 3% 99.7%  
21 9% 96%  
22 22% 87%  
23 38% 65%  
24 18% 28% Last Result, Median
25 7% 10%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.7% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 4% 98%  
17 14% 94%  
18 23% 81%  
19 35% 57%  
20 15% 23% Median
21 6% 8%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 7% 98%  
17 19% 91%  
18 36% 72%  
19 18% 36% Median
20 14% 17%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.8% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.2% 100%  
12 11% 98.7%  
13 39% 88%  
14 30% 49% Median
15 15% 19%  
16 3% 4%  
17 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.5% 99.9%  
12 8% 98%  
13 24% 90%  
14 33% 66%  
15 26% 33% Median
16 5% 7%  
17 1.2% 1.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.6%  
12 14% 96%  
13 40% 82%  
14 17% 43% Median
15 17% 25%  
16 7% 8%  
17 1.1% 1.3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 14% 97%  
9 45% 83%  
10 24% 37% Median
11 11% 13%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 3% 99.6%  
8 38% 96%  
9 32% 59% Median
10 21% 27%  
11 6% 6%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations